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You are here: Home / Archives for Poke the Box

Poke the Box

Poke the Box: The Uncomfortable Solution

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days and weeks…

  • Are you right because your stock moved up 200%? Answer here.
  • Is the Sensex heading towards 30,000…40,000…100,000? Find out here.
  • Follow these 5 simple rules of investing successfully in a Modi-fied India

Book Worm
“The Little Book that Builds Wealth” from Pat Dorsey is a wonderful book if you want to understand the concept of economic moats and how companies and their shareholders benefit from them. Here is an important excerpt from the book on the various ways to make money in stocks, and why moat investing stands out…

There are lot of ways to make money in the stock market. You can play the Wall Street game, keep a sharp eye on trends, and try to guess which companies will beat earnings estimates each quarter, but you’ll face quite a lot of competition.

You can buy strong stocks with bullish chart patterns or superfast growth, but you’ll run the risk that no buyers will emerge to take the shares off your hands at a higher price.

You can buy dirt-cheap stocks with little regard for the quality of the underlying business, but you’ll have to balance the outsize returns in the stocks that bounce back with the losses in those that fade from existence.

Or you can simply buy wonderful companies at reasonable prices, and let those companies compound cash over long periods of time. Surprisingly, there aren’t all that many money managers who follow this strategy, even though it’s the one used by some of the world’s most successful investors. (Warren Buffett is the best-known.)

[Read more…] about Poke the Box: The Uncomfortable Solution

Poke the Box: Don’t Pursue Success…Attract It

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days and weeks…

  • My 15 rules of sensible stock market investing. Please don’t follow any of my advice you read in this post. This is what I do and follow myself, and it works for me.
  • Launched a special page on the website – Ask Vishal – where you can seek answers to your investing and related questions. 100+ new members already joined on Day 1, and around 30 questions got asked.
  • I am hearing a lot of financial experts outlining their strategies for the Indian stock market post the election results on 16th May. Some things are indeed useless!
  • If money worries keep you awake at night, you must read this.
  • Opened registrations for my Art of Investing Workshop in Mumbai (1st June) and New Delhi (8th June). If you wish to attend, please register here.

Book Worm
If the thought of losing money in the stock market keeps you awake at nights, here is something very important for you that I read in Peter Lynch’s Beating the Street…

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. This point cannot be overemphasized. Every year finds a spate of books on how to pick stocks or find the winning mutual fund. But all this good information is useless without the willpower.

In dieting and in stocks, it is the gut and not the head that determines the results.

[Read more…] about Poke the Box: Don’t Pursue Success…Attract It

Poke the Box: Never Give Up, Never Give Up, Never Ever Give Up

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days and weeks…

  • Peter Lynch said, “Owning stocks is like having children, don’t get involved with more than you can handle.” Here’s a post that brings together diverse thoughts on how many stocks you should own.
  • Some amazing lessons on life and money I learned from a taxi driver, Kantilal.
  • Here’s an amazing e-book from Balaji Ganesan, a Safal Niveshak tribesman, on behavioural biases and how they impact you in your financial decision making.
  • Carried an interview of value investor and blogger Ninad Kunder on what has shaped his life as an investor. Some really amazing stuff here!

[Read more…] about Poke the Box: Never Give Up, Never Give Up, Never Ever Give Up

Poke the Box: Please Don’t Deny…but See the Positive

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Restarted my analysis of Warren Buffett’s letters to shareholders…this time covering his views on what makes a business great.
  • Launched a new section on the website, titled “Mental Models”, which is aimed to become a repository from which you can create your own latticework of mental models and reframe your investment thought process.
  • Shared the secrets of the world’s best business, and how can you also start one of your own.
  • Nokia got sold to Microsoft, and here are 10 lessons from the mobile giant’s fall.
  • Manish Sharma wrote a comprehensive StockTalk analysis on Bata India, explaining why the business is good but the stock isn’t.
Mental Model of the Week: Self Deception and Denial

“Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true.” ~ Demosthenes

Denial, as the old joke goes, is not just a river in Egypt. It’s proof of modern society’s deepest sins like irrationality and cynicism.

Eric Beinhocker in ‘The Origin of Wealth’ writes – “People have a general bias toward spinning their reality in positive ways and ignoring uncomfortable facts. It takes a real jolt to make them see that everything is not OK.

Jack Welch was infamous for popping the unduly optimistic bubbles of his people, and one of his dicta was that managers must ‘face reality [and] see things as they are…not the way they wished it would be.”

But most of us live a life of constant denial, which is a failure on our part to be able to tell fact from fiction, and, worse, the devastating failure to know ourselves.


In his famous 1974 commencement address at Caltech, American physicist Richard Feynman warned against self-deception: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.”

Austrian philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein said in ‘Culture and Value’: “Nothing is so difficult as not deceiving oneself.”

You see, we have to see the world as it is. Not for what it was or for what we want it to be. Refusing to look at unpleasant facts doesn’t make them disappear.

Often, bad news that is true (like you have lost money on a bad business) is better than good news that is wrong (like you have made money on a bad business that you think is a good business).

So please get over your denial…and stop deceiving yourself!

