Wit. Wisdom. Value Investing.
A few days back, I had posted a video on how to analyze the balance sheet on the Equities and Liabilities side.
In continuation of that series, here are two videos on how to analyze the Assets side of the balance sheet.
Given my habit of speaking too much when no one is listening :-), I have divided the explanation in two parts.
[Read more…] about How to Master Analyzing the Balance Sheet – Part 2
One of the questions I am asked often via emails or before my Workshops is – “How to identify the right stocks for investment?”
I have explained the thought process in my value investing course, through my posts, and also do so in the Workshop.
The core steps are well-known – look for simple businesses that fall under your circle of competence and avoid everything else, read their financial statements to assess their strength and also vis-a-vis their competitors, and then value them using a few intrinsic value methods.
This process covers a large part of the “action” as far as identifying sound investment opportunities is concerned.
But there is a step prior to this process as well – a step where you create the right mental framework required to identify the right investment opportunities.
[Read more…] about Howard Marks on How to Identify Investment Opportunities
This post is authored by Puneet Khurana, a Safal Niveshak tribesman.
“Authority, authority!” they shout
Whose minds, not large enough to hold a doubt,
Some chance opinion ever entertain,
By dogma billeted upon their brain.
~ Ambroce Bierce
There is one thing we all have been taught from very beginning and that is to accept what our elders tell us; to accept their authority.
To do otherwise was considered to be an act of indiscipline and something that needs to be corrected.
The reason is well understood. At a young age, when our minds are not fully developed and we are not well-informed, relying on elderly wisdom served us extremely well.
[Read more…] about Wit, Wisdom, Charlie: Elementary Worldly Wisdom from Charlie Munger (Issue #8)
Here is what Mr. LS Chauhan, a tribesman, wrote as a comment on my latest post on Opto Circuits – “Could you please consider taking OCIL balance sheet as an illustration while you post your next lesson on ‘How to read a balance sheet’.”
So here is a video I have prepared to help you understand the Balance Sheet, and through the example of OCIL’s balance sheet. 🙂
Since explaining how to analyze a complete balance sheet would have taken a lot of time, in this video I explain how to look at the “Equity & Liabilities” side of a balance sheet. I will take up the rest of the analysis – of the Assets side – in a subsequent video.
Anyways, as they say, to know how good a job a manager did, you have to have a good idea how much risk he took.
In the same way, to know how good a business a company is doing, you have to have a good idea how much risk it carries on its balance sheet.
The “Equity & Liabilities” side tells you exactly that.
[Read more…] about How to Master Analyzing the Balance Sheet – Part 1
I have been sharing my thoughts via Safal Niveshak for almost 1.5 years now.
I have strived to cover a very diverse set of ideas around investing, personal finance, and experiments I am conducting in my own life.
Whenever I sit down to write, I usually choose a topic based on…
So whatever I write on Safal Niveshak is for you. And I want it to be useful to you.
Now here’s what I’m asking.
Post topics of interest to you in the Comments section below – topics related to investing, stock market, and financial life…which you want me to cover on Safal Niveshak.
Based on the requests I receive, I’ll line up the topics I think are particularly interesting and important and will benefit a wide audience, and write on them over the next few days and weeks.
I look forward to hear from you.
Note: I have opened registrations for Safal Niveshak’s Art of Investing Workshop in Mumbai and New Delhi. Click here to register to attend the Workshop in any of these cities. Few seats remain, so please hurry!
I have written three posts on Opto Circuits (OCIL) so far – two in June 2012, followed by one in August.
The reason for the first post was requests from a lot of readers who wanted me to research the company.
The second post was my research report on OCIL.
The reason for the third post was requests from a lot of readers who were worried after seeing a 10% fall in the stock from the time I wrote my research on the company.
Now, I’m writing a fourth post on the OCIL…after requests from a lot of readers who want my view on the stock after it has fallen 52% since my second post and 46% since the third one.
“Too much of the past Vishal,” you might be thinking. “Tell me straight what I must do with Opto Circuits. I’m already sitting on a big loss!”
We are in the midst of the “earnings season” and the barrage of company press releases, conference calls, and analyst meets.
Stock market analysts all over the country currently have their noses buried in quarterly statements, hoping to get a sense of company-specific and industry trends.
If their habit hasn’t changed since I left the industry two years back, most of them will be taking up management teams’ time by questions that serve no other purpose than to help them (the analysts) forecast the next quarter’s earnings per share…or EPS.
Old habit die hard. So even I’m trying to get back my focus on my old friend EPS, that continues to act oddly amidst slowdown across industries.
I, along with my daughter Kavya, attended a workshop on kitchen farming last Sunday.
The idea of the Workshop was to teach simple ways to grow your own vegetables and fruits in your backyard, terrace, or balcony…and in a completely organic, non-toxic way.
