Investing Behaviour

The Most Important Thing That Counts in Investing

One story from World War II that I found as tragic as it was magnificent was that of Anne Frank.

Frank was born in Frankfurt, Germany but moved to the Netherlands for safety in 1934, five years after she was born. The Frank family hid in their basement with four other Jews when Germany took control of the Netherlands.

Anne then began to write, at age thirteen, in a diary of her life, feelings and the outside world. She wrote in the diary every day for two years until their hiding place was found and she was forced into a concentration camp where she died with her sister due to a sickness. She was just fifteen when she died.

Although Anne wasn’t only a tragic girl in this war, her diary that is available to read as The Diary of a Young Girl displays the strength of her character. The diary portrays her as a brave and hopeful girl, character traits that are hard to manage in the kind of hardship that she was a part of.

Shut Up and Wait

Morgan Housel, who appears on The One Percent Show tomorrow, tweeted this four years back –

I completely agree with Morgan, and also that ‘shut up and wait’ is one of the sanest advices you will ever receive, and must follow, for wealth creation.

Just that doing this is not that easy.

The idea of buying and holding high-quality businesses over a long period of time is simple. Everyone knows that, and even those who don’t practice it appreciate that this works with most high-quality businesses as history has proven time and again. But then, it’s important to understand that the action of not doing anything over such a long period of time involves hundreds of decisions over months and years that lead to such inaction.

Like this –

Now, one way is to buy high-quality businesses and forget for 20 years and hope to end up with a fortune. There are quite a few such fairy tales you may have heard of. But the other side of the picture is that countless people have also ended with duds in their portfolios, or vanished companies, when they realized their father or grandfather had bought some stocks and forgot about them for 20 or more years.

So, overall, it’s not easy. And it’s not supposed to be easy.

But if you have done your homework well, and keep your eyes and ears open, ‘shut up and wait’ remains the best bet in your pursuit of wealth creation from stocks.

And like Frank Partnoy wrote this in a brilliant article many years back –

If we are limited to just one word of wisdom about decision-making for children born a hundred years from now, people who will have all our advantages and limitations as human beings but will need to navigate an unimaginably faster-paced world than the one we confront now, there is no doubt what that word should be.

Wait.

Better, shut up and wait.

What to Do When There’s No Stock to Buy?

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: The second print of my book – The Sketchbook of Wisdom – is now available. Click here to reserve your copy. Send me an email at vishal@safalniveshak.com if you wish to place bulk orders.

* * *

Investing is difficult.

But not investing – sitting with cash and not finding stocks worth buying – is more painful.

After all, to most of us, activity equals achievement.

The need to remain active at all times is what leads CEOs to make bad capital allocation decisions, especially during heady times. And that is what leads most investors – big or small – to buy overpriced stocks.

We all want to be in the thick of action – largely because we hate the feeling of missing out on the party.

Of Free Brains and Effortless Money

* * *
In the hospital, the relatives gathered in the waiting room, where a family member lay gravely ill. The doctor came in looking tired and dull.

“I’m afraid I’m the bearer of bad news,” he said as he surveyed the worried faces. “The only hope left for your loved one at this time is a brain transplant.”

“Oh, how risky is the procedure?” a relative asked.

“It’s an experimental procedure, very risky,” the doctor replied, “but it is the only hope for your loved one. Insurance will cover the procedure, but you will have to pay for the BRAIN.”

The family members sat silently as they absorbed the news. After a time, someone asked, “How much will a brain cost?”

The doctor quickly responded, “Rs 20 lac for a male brain, Rs 5 lac for a female brain.”

The moment turned awkward. Some of the men had to ‘try’ to not smile, avoiding eye contact with the women.

A man unable to control his curiosity, finally blurted out the question everyone wanted to ask, “Why is the male brain so much more than a female brain?”

Is Day Trading a Good Idea?

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: The first print of my book – The Sketchbook of Wisdom – got sold out in a matter of 3 months. Now, the second print is reaching me soon. Click here to reserve your copy. I will start shipping next week. Send me an email at vishal@safalniveshak.com if you wish to place bulk orders.

* * *
One of the questions I get a lot, and especially in times like these, is, “How do I learn day trading in stocks?”

I ask, “Why do you want to day trade?”

The answer often is, “To make money, obviously.”

I ask, “Why do you think you can make money day trading?”

There is generally a pause, and then this reply, “I see so many people making money day trading.”

Well, the answer to the question “Can I make money day trading?” is “Of course, you can.*”

But like you read those product advertisements with an asterisk and a small text saying “* Conditions apply,” this also applies to day trading in stocks.

My Talk on Long Term Investing in the Age of Short Attention Spans

I recently spoke at a webinar organized by MoneyWiseSmart on the subject of long-term investing in the age of short attention spans.

Click here to watch the video of my talk, or watch below.

Thank you for your time!
* * *
Buy The Sketchbook of Wisdom: The first print of my new book – The Sketchbook of Wisdom – is almost 80% over, and has already been bought across 30+ countries within 2 months of its launch. Click here to get your copy today. Send me an email at vishal@safalniveshak.com if you wish to place bulk orders.

Beware the Boredom of Bull Market

The Sketchbook of Wisdom – Pre-Order Ends on 15th January: My new book – The Sketchbook of Wisdom: A Hand-Crafted Manual on the Pursuit of Wealth and Good Life – is almost here (shipping starts in mid-February). Pre-order by 15th January to reserve your copy. Click here to pre-order now.

* * *
I received an email recently where one reader asked – “What you say about long-term investing in the stock market is all good. But doesn’t it get boring after a time? I mean, first the process of reading annual reports to find good businesses, and then if you find some, holding on to them for the long run doing nothing. How does one maintain interest in this thing? How does one make this process and journey exciting?”