Book Worm
I am currently reading Daniel Kahneman’s amazing book Thinking, Fast and Slow, and came across his thoughts on Availability Bias…

People tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the ease with which they are retrieved from memory – and this is largely determined by the extent of coverage in the media. Frequently mentioned topics populate the mind even as others slip away from awareness.

In turn, what the media choose to report corresponds to their view of what is currently on the public’s mind. It is no accident that authoritarian regimes exert substantial pressure on independent media. Because public interest is most easily aroused by dramatic events and by celebrities, media feeding frenzies are common.

For several weeks after Michael Jackson’s death, for example, it was virtually impossible to find a television channel reporting on another topic. In contrast, there is little coverage of critical but unexciting issues that provide less drama, such as declining educational standards or overinvestment of medical resources in the last year of life. (As I write this, I notice that my choice of “little-covered” examples was guided by availability. The topics I chose as examples are mentioned often; equally important issues that are less available did not come to my mind.)

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • If you are in a hurry to do something or get somewhere, you ought to stop and read this.
  • Prof. Sanjay Bakshi shared the amazing transcript of his first lecture on behavioural finance to his students at MDI this year.
  • Farnam Street reviews Gary Klein’s book The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights, which Prof. Bakshi also recommended in his transcript mentioned in the above link.
Poke of the Week – See the Positive

“The Mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven.” ~ John Milton

I’m a pretty positive person — I consider it one of the keys to the modest success I’ve had in creating new habits and achieving things in the last few years.

Without seeing the positives in my actions, I couldn’t have begun on my journey of living my passion. I couldn’t have eliminated my debt, or quit my job.

So, I don’t feel that I’m particularly “incredible” – just lucky that I live with a positive attitude towards my life and actions.

Here is what Roger von Oech writes in one of his creative whack pack cards…

Most people have a warning device in their minds to alert them to new ideas. Unless the idea cleanly dovetails into what they’re doing, they’ll react by saying:

“It won’t work.”
“It’s dumb.”
“I don’t get it.”

When you evaluate new ideas, however, remember that your purpose is to help get good ideas produced — not to revel in the beauty of your criticism.

Thus, when you judge new ideas, focus initially on their positive and interesting features. This will counteract a natural negative bias, and help you to develop more ideas.

When you start feeling like the idea of being a positive person is hard to achieve, remind yourself that all it takes is one small step in the right direction to move yourself toward a more positive attitude.

Believe in yourself and remember the most important lesson of all: A positive outlook is a choice that you can always make.

Finally, Herm Albright said – “A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.” 🙂

Well, if you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Saturday mornings.

Keep poking.

Stop denying the obvious.

Stop deceiving yourself.

See the positive.

Be kind to your heart.

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: Wish Warren Buffett, and Embrace Your Failures

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Warren Buffett completes 83 years on this planet today. A good way to wish the legend is to get inspired by a few amazing words of wisdom he has said over these years. Here are 10 Buffett quotes – Part 1 and Part 2 – to inspire you.
  • As markets continue their fall, here are five stocks I’m watching. (Statutory Warning: Acting on any of these stocks without doing your homework may be injurious to your wealth and health).
  • I mentally sold off all my stocks, and loved the entire process of doing it. Try selling your own stocks mentally. Believe me, it’ll be an enlightening experience.
  • Closed admissions to the first batch of The Safal Niveshak Mastermind after an over-whelming response. Thank you tribesmen! In case you missed out joining, you can now pre-register for the second batch that will open in a few months.
Mental Model of the Week: Cumulative Error

Do you remember playing the “telephone game” in your childhood where a secret message was whispered from child to child until it was announced out loud by the final recipient?

To the delight of all, the message was typically transformed into something new and bizarre, no matter the sincerity and care given to each retelling.

You see, when information travels through multiple channels – like in the telephone game – it’s easy for some elements of the message to get distorted — by biases, or simple human error.

The effect of the spread of misinformation is called “cumulative error”, like you see in this stock market cartoon…


Living in an age where information can travel across the world in nanoseconds, this concept has never been more real or dangerous.

So, when a company’s management says something, the lead analyst hears something else, his report to the fund manager says something else, the fund manager understands something else, his broker understands something else, the broker’s analyst assumes something else, he blurts out something else to the TV anchor, the anchor – thinking how smart she is – shouts out something else, and you – enamoured with the anchor – understand something else.

If I were to condense the history of stock investing mistakes in a few words, those will be what you just read!

Somehow, we expect information to be faithful to its origin, no matter what history might have corrupted it. And that’s why it is so important to cut yourself from the noise – that create cumulative errors – and concentrate on independent thinking.

This is especially true while investing your hard-earned money, where you don’t just need to minimize mistakes, but minimize cumulative mistakes – those that add up to wreak havoc on your savings.

A joke isn’t funny anymore if it’s repeated too much. The same goes with information. The more you hear the same things, the more they get dangerous.

So please be careful!

Book Worm
I was re-reading Warren Buffett’s 1962 letter to shareholders and came across these words…

A lot of value can be obtained for the price paid. This substantial excess of value creates a comfortable margin of safety in each transaction. This individual margin of safety, coupled with a diversity of commitments creates a most attractive package of safety and appreciation potential.

Here is something from his 1992 letter that must be the cornerstone of every value investor’s philosophy…

We insist on a margin of safety in our purchase price. If we calculate the value of a common stock to be only slightly higher than its price, we’re not interested in buying. We believe this margin-of-safety principle, so strongly emphasized by Ben Graham, to be the cornerstone of investment success.

