Archives for June 2025

Lose First, Lose Forever: The Trap Most Investors Don’t See

Admission Open for My Value Investing Workshops (Offline): I’m excited to announce admissions to my upcoming in-person value investing workshops in the following cities:

Bengaluru – Sunday, 13th July 2025
Hyderabad – Sunday, 27th July 2025
Mumbai – Sunday, 10th August 2025

Click here to know more and book your seat.

Seats are limited in each city. The first 20 participants can claim an early bird discount.

While flipping through a few of my old notes, I stumbled upon a thought from Nassim Taleb that struck me again with its wisdom. He was explaining the concept of path dependence, which is a phenomenon where outcomes are not just a function of present conditions, but heavily shaped by the sequence of events that preceded them.

Taleb used a metaphor to explain this idea:

Ironing your shirts then putting them in the washing machine produces a different outcome from washing your shirts first, then ironing them. The reader can either trust me on this, or try the experiment with both sequences on the next Sunday afternoon.

He then applied that same thought to money:

Assume that your capital is around one million dollars and you are involved in speculation. Making a million dollars first, then losing it, is markedly different from losing a million dollars first, then making it.

In the first path (make, then lose), you’re at least alive to fight another day. You may end up with less, but you’ve tasted survival. In the second path (lose, then make), you may never even get to the “make” part. Because losing early can leave you bankrupt, broken, demoralized, and most importantly, unable to stay in the game.

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Letter to A Young Investor #12: The Powerful Thinking Skill Nobody Ever Taught You

Two Books. One Purpose. A Better Life.

“Discover the extraordinary within.”

—Manish Chokhani, Director, Enam Holdings

“This is a masterpiece.”

—Morgan Housel, Author, Psychology of Money

Click here to buy Boundless (₹1999)
Click here to buy Sketchbook (₹1999)
Click here to buy the combo (Boundless + Sketchbook) (~~₹3998~~ ₹2999)

I am writing this series of letters on the art of investing, addressed to a young investor, with the aim to provide timeless wisdom and practical advice that helped me when I was starting out. My goal is to help young investors navigate the complexities of the financial world, avoid misinformation, and harness the power of compounding by starting early with the right principles and actions. This series is part of a joint investor education initiative between Safal Niveshak and DSP Mutual Fund.

Dear Young Investor,

I hope this letter finds you well.

So far, in our journey together over the past few months, I’ve shared my thoughts on building the right money habits, learning to deal with fear, avoiding money traps, and a few essential steps to lay the foundation for a successful financial life.

Today, I want to hand you a tool, one that has saved me more times than I can count. It’s called ‘inversion.’ And I believe, with all my heart, that if you really understand and apply this mental model, it will save you from the kinds of investing mistakes that don’t just hurt your portfolio but also bruise your confidence.

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A Business is Not a Math Problem

Two Books. One Purpose. A Better Life.

Imagine the scene from the battlefield of Kurukshetra, where Arjuna stands frozen. He is not fearful, just confused. He looks at the faces on the other side, and sees family, teachers, and cousins. Suddenly, the whole battle doesn’t make sense anymore.

Here’s a warrior, born and trained to fight, and yet, when the moment comes, he lowers his bow.

And what does Krishna do? He doesn’t give him a five-point strategy like you find thrown around on LinkedIn, or even a “battlefield ROI calculator.” He doesn’t even talk about odds or probabilities.

Instead, Krishna tells Arjuna a story. Or rather, he reminds him of his story…about who he is, what his role is, and why he is there. And only once Arjuna understands that does he lift his bow again. Now, none of the facts have changed for Arjuna, but the meaning behind the facts have become clear to him.

I think about that moment a lot, especially when I see how most of us go about investing. We open the annual report, we skip to the numbers, and ask questions like, “What’s the profit growth?” “What’s the ROCE?” “What’s the free cash flow?” And we think, “Yes, this looks investable.”

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