Investing Behaviour

One story from World War II that I found as tragic as it was magnificent was that of Anne Frank.

Frank was born in Frankfurt, Germany but moved to the Netherlands for safety in 1934, five years after she was born. The Frank family hid in their basement with four other Jews when Germany took control of the Netherlands.

Anne then began to write, at age thirteen, in a diary of her life, feelings and the outside world. She wrote in the diary every day for two years until their hiding place was found and she was forced into a concentration camp where she died with her sister due to a sickness. She was just fifteen when she died.

Although Anne wasn’t only a tragic girl in this war, her diary that is available to read as The Diary of a Young Girl displays the strength of her character. The diary portrays her as a brave and hopeful girl, character traits that are hard to manage in the kind of hardship that she was a part of.

…because most of us in the stock market, most of the time, do not do investing, which is…

• Thinking how markets work,
• Understanding how other investors behave and why not to behave like most of them,
• Studying businesses,
• Sticking only with what is simple and what we understand,
• Buying stocks at appropriate valuations,
• Owning those businesses knowing they are ‘businesses’ and not just symbols on your screen, and
• Being patient with those businesses and holding on till they remain good businesses.

Instead, we are busy…

• Envying (others making money fast or losing money slow),
• Cloning (others’ stock ideas mindlessly),
• Predicting (future of markets, stock prices, and economy),
• Fearing (missing out on future gains),
• Regretting (past mistakes),
• Avoiding (accepting current mistakes),
• Denying (reality, especially when it’s harsh), and
• Indulging (in useless information and noise)

And if that’s not all, these often lead us to –

• Trading (frequently, which adds to our costs),
• Averaging down (on bad businesses),
• Boasting (about our lucky short-term gains), and sometimes
• Trolling (other investors on social media, who have not performed as well as us in the recent past).

With such a busy schedule, where is the time to practice investing?

Countless wise people have advised us for centuries that to become good at anything, we do not need to always add more things but give up on some of them.

However, when it comes to investing, giving up on everything mentioned above is not as easy as it sounds. All these (mis)attributes and (mis)behaviours make us human (except trolling others), and thus there is no point trying hard to eliminate all of them from our lives at one go.

But if we work towards minimizing these – some starting today, and others over a period of time – we may end up with an outcome better than we had ever imagined.

I would leave you with a couple of quotes, which signify how what we think and do now, help us create our destinies –

Watch your thoughts; they become words.
Watch your words; they become actions.
Watch your actions; they become habits.
Watch your habits; they become character.
Watch your character; for it becomes your destiny.

– Lao Tzu

You are what your deep, driving desire is.
As your desire is, so is your will.
As your will is, so is your deed.
As your deed, is so is your destiny.

– Brihadaranyaka Upanishad

For good or bad, investing does not follow any other path.

Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital wrote this in one of his 2006 memos to shareholders titled ‘Risk‘ –

In the investing world, one can live for years off one great coup or one extreme but eventually accurate forecast. But what’s proved by one success? When markets are booming, the best results often go to those who take the most risk. Were they smart to anticipate good times and bulk up on beta, or just congenitally aggressive types who were bailed out by events? Most simply put, how often in our business are people right for the wrong reason?

These are the people Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “lucky idiots,” and in the short run it’s certainly hard to tell them from skilled investors.

Warren Buffett, in his brilliant 1984 article titled The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, describes a contest in which each of the 225 million Americans starts with US$ 1 and flips a coin once a day. The people who get it right on day one collect a dollar from those who were wrong and go on to flip again on day two, and so forth. Ten days later, 220,000 people have called it right ten times in a row and won US$ 1,000.

Buffett writes –

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

After another ten days, there are 215 ‘survivors’ who have been right 20 times in a row and have each won US$ 1 million. By this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million.

…this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they’ll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?”

By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same — 215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

This is a very important story and the reason I am reminding you of this today is because there are now more than 215 egotistical orangutans that are talking about how they have turned small amounts of money into millions investing in stocks and elsewhere and how you can do that easily too.