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • Forbes carried a nice piece on the eight ways to think like Warren Buffett.
  • Another Forbes stuff, this time the top 100 quotes to inspire you.
  • Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Sawn and Antifragile, offers 5 ways to have a great day.
  • When Buffett was just 21, here is how he thought and analyzed a company 🙂
  • Some really interesting suggestions on saving the Indian rupee.
Poke of the Week – Failure Liberates Success

“Failure is not something to be avoided but something to be cultivated. … It is a sign of weakness and often a stigma that prohibits second chances. … Yet the rise in the West is in many respects due to the rise in tolerating failure. Indeed, many immigrants trained in a failure-intolerant culture may blossom out of stagnancy once moved into a failure-tolerant culture. Failure liberates success.” ~ Kevin Kelly, author of What Technology Wants.

I have learned a lot of life lessons just seeing my daughter grow up. Like when she was just a year old and was trying to take her first steps and repeatedly fell down, she tried again…and again…and again.

Sometimes she laughed. Sometimes she cried. Sometimes she laughed and cried at the same time.

But she kept trying and trying…laughing and crying. She did not labelled her experience as a “failure”. She just enjoyed it.

Unlike us adults, our babies don’t know the possibility of a failure, so they happily keep falling down until one day they take a few steps, and then a few more. Before long, they’re jumping and running. All their trying pays off.

They fall but never fail.

As grown-ups, what if we also simply choose not to fail?

What if we treat our mistakes and failures as not things to be avoided but things to be cultivated?

Like Warren Buffett said…

“You’re going to make mistakes. You can’t play in the game without making any mistakes. I don’t think about it, I just move on. Most business mistakes are irreversible setbacks, but you get another chance. There are two things in life that you don’t get another chance at – marrying the wrong person and what you do with your children. Business, you just go on. It’s a mistake to dwell on mistakes, it’s unproductive. It’s like Mark Twain’s story about the cat that sat on a hot stove – he never sat on a hot stove again, but he never sat on a cold one again either.”

Life teaches us each day that stuff happens (and sometimes shit happens!), but we don’t need to give each of our experiences a label.

Good, bad, hard, easy, success, failure etc. do not exist but as labels in our minds.

All we need to do to hold our head high is to break through these labels.

Well, if you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Friday mornings.

Keep poking.

Embrace your failures.

Be nice to your family.

Be kind to your heart.

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: Face Your Problem…Like that of Being a Bad Investor

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Launched The Safal Niveshak Mastermind – one-year course to help your reinvent how your invest, work, and live – and have received a great response so far. So that you don’t miss out on this Course, subscribe before it closes on 25th August. Know more and subscribe here.
  • Recently started a survey on investor psychology, and the results have surprised me! Before I share the results and my analysis on coming Monday, please participate in it by visiting this page.
  • There was a massacre on Dalal Street this week. If you are worried about falling stock prices, first delete you online portfolio tracker :-), and then read this.
  • I have 40 reasons you are a bad investor!
Mental Model of the Week: Contrast Effect

Robert Cialdini, in his book Influence, shares a story of two brothers, Sid and Harry, who owned a men’s tailor shop…

Whenever the salesman, Sid, had a new customer trying on suits in front of the shop’s three-sided mirror, he would admit to a hearing problem, and, as they talked, he would repeatedly request that the man speak more loudly to him. Once the customer had found a suit he liked and had asked for the price, Sid would call to his brother, the head tailor, at the back of the room, “Harry, how much for this suit?”

Looking up from his work — and greatly exaggerating the suit’s true price — Harry would call back, “For that beautiful all-wool suit, forty-two dollars.” Pretending not to have heard and cupping his hand to his ear, Sid would ask again. Once more Harry would reply, “Forty-two dollars.” At this point, Sid would turn to the customer and report, “He says twenty-two dollars.”

Many a man would hurry to buy the suit and scramble out of the shop with his “expensive = good” bargain before Poor Sid discovered the “mistake”.

Well, Sid and Harry made their moolah even as the customer thought he got a ‘great’ deal! 🙂

Now look at this image below. The black dots you see are fleeting, and any individual dot will turn white as soon as you focus on it. Clearly, all the dots are actually white, yet at a glance we still perceive some of them as being black.


This is due to a principle in human perception, called the “contrast effect”, which affects the way we see the difference between two things that are presented one after another.

The contrast affect also works when we are studying physical appearances of people. Research investigating attractiveness reflects the importance of physical appearance.

Despite common phrases such as ‘beauty is only skin deep,’ there is no longer any doubt that being attractive has its benefits.

Attractive individuals are consistently treated significantly better than their unattractive counterparts. Additionally, attractive adults are judged more positively in work-related competence than unattractive counterparts, and are perceived as higher in social appeal and interpersonal abilities.

These results hold true even when familiarity is taken into account. Not only are opinions influenced by attractiveness, but behavior towards attractive children and adults echo the importance of being physically attractive.


So if you are talking to a beautiful woman at a party and are then joined by an unattractive one, the second woman will strike you as less attractive than she actually is.

Just look at how big accounting scams are created.