The Workshop was organized by Green Souls, a volunteer driven setup that grows organic vegetables and fruits for children suffering from cancer.
This was my first brush with soil after almost 25 years. The last time I had patiently felt the earth beneath my feet was when I was almost Kavya’s age.
So it felt great going back to the roots, literally.
Anyways, the reason I am sharing this with you is because while learning to grow my own food, I realized there are several lessons that an investor can learn from farming.
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (HML) has been one of the biggest wealth creators in the Indian stock market history.
Over the last 10 years, the stock has returned around 24% per year, which is an amazing long term average.
On the business front, the company has been at the forefront of the 2-wheeler revolution in the country. Since 2001, it has been the largest 2-wheeler manufacturer in the world.
As far as its financial performance is concerned, its sales and profits have grown at average annual rates of 18% each over the past 10 years.
This growth has been without any damage to the balance sheet. Debt remains minimal, its working capital cycle is small, and cash generation has been tremendous.
In fact, the company has not seen a single year with negative free cash flow over the past 15 years, which in itself is commendable.
So the past ten years, as a whole, look beautiful.
Now, as an investor, it is easy for me to draw patterns from the past – especially if the past has been a great one – and expect the future to be the same.
This pattern-forming skill gets enhanced when you work too much on the excel sheet, which gives you the flexibility to “tweak” future growth rates any way you want!
Anyways, here is a view an analyst friend of mine recently shared with me about HML – “A company that has grown its sales and profits at 18% per year across market cycles is bound to do good in the future. If not 18%, even if it achieves 15% growth, I can earn a handsome return on my investment.
“You see the balance sheet is clean,” he continue, “…the cash flows are solid, the brand is well-known, and now the valuations are also decent.”
HML’s P/E, by the way is at around 16.4 times its trailing 12 months earnings, which is almost near its average P/E for the past three years.
As compared to this, its closest competitor Bajaj Auto is trading at almost 20x P/E, or at a 22% premium to the former’s valuation.
So, on a relative basis, HML looks much cheaper than Bajaj Auto.
“What is more, HML is near its 52-week low price,” my friend told me. “I have thus bought the stock and expect to make a lot of money from it!”
Now, I am not a sadist. But my fried may start hating me when he reads what follows next.
Is Hero MotoCorp a value trap?
If you have been reading me for some months now, the right side of your brain tells you – “Oh, you know the crap Vishal writes when he analyses companies! You’re already reeling in deep losses from his ‘recommendation’ on Opto Circuits. And now, he says that a great stock like HML can be a value crap…oh sorry, value trap!”
But then, the left side of your brain tells you – “What’s wrong in knowing Vishal’s reasoning for the same? He’s always told you to do your own research before buying stocks because it’s your responsibility as an investor. So, at least listen to him and then do what you think is fine.”
Now I can see you holding both your brains together, and then reading out the three reasons I, Vishal Khandelwal, think HML can be a value trap.
Here I go…
1. Exit of Honda, and especially when it was driving all innovations at HML, will continue to be painful for the latter.
Just look at the history of TVS Motor. After the exit of Suzuki from a joint venture, the company took many years to find its bearings.
I think it will be worse for HML as Honda has already become a strong name in the motorcycle market in India, and is leaving no stones unturned to shake up the hegemony of HML.
HML is also facing immense competition from Bajaj Auto, which has emerged as a more profitable 2-wheeler company, and thus commands a greater pricing power than the former.
2. HML is not defending its leadership. As Mr. Chetan Parikh highlighted in the second part of his interview, the company has not launched any marquee models for long. Splendour was HML’s trump card when I was in college, and it’s still the trump card.
Bajaj was guilty of doing this – not defending its leadership – with its Chetak model years ago, and paid a heavy price of it. In a market that is even more competitive and fast evolving, HML’s slow steps can cost it heavy.
What is more, HML, with a 32% share ,does not have a market leadership in the most vibrant segment of the Indian motorcycle market – the 125-150cc range. In fact, Bajaj Auto and Honda are tightening the noose here.
In the premium range (bikes more powerful than 250cc), Hero is a very small player anyways.
The company is now also getting squeezed in its dominant business of selling entry-level bikes (75-110cc), where it has a near-70% (and declining) market share.
Sales here are getting impacted for two reasons:
3. HML is losing its moat. After the exit of Honda in FY11, HML has raised its spending on advertising. In other words, it is resorting to spending more and more money to protect its moat, which is weakening.
Led by higher advertising costs, the company’s profitability is on a consistent decline. This – declining margins – is one of the key factors to identify a potential value trap.
With competition intensifying, rising advertisement spends, and no major development on new launches, margins may remain under pressure. A lower margin will also reduce the company’s pricing power.