I thought these were good questions. In fact, questions like these used to bother me when I started out on my journey of reading annual reports, analyzing financial statements, and practicing long term investing more than a decade back.

In fact, I was talking to an investor friend recently, who confessed of boredom because he was not able to find stocks worth buying in this rising market. “Even if you are a long-term investor, what do you do but feel bored when you don’t find anything worth buying because everything seems to be so inflated?” he questioned.

“I agree,” I said.

Lost Money on Stocks? Have No Shame

Adolf Merckle was a leading German entrepreneur who, in the early 1970s, founded Germany’s first generic drug manufacturer, Ratiopharm. For several decades he also held large parts of cement company HeidelbergCement as well as vehicle manufacturer Kässbohrer.

In 2007, he was worth US$ 12.8 billion, and among the five richest people in Germany.

However, near the end of 2008, Merckle’s investment company VEM faced a liquidity shortage, and he also faced huge losses on speculation in Volkswagen shares, which he bet would fall but instead surged. It is believed that he lost as much as €500 million on this speculative bet. His trouble was made worse by the spreading financial crunch, which hit his corporate empire hard.

Crushed by watching his life’s work slip through his fingers, on 5th January 2009, Merckle walked out into the bitter cold night and threw himself under a speeding train.
“An industrialist losing a fortune on the stock market has different motives for killing himself than a father with six children who loses his job,” said Detlev Liepmann, professor of economic psychology at Berlin’s Free University. He added, “Merckle’s livelihood was certainly not threatened by his risky investments but he was threatened by shame, a loss of face in society, and a loss of honor.”

A man who spent a life working hard to do good, built a billion-dollar wealth, then lost a part of it due to wrong bets and collapse of world markets, died of guilt and shame seemingly because he equated his financial failure with failure in life.

Though at his memorial service, Gerhard Maier, a retired bishop, said, “What brought a man of great will who felt responsible to God to the point where he took his own life is something that, deep down, we humans will never comprehend.”

There is Merckle in All of Us
Well, the reason I brought in Merckle’s tragic story today is because there is a part of Merckle in all of us that causes us to feel shame for our financial mistakes – even small – that often leads us to bigger mistakes. Of course, most people in the same spot as Merckle would not think of killing themselves no matter what happens.

People talk about regret aversion and how we make decisions to avoid regretting an alternative decision in the future. But I would rather call it ‘shame aversion,’ because most of the time most if you see guilt or shame as a more powerful emotion than plain regret.

So, we feel guilty for not investing in rising stocks when we see our friends making money on them. We feel guilty of not having invested in stocks when the prices were down, and we knew (now, in hindsight) that we should have sold our houses then to invest.

We feel bad accepting we made a mistake that causes us to hold on to our losing stocks (bad businesses) because the shame of such acceptance would be too heavy to bear on our already frail hearts. So, not only would people bet heavily on hot stocks in frothy markets, but they would also double-down when these stocks fall to avoid the shame of turning their paper losses into real ones.

Losing Money on Stocks is NOT a Shame
My dear friend, there is no shame in losing money on a stock or any investment. Everyone loses at some point in time, and there is not a single investor who has never made a mistake.

Of course, that does not mean you bet your house on stocks – even the best ones. Losing ₹ 1 crore on a ₹ 100 crore net worth is not the same as losing ₹ 1 crore on a ₹ 2 crore net worth. So, you should always be worried about losing big money permanently. But that worry should show up in the kind of work you do on your process to pick stocks, not after you have already lost money.

Investing or money are such insignificant parts of this beautiful thing called life that you must not lose sleep over them, forget losing your life.

Markets change, cycles turn, everything passes, and there are numerous opportunities one gets to rise after a fall, clean the dust, give up any guilt or shame of falling, and start walking again.

The noted British writer and speaker Alan Watts said –

Man suffers only because he takes seriously what the Gods made for fun.

Russian philosopher and novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky agreed in a way when he said –

The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month.

Learn from your mistakes, but stop taking them, or yourself, so seriously.

How much I wish Adolf Merckle, and others like him who passed through similar tragedies, understood this.

How much I wish you do.

* * *
That’s about it from me for today.

If you liked this post, please share with others on WhatsApp, Twitter, LinkedIn, or just email them the link to this post.

If you are seeing this newsletter for the first time, you may subscribe here.

Stay safe.

Regards,
Vishal

Regret Missing the Rally in Stocks? Now What?

In March 2020, when stocks all around were sinking, I wrote a post about how I was investing my money.

In that post, I mentioned about a stock I had bought in mid-February 2020 that was down 60% from my original purchase price in just a month. My total investment in the stock was then around 3% of my stock portfolio, and it was down 55% from the total invested amount.

Here is a quick update on that. That stock is now 3.5% of my portfolio and is down just around 7% from the total invested amount. The stock has almost doubled from its March lows when I wrote that post.

A few other stocks I had purchased in March and April 2020 are up anywhere between 40% and 120%.

Anatomy of A Stock Market Loss

“Somewhere beyond right and wrong, there is a garden. I will meet you there.” ~ Rumi

If you invest in stocks, at some point, you are going to lose money. Try as much as you can, but there is no way around it.

Sometimes, a stock market loss is immediate and clear. A stock you bought at a higher price has plummeted. Like this one…

In other cases, your losses are not as obvious because they are more subtle. Like for investors in this stock, who suffered a time correction by holding on for five years yet seeing slightly negative returns…

Each of these types of losses can be painful, and especially for the fact that we assign negative connotations to the very word “loss.”

A “loss” in the stock market is essentially considered as a synonym to “failure,” and as being “wrong.”