Here is what Ramalinga Raju’s aides at Satyam must have told him before the scam came to light – “If we slowly and gradually over time manipulate the numbers, the auditors won’t notice it.”

Incidentally, in this case, even the auditors were involved! But the Satyam scam did not come to light till Raju confessed of riding a tiger.

You see, contrasts may blind us to change until it’s too late. For example, we often don’t notice the bad behavior of others (like we ignore “small” accounting manipulations at companies) if it goes sour gradually over time. Often we see reality as constant, although it gradually changes.

It is, after all, the small, gradual, invisible changes that harm us the most.

Book Worm
I recently bought Rolf Dobelli’s The Art of Thinking Clearly on the suggestion of Prof. Sanjay Bakshi. And I haven’t put it down ever since.

Here is what Dobelli has written about the Contrast Effect…

When we encounter contrasts, we react like birds to a gunshot: we jump up and get moving. Our weak spot: we don’t notice small, gradual changes. A magician can make your watch vanish because, when he presses on one part of your body, you don’t notice the lighter touch on your wrist as he relieves you of your Rolex.

Similarly, we fail to notice how our money disappears. It constantly loses its value, but we do not notice because inflation happens over time. If it were imposed on us in the form of a brutal tax (and basically that’s what it is), we would be outraged.

The contrast effect can ruin your whole life: a charming woman marries a fairly average man. But because her parents were awful people, the ordinary man appears to be a prince.

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • Sad to see this all around me, but from park swings to medical seats, competition to outsmart others and squeeze through the system starts early for the Indian child.
  • India’s capitalistic companies continue to believe in deal-making with the ‘babus’ than following the rules of the game ethically. Maybe, deal-making is what they consider a rule!
  • Leo Babauta of Zen Habits on why you must simplify your life and let go of your crutches.
  • Jana Vembunarayanan, a Safal Niveshak tribesman, writes on the five elements of effective thinking on his amazing blog.
Poke of the Week – Appreciate Your Problem

“That which opposes produces a benefit.” ~ Heraclitus

There was a time when I was slightly overweight and combined with the rigorous daily travel, suffered from a very bad backache. I didn’t feel in control of my health, because I couldn’t give enough time to improve it.

Or maybe the lack of time was just an excuse to not consider my health a priority. Thinking about my deteriorating health made me feel horrible, so I didn’t want to even think about it!

It was a downward spiral, and really hard to stop.

Most of us don’t like the problems, conflicts, and challenges we face in our lives, because these seem like roadblocks in the path of what we are trying to do.

But Heraclitus, as he writes in the above comment, invites us to consider how these problems — the headwinds we face or things that are moving against us — can benefit us.

If you are an investor in the stock market, your current portfolio of stocks may seem like a big problem to you achieving your financial goals, especially given that stocks across the board are falling like ninepins (and those talked about on Safal Niveshak are falling even faster :-))

So, as a result, one of the following might happen:

  1. You eliminate the problem by selling duds from your portfolio even while suffering the losses but avoiding permanent loss of capital;
  2. You find a few other stocks that are much better businesses and are available cheap after the crash;
  3. You question whether you really want to stress out speculating in stocks and would rather learn the rules of sensible investing that will earn you lower short-term return than speculation, but much higher return per unit of stress.

In short, the problem you think you are facing currently can lead you to stop and re-think what you were doing all this while, and thus lead you to something good.

Think about it: the history of discovery and invention is filled with people whose routines were interrupted and who were forced to come up with alternative solutions.

Even America was discovered as a by-product of the Europeans’s search for pepper!

So, think of the biggest problem you are facing currently and positive things you can discover in seeking the solution?

Like, ask yourself this question now – “What would I have been doing if money was not a problem?”

Then, just do it!

Idea Source: Creative Whack Pack

Well, if you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Saturday mornings.

Keep poking.

Appreciate your problem.

Subscribe to Mastermind. 🙂

And please watch Bhaag Milkha Bhaag!

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: Have Fun Today, and Please Avoid Death

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • In life and investing, “It will never happen to me!” is a widely held but dangerous notion. You must avoid it at all costs!
  • There’s this one great investment you can ever make for yourself and your loved ones. I’m already making it. What about you?
  • Here’s your chance to get into the mind of one of the best Indian investment thinkers. Prof. Sanjay Bakshi agrees for a second interview for Safal Niveshak. Ask him your question here.


One Year Course in Value Investing

Join The Safal Niveshak Mastermind, my special one-year course in Value Investing to reinvent how you invest and take control of your financial life. Click here to know more and subscribe. Subscriptions for the first batch close on 25th August 2013!


Mental Model of the Week: Second-Level Thinking

Here is what Ben Graham wrote in The Intelligent Investor…

“The art of investment has one characteristic that is not generally appreciated. A creditable, if unspectacular, result can be achieved by the lay investor with a minimum of effort and capability; but to improve this easily attainable standard requires much application and more than a trace of wisdom.”

The ironical truth about investing is that, despite hundreds of rules that guide the practice of being an investor, there is no rule that works all the time, and in the same manner.

Investing is, after all, not like a game of football where the ground and the ball remain the same throughout the ninety minutes of play. It’s more like cricket where the pitch changes its behaviour with every new ball, and the ball changes is shape every time it’s bowled.