So, what to do with HML?
Considering the above factors, I believe HML’s valuations at 16.4x training 12-months earnings, which seem cheap and especially in comparison to Bajaj Auto’s valuations, are not so cheap for the kind of prospects I see for the company over the next five years (at least).
Also, my intrinsic value calculations (you can see my last StockTalk report for greater discussion on the methods I use) suggest that the intrinsic value for HML (after adjusting for 25% margin of safety) is around Rs 1,350. This is around 25% lower than the stock’s current price, which suggests that I value at the current price anyways.
As far as HML’s business is concerned, any reduction in interest rates and an improvement in consumer sentiment (especially in the rural areas where HML’s entry-level bikes are in greater demand than in urban areas) can help HML return to a high growth part in the future, competition poses a huge risk for the company.
I see intensifying competition hurting HML on two major fronts:
The company will also be spending a large part of its cash flows towards R&D (for most Indian companies, R&D is a sophisticated term for T&A, or trial & error) in a bid to come out with marquee models, so dividend may no more be a lure to buy the stock.
In all, I think HML has the potential to become a value trap unless it gets its act together. At least that is what the direction of its business is hinting at.
But please don’t believe me!
With the growing influence of stock analyst recommendations and the proliferation of financial bloggers, there is good reason to question their usefulness.
Here are two reasons you must doubt my above analysis of HML:
Whatsay?
I recently had the privilege of meeting one of the highly regarded value investors in India, Mr. Chetan Parikh in his office in Mumbai.
Here is the first part of his interview.
In this second part, Mr. Parikh enlightens us on the mental models and checklist he uses to short-list companies for investment.
Over to Mr. Parikh.
—————-Art of Investing Workshop 2013————-
The 2013 journey of Safal Niveshak’s Art of Investing Workshop has begun. You can register to attend the Workshop in Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, or Hyderabad. Seats are limited, so please hurry!
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Safal Niveshak: Please explain the mental models you use to short-list companies for further research and to make your investment decisions. Please talk about some multidisciplinary models that have worked well for you in investing and life in general.
Mr. Parikh: It is paradoxical that to make sense of messy reality one has to deal with the highly abstract.
Any comprehension of any facet of the world, be it physical, natural or sociological needs insights (I hesitate to use the word theories) or more generically, mental models.
These mental models reduce the overwhelming complexity of reality to its crucial aspects which helps to make sense, like the equivalent of having specifications in engineering.
Use mental models to deal with complexity
Mental models are a powerful way of dealing with complexity.
It was Albert Einstein who stated…
The … goal of all theory is to make the …. basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of ……..experience.
Furthermore, reality is multi-faceted (remember the blind men and the elephant) which also means understanding the interactions between these mental models as applied to the situation or problem being studied. This diagnosis should lead to more effective action.
There must be many ways on how one can use mental models, but I prefer to make my approximations of reality using simple diagrams drawn from systems theory as they better map the interactions and connections between the disparate mental models that find their place in those diagrams.
Whilst calculus teaches how to differentiate and integrate mathematically, I think that the mental models approximations help to differentiate and integrate conceptually.
Interactions can change depending on situation being studied. Take salt, for instance. Sodium and chlorine have a single type of interaction in all environments, but not hydrocarbons comprising of hydrogen and carbon.
For as the Sufi story goes: “You think that because you understand “one” that you can therefore understand “two” because one and one make two. But you forget that you must also understand “and”.”
It is when penciling in feedback loops that a lot of “why” and “what if” questions arise and the answers can come only through understanding, as distinct from information which is copiously available today and usually answers the “what” question and knowledge which answers the “how” question.
Of course, one needs the “whats”, “hows”, “whys”, and “what ifs” to answer the overarchingly practical “What the hell is going on here?” question.
An investor should be looking at possibilities in the future and the behavioral possibilities of any system or situation being studied depend on how structures and conditions change.
In many cases this makes prediction impossible and leaves a reasonably small subset of companies where the range of possibilities is not wide.
Alternatively, the price should have discounted the worst possibility. Given that understanding is not easy, given that information that does not fit our mental models is often discarded, we are often blundering “satisficers” according to Nobel Laureate Herb Simon.
“Bounded rationality” and behavioral biases often makes investors and managers view things in a manner that may not lead to desirable outcomes.
I have through my experience also learnt that there is a difference between my approximations of reality and reality itself. It has usually been based on…
In short, faulty understanding of reality itself. For as G. K. Chesterton, the famous author, wrote…
The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is.
The only antidote I believe, to this is to remain a learner and to become what psychologist Don Michael calls “error-embracing”.
An experiment in investing
Here is a thought experiment on investing (adapted from a wonderful book, “Good Strategy Bad Strategy” by Richard Rumelt).