Worse, each of these 215 have a following of more than 215,000, so you can understand the multiplier effect of the ‘how to get rich easily from stocks’ theory.

Even worse, they are not chest-thumping hanging on trees of some far off jungle, but in a computer or mobile screen right in front of you, on Twitter, YouTube, and everywhere.

Buffett said –

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

Sir John Templeton said –

The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.

This time is not any different, and I wish you realize this now and not when the tide goes out.

There will be a lot of naked swimmers then. I wish you are not one of them.

Watch out.

That’s about it from me for today.

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Stay safe.

Regards, Vishal

I received an email recently where one reader asked – “What you say about long-term investing in the stock market is all good. But doesn’t it get boring after a time? I mean, first the process of reading annual reports to find good businesses, and then if you find some, holding on to them for the long run doing nothing. How does one maintain interest in this thing? How does one make this process and journey exciting?”

I thought these were good questions. In fact, questions like these used to bother me when I started out on my journey of reading annual reports, analyzing financial statements, and practicing long term investing more than a decade back.

In fact, I was talking to an investor friend recently, who confessed of boredom because he was not able to find stocks worth buying in this rising market. “Even if you are a long-term investor, what do you do but feel bored when you don’t find anything worth buying because everything seems to be so inflated?” he questioned.

“I agree,” I said.

Not losing money is a critical part of the stock investing process. Successful investors say it in different ways, but the point is always the same.

Warren Buffett has often said – “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”

But he has also said – “If you don’t make mistakes, you can’t make decisions.”

You see, the problem is not in making mistakes. The problem is in not knowing when you have made a mistake and thus not learning from it.

Unfortunately, openness to making mistakes and recognizing them is beyond most of us. Why is that?

Two reasons. The first, our society’s phobia for making mistakes, something that begins at school, where we learn to learn what we are taught rather than to resolve problems. We are fed with facts, and those who make the fewest mistakes are considered to be the smarter ones. So we learn that it is embarrassing to not know and to make mistakes. We feel bad when we find out we have made a mistake or do not know something.

Blaming the system is soothing because it lets you off the hook. But when the system is broken, we wonder why you were relying in the system in the first place.

~ Seth Godin

This story dates to September 2008. I remember this clearly because it happened on the day Lehman went bust.

The event is more vivid for me because, when the news broke out, I was less than a mile away from Lehman’s headquarters, with a school friend.

My friend, who was working in the tech division of another investment bank in the city, met me to discuss his India investments. His portfolio had already taken a beating in the financial crisis that had started at the beginning of 2008.

* * *

One of the first lessons I learned from my yoga teacher was that “yoga is not about rapid movements but long pauses. Slow down, calm down, don’t hurry, and trust the process.”

The thing about yoga — or any exercise — is that there isn’t a comfort zone. But if you have a sound process, and practice it diligently, over time it starts to work for you.

The act of investing your money, as I realize, isn’t much different from practicing yoga. A superior process and greatness often go hand in hand in yoga, and also in investing. For serious investors, thus, it’s wise to learn to trust the process that generates winning investment results.

I came across one such time-tested process framework while reading Michael Mauboussin’s “Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors.” Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and author of some amazing books like The Success Equation and More Than You Know. He is a highly successful value investor, and thus the process he has laid out in his note is a great help for any serious investor seeking a winning investment process.

Here are my reviews of the ten attributes Mauboussin has laid out in his note.

* * *

Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist who made foundational contributions to understanding atomic structure and quantum theory, for which he received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1922, proposed once that the goal of science is not universal truth.

It was mid-1974.

Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx had a problem at hand. FedEx was a young company, just three years old, and primarily due to rising fuel costs, found itself millions of dollars in debt and on the brink of bankruptcy.

As per demands from oil companies that provided fuel to run FedEx’s planes, every Monday, the latter was required to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. It was one of those Fridays and FedEx had just about $5,000 in its bank account, while it needed $24,000 for the jet fuel payment for the coming week.