So, when you are an investor, the environment in which you play isn’t controllable, and circumstances rarely repeat exactly. What’s most important then is how you behave when others are behaving oddly.

One of the best tools to think and behave better in investing is what Howard Marks calls the “second level thinking”. Here is how Marks explains it in his book The Most Important Thing…

  • First-level thinking says, “It’s a good company; let’s buy the stock.” Second-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.”
  • First-level thinking says, “The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.” Second-level thinking says, “The outlook stinks, but everyone else is selling in panic. Buy!”
  • First-level thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall; sell.” Second-level thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall less than people expect, and the pleasant surprise will lift the stock; buy.”

In other words, first-level thinking, as the name suggests, is what comes to our mind first. And given that our mind is searching for simplicity, in most cases, this kind of thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority, like in investing).

In essence, if you wish to perform better than the rest – or in other words, perform better than average – your thoughts actions, expectations, and portfolio have to diverge from the norm.

Most importantly, you don’t have to be just different, you also must get it right…not 100% of the times, but it’s good to aim for a distinction…that is 75%. And for that, you need to practice second-level thinking.

Book Worm
Here is what Howard Marks writes on investing defensively in his amazing book The Most Important Thing…

When friends ask me for personal investment advice, my first step is to try to understand their attitude toward risk and return. Asking for investment advice without specifying that is like asking a doctor for a good medicine without telling him or her what ails you.

So I ask, “Which do you care about more, making money or avoiding losses?” The answer is invariably the same: both. The problem is that you can’t simultaneously go all out for both profit making and loss avoidance. Each investor has to take a position regarding these two goals, and usually that requires striking a reasonable balance. The decision should be made consciously and rationally.

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • Handy list of some great books on the psychology behind human decision making and irrationality
  • Great, practical way to avoid death!
  • Bihar orders head-teachers to taste all school lunches before they are served to children. Now that’s a simple solution to a complex situation.
  • Anyone can learn from their own experience. The competitive advantage comes from being able to learn from the experience of others. Now, what about learning from history’s most hated?
Poke of the Week – Make it Fun

“Those who approach life like a child playing a game, moving and pushing pieces, possess the power of kings.” ~ Heraclitus

Sure, children are stubborn, noisy, and often hard to deal with. But they also possess some of the most fearless and creative minds in the world, a trait that should be made second nature to anyone grown up.

My daughter, for instance, won’t take “I don’t know” for her “Why?” questions. She is fearless in the face of things I consider as daunting – like trying something new.

She will look at everything in a new, fresh way. For her, there isn’t “one right way” do a thing.

To a child the world is a playground and everything therein is a toy. If, as grown-ups, we can look at life, work, and our problems in the same way and then try to find solutions, we would indeed possess power of kings.

You see, there is always enjoyment hiding in what you do, you just have to find it. Start taking a look at your world with a renewed sense of vigour, like a child does.

You will be much happier with the results of your hard work.

The renowned chair designer Bill Stumpf was once asked what criteria he used to select new projects.

He responded – “There are three things I look for in my work: I hope to learn something, I want to make some money, and I’d like to have some fun. If the project doesn’t have the promise of satisfying at least two of these, then I don’t sign on.”

That’s the way to go!

If you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Saturday mornings.

Keep poking.

Play like a child.

Have fun.

Please avoid death.

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: The Downside of Envy

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Rs 25 lac is good enough saving for an Indian middle class family over a period of 5-6 years. But how about an “extra” Rs 25 lac? Here’s how you can achieve it.
  • People find it difficult to confess their mistakes in the open. Not the Safal Niveshak tribesmen! Read a big bunch of confessions from readers who have lost a lot of money in stocks they now think were big mistakes (good revelation in hindsight :-)). By the way, if you haven’t confessed yet, what are you waiting for?
Mental Model of the Week: Envy

“It is not greed that drives the world, but envy,” said Warren Buffett many years ago.

Recently, Farhan and Raju validated this in the movie 3 Idiots…


We often evaluate our own situation by comparing what we have with what others have.

The rigours of modern life – and the social necessity of keeping up with the Joneses – makes this weakness even more pronounced.

Here is an excerpt from Dan Ariely’s “Predictably Irrational” that I’m sure you would relate with your own life (like I could)…

A few years ago, for instance, I met with one of the top executives of one of the big investment companies. Over the course of our conversation he mentioned that one of his employees had recently come to him to complain about his salary.

“How long have you been with the firm?” the executive asked the young man.

“Three years. I came straight from college,” was the answer.

“And when you joined us, how much did you expect to be making in three years?”

“I was hoping to be making about a hundred thousand.”

The executive eyed him curiously.

“And now you are making almost three hundred thousand, so how can you possibly complain?” he asked.

“Well,” the young man stammered, “it’s just that a couple of the guys at the desks next to me, they’re not any better than I am, and they are making three hundred ten.”

The executive shook his head.

You see, envy is a tricky emotion. It exists on the edges of our consciousness. We don’t like to admit that we envy someone, especially if that someone is someone we don’t like or to whom we feel superior.

Subsequently, we’re as likely to deny we’re in the grip of envy not only to others but to ourselves. And that’s when it becomes a deadly sin, even as far as investing is concerned.

Like, look at this friend of mine who sold off his HUL shares a few months back at Rs 450, and then bought them again recently at Rs 700.