Imagine that you have found Aesop’s goose and it is not going to die, not going to mate, not going to eat or fall sick and will keep laying golden eggs every year worth Rs 1 crore.
There are no taxes and interest rates are to remain constant at 10 percent. You decide to encash your good fortune and sell the goose for Rs 10 crore to a gold miner.
Whilst the goose does have a competitive advantage (zero cost of production and a unique asset) in the gold mining business, the new owner will not become richer with the purchase. Unless a way is found to get the goose to lay more than Rs 1 crore worth of golden eggs every year.
Competitive advantage (or an economic moat) by itself does not lead to wealth creation. Only a growing competitive advantage (deepening and widening the economic moat) does.
Of course, if you were fearful and the buyer was greedy, you could have sold the goose for less than its economic worth and value would have been created on purchase, but let’s not assume irrationality.
Good investing comes from good business analysis more than good financial analysis.
Mental models that help to understand business strategies that lead to growing competitive advantage should be useful to investors.
Here are some from biology although there are many from other disciplines which I’m not listing.
a) Evolution as an algorithm: Innovation, formula that through trial and error creates new designs; Competition + variation + replication = natural selection + evolution; “Differentiate, select and amplify” resulting in novelty, knowledge and growth; Economic evolution dependent on physical and social (method of organization) technologies; In evolutionary systems, statsis will result in extinction; Economic equivalent of mutation and sexual recombination are business plans based on risk, relatedness and time horizon; Swarm intelligence.
b) Punctuated equilibrium: Removal of “keystone” species from ecosystems; Disruptive technologies, technology S-curves; Extrapolationism is not a good theory.
c) Co-evolution: Arms Race (Red Queen races) and thus the difficulty of maintaining sustainable competitive advantage; Organizational resources and business plans; Symbiosis and “switching costs”; Eras and stages of co-evolution; “All forms of life make one grand system” -Charles Darwin
d) Fitness: Designs are fit if they survive and replicate under the constraints of environment; Fisher’s fundamental theorem – average fitness of a population grows from generation to generation; The experience curve.
e) Adaptation: Evolution produces designs that reflect new selection pressures; Speciation; Usually resisted due to delusional optimism, psychological denial and loss aversion; Organizational structure – hierarchies, Skunk Works; Cultural norms and inertia.
f) Industry clockspeed: Fast clockspeed species have extremely short life-cycles; Sustainable advantage is a slow-clockspeed concept; Fast – clockspeed industries tend to generate hedging strategies.
g) Genes: Business genes or practices that perform the same role as genes in biology; Information stored in “organizational memory” and passed on between individuals and firms; Relationship between genes and organisms typically complex and indirect; Genetic engineering has begun the process of short cutting the process of species evolution, proactive chain (organizations, technologies, capabilities) will shortcut industry evolution; Business double helix and cycles between vertically integrated industries and horizontally disintegrated industries.
Let me elaborate. Differentiation is vital to evolution. As Robert Goizueta, the late CEO of Coca-Cola said: “In real estate it’s location, location, location. In business it’s differentiate, differentiate, differentiate.”
There is an absolutely amazing presentation by Mr. Rajiv Bajaj of Bajaj Auto which is one of the clearest expositions of good business strategy that I’ve come across.
I’m grateful to Mr. Darshan Engineer and Mr. Dhaval Shah of Siddhesh Capital Market Services Pvt. Ltd. for drawing my attention to this presentation and link.
There are some mental models from biology that one can apply to this presentation although there are many from other disciplines too.
Here are some of them from the presentation. I’ll like to thank my colleague, Mr. Anish Jobalia, for making the notes.
Scooter strategy (Speciation)
‘Speciation’ is the evolutionary process by which new biological species arise. ~ Wikipedia
Three wheeler and RE 60 strategy (Speciation)
ASEAN market strategy (Co-evolution)
KTM Strategy (Co–evolution)
Hero as a competitor (Punctuated Equilibrium?)
Royal Enfield – Siddharth Lal (Fitness)
Mr. Charlie Munger, the father of the “mental models” approach to thinking, once said: “Those who will not face improvements because they are changes, will face changes that are not improvements.” This is what evolution is about.
Safal Niveshak: How do you typically find ideas and what is your selection process before an idea gets added to your portfolio? What types of questions are on your investing check list?
Mr. Parikh: The first part of the question has been answered in my previous interview) and on Jeetay’s website.
We have different checklists depending on whether we are evaluating a potential purchase or whether we are reviewing an existing holding.
We would tend to emphasise business strategy more for a company with “moats” and catalysts and valuations more for the Grahamian sort of bets.
Broadly the sort of questions would test our understanding about…
Whilst evaluating the opportunities, we are looking for downsides.
Finally, if we think we have understood the business, we try to figure out the price we are willing to pay.