“Why?” I asked him in a sense of intrigue and disgust.

“Because I didn’t wanted to miss out on gains like others have made recently,” he revealed.

This reminded me of the story of Newton and his tryst with the stock of South Sea Company in 1720…


I find a lot of such Newtons around me…and often in the mirror! 🙂

Financial historian Charles Kindleberger wrote in “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” – “There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich.”

It was for good reason, after all, that the Ten Commandments admonished – “Neither shall you desire your neighbor’s house nor field, or male or female slave, or donkey or anything that belongs to your neighbor.”

Now, how do you get over your envy?

You can’t…simply because human nature makes us compare ourselves with others all the time. That’s the way our brains have been wired.

But you can still try. How?

  • Never envy your neighbour and never be owned by pride.
  • Remind yourself this each day – “I will not run a rat race because even if I win, I will still be a rat.”
  • Don’t try to mimic what those around you are doing. They may have a totally different purpose in life.
  • If someone else is getting richer faster than you by, for example, investing in risky stocks, so what? Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy. (Indian CEOs eyeing the “Forbes Richest” list need to read this!)

Finally, remember what Charlie Munger said – “Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?”

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • When is the last time you thought about how you think? Here’s a nice little post from Farnam Street on the five elements of effective thinking.
  • Here’s another reason I read a lot, and why even you should.
  • Stress kills, and big time! Here are three effective ways to free yourself from your addiction to stress.
  • The Economist recently posed this question to a few of today’s leading writers – “What was the greatest speech ever?” The result will surely make you proud.

Keep poking.

Avoid envy.

Avoid falling in love with your ideas.

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: Make a Ruckus, Take Risks…but Remember Base Rates

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Released StockTalk 2.0 report on India’s leading IT services company, TCS. See some interesting discussion in the Comments section of the report.
  • Safal Niveshak turned two on 11th July, so relived the amazing journey so far. I want to thank you, dear tribesman, for raising this initiative to this point — it truly could not have happened without your support!
Mental Model of the Week: Base Rates

I heard this recently in a radio ad of a leading insurance company – “For every minute you are stuck in the traffic, we settle five claims.”

Sounds great, right? Five claims in one minute is quite a number.

“But, five out of how many claims that you receive, sir?” I wanted to ask. When I got back home and checked the claim-settlement number, it was around 70%! Now that’s poor!

“There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact,” said Sherlock Holmes.

Then, Bertrand Russell said, “Obviousness is always the enemy to correctness.”

It happens so often in life that we come out with wrong conclusions because they seem the obvious based on a single observed effect.

When someone remarked to the French writer Voltaire, “Life is hard,” he retorted, “Compared to what?”

We tend to ignore alternatives, and therefore we fail to make appropriate comparisons. Often we only consider information or evidence that is presented or available and don’t consider that information may be missing.

In effect, we ignore the base rates, which simply mean that if 1% of the public were “medical professionals”, and 99% of the public were not “medical professionals”, then the base rate of medical professionals is simply 1%.

In the same way, if 2% of penny stocks earn good long-term return, and 98% don’t, then the base rate of success in penny stock investing is just 2%.


Here is what Prof. Sanjay Bakshi said in his interview with Safal Niveshak…



One of the great lessons from studying history is to do with “base rates”. “Base rate” is a technical term of describing odds in terms of prior probabilities. The base rate of having a drunken-driving accident is higher than those of having accidents in a sober state.

So, what’s the base rate of investing in IPOs? When you buy a stock in an IPO, and if you flip it, you make money if it’s a hot IPO. If it’s not a hot IPO, you lose money.

But what’s the base rate – the averaged out experience – the prior probability of the activity of subscribing for IPOs – in the long run?

If you do that calculation, you’ll find that the base rate of IPO investing (in fact, it’s not even investing…it’s speculating) sucks!

That’s the case, not just in India, but in every market, in different time periods.

What you don’t see can really kill you! And people don’t see the base rates.

——-

When you evaluate whether smoking is good for you or not, if you look at the average experience of 1,000 smokers and compare them with a 1,000 non-smokers, you’ll see what happens.

People don’t do that. They get influenced by individual stories like a smoker who lived till he was 95. Such a smoker will force many people to ignore base rates, and to focus on his story, to fool themselves into believing that smoking can’t be all that bad for them.

What is the base rate of investing in leveraged companies in bull markets?



By the way, here are some base rates of dying for different reasons (as per the US National Center for Health Statistics)…

  • Hand gliding – 1 in 560
  • Grand Prix racing – 1 in 100
  • Motorbike racing – 1 in 1,000
  • Mountain climbing – 1 in 1,750
  • Bicycling – 1 in 140,000
  • Running/Swimming– 1 in 1 Million (1 Million = 10 Lac)
  • Car driving – 16 in 100,000 drivers
  • Motorcycle riding – 21.5 in 100 million vehicle miles
  • Airplane – 1.3 deaths in 100,000 flight hours
  • Smokers – 22x more likely to die of lung cancer than non-smokers
  • Lifelong smokers – 50% die before age 70
  • Dance parties – 1 in 100,000

Finally, regardless of all risks, your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years!

So watch out for base rates before making any decision in life (and investing), and please be careful.

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • Why are so many powerful people so corrupt? Here’s an amazing piece on how power corrupts the mind.
  • A nice little interview of Prof. Aswath Damodaran on the difference between an investment philosophy and investment strategy.
  • The ever-so-amazing Jason Zweig (the editor of the latest version of Graham’s ‘The Intelligent Investor’) writes on how he continues his work of saving investors from themselves.
Poke of the Week – Take Risks

The leading American entrepreneur, author and public speaker Seth Godin has had a great influence on my life as a writer and thinker.

In his recent book titled The Icarus Deception, Seth writes about the story of Icarus, whose father Daedalus fashioned two pairs of wings out of wax and feathers for himself and his son to fly out of a prison they were captivated in.

Daedalus tried his wings first, but before taking off from the island, warned his son not to fly too close to the sun, nor too close to the sea, but to follow his path of flight. However, overcome by the giddiness that flying lent him, Icarus soared through the sky curiously, but in the process he came too close to the sun, which melted the wax.

Icarus kept flapping his wings but soon realized that he had no feathers left and that he was only flapping his bare arms, and so he fell into the sea.

The Icarus myth is often used as an example of when hubris or over-confidence – of flying too high – can go badly wrong.

However Seth, in his book, points out that there is another part of the story – Icarus’s father Daedalus also told his son not to fly too low as the water could also damage his wings.

As per Seth – “Society has altered the myth, encouraging us to forget the part about the sea, and created a culture where we constantly remind one another about the dangers of standing up, standing out, and making a ruckus.”

However, he writes, settling for too little is “a far more common failing”.

You see, we all have the potential to do great work in life. However to do so, we need to leave our comfort zones – to fly closer to the sun, and to fail sometimes.

If you’re not failing every now and again, it’s a sign you’re not doing anything very innovative.

Looking from another angle, if you’re hitting bull’s-eye every time, maybe you’re standing too close to the target.

Like when it comes to investing, I have a long list of great stocks that I did not buy or sold early, for a simple reason that I feared taking some risk.

But since these errors of omission won’t show up in my profit and loss account, I often ignore them.

The reality is that our errors of omission – not flying high and close to the sun – can be more costly than the errors of commission – flying too close to the waters.

Thankfully, what I omitted – taking risks – in my investing life, I committed in my work life, and that led me to quit my job to pursue my passion.

Ask yourself what stops you from taking risks in your life – not risks based on arrogance and blind overconfidence, but well-calculated risks like…

  • Building up a saleable skill that people would pay for, and then telling your boss that you won’t need his services soon
  • Telling your boss how his excel-based projections could go haywire
  • Starting a business that you have been wanting for years
  • Researching businesses and then investing in them independently
  • Spending time learning a third, or a fourth language
  • Learning how to swim or drive…or cook

Arthur Koestler put it so well – “If the Creator had a purpose in equipping us with a neck, he certainly would have meant for us to stick it out.”


Just answer this question – “What would our world look like if more people moved out of their comfort zones, made a ruckus, and took risks to change their and others’ lives?”

Maybe this could be your permission slip.

If you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Saturday mornings.

Keep poking.

Make a ruckus.

Take risks.

Remember base rates.

Please try to quit smoking.

Till next weekend…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

Poke the Box: Look at the Sky…but Please Ask Why

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days…

  • Released StockTalk 2.0 report on leading oil and gas exploration and production company Cairn India. See some interesting discussion in the Comments section of the report.
  • Shared Charlie Munger’s wisdom on living a happy life and getting rich.
Mental Model of the Week: Social Proof

Have you ever been in a situation when you looked at the sky, or at something, just because someone else was staring there? Like in this image below…


I remember playing a few of such pranks during school days, when a group of us friends started looking at the sky and then giggling at passers-by following us in doing so.

It’s another matter that I did not realize then that I was getting the passers-by to indulge in what psychologists call as “social proof”.

As per Wikipedia, social proof is – …a psychological phenomenon where people assume the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior for a given situation. This effect is prominent in ambiguous social situations where people are unable to determine the appropriate mode of behavior, and is driven by the assumption that surrounding people possess more knowledge about the situation.

In simple words, social proof is all about ‘what-you-think-I-think…what-you-do-I-do”.

Social proof is what is at work in canned laughter – what you hear in comedy shows. The reason such laughter exists is because it causes the audience to laugh longer and more often when humorous material is presented and to rate the material as funnier.

In fact, you will hear the laughter even when there’s nothing to laugh about. I propose they add such laughter to business channels as well, so that people stressed hearing the experts can get a few laughs. 🙂

Social proof applies especially to the way we decide what constitutes correct behaviour. We view a behaviour as more correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it.

Whether the question is what to do with an empty popcorn box in a movie theatre, how fast to drive on a certain stretch of highway, or what to put on the plate at a dinner party, the actions of those around us will be important in defining the answer.

Social proof works to both our advantage and disadvantage. When someone shouts “Bomb!” at a packed theatre, it pays to run with others for safety without being analytical.

It also helps us find books we’ll like (Amazon reviews), restaurants to eat at (Zomato, Burrp), and places to travel (TripAdvisor). We don’t make our decisions in a choice vacuum. Our social circles influence our actions and our purchases, and that’s normal.

Anyways, social proof also works in stock market investing.

Why do you think most of us are always on the lookout for others’ opinions on the stocks we own or want to own?

Social proof is the reason you will find most fund managers owing similar stocks in their portfolios. The thinking is – “If I outperform, I will be a star…but if I underperform, I will be like others!”

But then, Somerset Maugham said, “If 40 million people say a foolish thing, it does not become a wise one.”

You will scold your child who misbehaves and then says, “But everybody else is doing it.” Have you ever scolded yourself for investing like everyone else is doing?

Social proof also works at a bigger level…inside companies. That is what drives most CEOs to act like their peers. So they will acquire companies just because a competitor is doing so. And they will conduct accounting frauds just because many others are doing so!

Warren Buffett on Social Proof
Here is what Warren Buffett wrote to his managers in September 2006, when his peers in corporate America were all under the spell of social proof to justify their misdoings…

The five most dangerous words in business may be “Everybody else is doing it.” A lot of banks and insurance companies have suffered earnings disasters after relying on that rationale.

Even worse have been the consequences from using that phrase to justify the morality of proposed actions. More than 100 companies so far have been drawn into the stock option backdating scandal and the number is sure to go higher. My guess is that a great many of the people involved would not have behaved in the manner they did except for the fact that they felt others were doing so as well. The same goes for all of the accounting gimmicks to manipulate earnings – and deceive investors – that has taken place in recent years.

You would have been happy to have as an executor of your will or your son-in-law most of the people who engaged in these ill-conceived activities. But somewhere along the line they picked up the notion – perhaps suggested to them by their auditor or consultant – that a number of well-respected managers were engaging in such practices and therefore it must be OK to do so. It’s a seductive argument.

But it couldn’t be more wrong. In fact, every time you hear the phrase “Everybody else is doing it” it should raise a huge red flag. Why would somebody offer such a rationale for an act if there were a good reason available? Clearly the advocate harbors at least a small doubt about the act if he utilizes this verbal crutch.

Avoiding Social Proof
How to get over the social proof tendency? Here is some advice from Peter Bevelin’s Seeking Wisdom…

  • The 19th Century American poet Ralph Waldo Emerson said: “It is easy in the world to live after the world’s opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own; but the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude.”
  • What is popular is not always right. If you don’t like what other people are doing, don’t do it. Warren Buffett says: “We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or great numbers of people agree with us. Nor do we derive comfort if they don’t.”
  • Disregard what others are doing and think for yourself. Ask: Does this make sense? Remember the advice from Benjamin Graham, the dean of financial analysis – “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it – even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.”

Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read during the week gone by…

  • It takes years to build a reputation, but a few moments to destroy it. Ask Rajat Gupta, the poster boy of what was right with Indians, and now, what is wrong with Indians.
  • Daniel Kahneman shares some wonderful insights on how your brain leads you astray, and how you can make sense of this senseless world. Watch the video or read the transcript.
  • Was Einstein the world’s worst husband? Wife ordered to keep room tidy, serve three meals a day – but expect NO affection… and she must stop talking when he demands it!
  • Why hotels don’t offer you toothpastes? Here’s the resolved mystery.
  • The world’s largest democracy is preparing to snoop on its citizens. Watch out for what you talk on phone or browse on the Internet!
Poke of the Week – Ask “Why?”

“Why can’t I buy that toy, papa?” “You already have another one like that.” “But why can’t I buy one more?” “You won’t like playing with two similar toys. Isn’t it?”

“Why are you saying this?” “I know that dear, because I was a kid myself!” “Why have you grown up, papa? If you were still small, you could have played and enjoyed with me and my toys!”

“Everyone has to grow up, my baby!” “Why papa?”

Why? Why? Why?

If you’re a parent of a small child, you most likely hear this question several times during a day – “Why?”

While all children are inquisitive, there are some who love to prick your brain by asking questions until they find a satisfactory reply from you. My 8-year old daughter falls in this very category of hyper-inquisitives.

I find myself bombarded with her questions every now and then. There are some questions that I have replies for. And then there are many for which I have no replies.

But I enjoy her questions as they most often force me to think beyond the obvious to pull out the answers that satisfied her inquisitiveness.

There is a reason a child asks so many ‘Why?’ questions. And this is something most of us adults don’t understand.

The reason is that when a child asks a question on a subject she is not familiar with, she has no point of reference. She’s coming from nowhere in her inquisitiveness regarding her question.

It’s same as you walking into a space scientists convention. Would you be able to understand the intelligent discussion that’s going on, or even ask a simple question that didn’t give the scientists the hint that that you don’t fit in with the crowd?

I bet most of us couldn’t, because most of us have no point of reference regarding space science. Similarly, a child will continue to ask questions till the time she gets something that she understands and appreciates.

So ask questions. Don’t be afraid to show your ignorance!

Give yourself a license to expose your lack of knowledge about a particular subject, and ask “why is that?”

That’s the fastest way to get a little wiser each day.

By the way, can you please tell me if we call oranges ‘oranges,’ why don’t we call bananas ‘yellows,’ or apples ‘reds’? 🙂

If you haven’t done it already, sign up here to receive Poke the Box in your email…and get ready for stimulating Friday mornings.

Keep poking.

Look at the cloudy sky.

Keep asking why.

Till next Friday…

Vishal Khandelwal
Chief Poker – Poke the Box

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