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You are here: Home / Archives for 2022

Archives for 2022

How to Manage Risk of Randomness in Investing

Admission Open: Value Investing Workshop (Online) – October 2022 Cohort

I have opened admission to the October 2022 cohort of my online value investing workshop. The workshop includes 22+ hours of pre-recorded, detailed lectures and Q&A session, plus a 3-hour live Q&A session. 

I am accepting only 50 students in this cohort, and first 25 can claim a special discount. Click here to know more and join the workshop.


A Few Ideas I’m Thinking About

Here are a few ideas I have been thinking about over the last few days.

How to Manage Risk of Randomness in Investing

“All of life is a management of risk, not its elimination,” writes Walter Wriston, former chairman of Citicorp.

Randomness is the fabric that weaves the interaction of everything around us. Since you can’t remove randomness from our affairs, you can’t get rid of the risk also. Peter Bernstein in his book Against the Gods writes –

The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us.

[Read more…] about How to Manage Risk of Randomness in Investing

10 Demons of Investing

I wish all tribe members of Safal Niveshak a very happy Vijayadasami or Dussehra. As per Hindu tradition, today marks the victory of Goddess Durga over the demon Mahishasura. Today also marks the victory of Lord Rama over demon Ravana.

Consider Ravana. He is depicted and described as having ten heads and as a follower of Shiva. He is a great scholar, a capable ruler and a maestro of the veena, but someone who wished to overpower the devas. His ten heads represent his knowledge of the six shastras and the four Vedas.

A negative interpretation of Ravana’s ten heads are the ten emotions or senses in humans –

  1. Kama (Lust),
  2. Krodha (Anger),
  3. Moha (Delusion),
  4. Lobha (Greed),
  5. Mada (Pride),
  6. Matsar (Envy),
  7. Manas (Mind),
  8. Buddhi (Intellect),
  9. Chitta (Will), and
  10. Ahamkara (Ego)

When it comes to investing, some of these emotions stand in between the investor and his long-term success.

As the story of Ravana depicts, the mind tends to shun all things good for our life and seek all things bad for our life. To attain wisdom, one of the most important things we must do is witness the tricks of the mind, and avoid playing the wrong hand as much as possible.

In the illustration that follows, I have tried to depict the ten emotions, or the ten demons, or the ten tricks of our minds, when it comes to investing. Print it, paste it on your work desk, and look at it often.

No investor can claim to master or kill these demons, but a knowledge of these residing within you is, I believe, pretty helpful.

[Read more…] about 10 Demons of Investing

Small Circles: The Theory of Mastery in the Art of Learning and Investing

One of the best books on the art of learning I’ve read is, well, The Art of Learning by Josh Waitzkin.

Josh is a champion in two distinct sports – chess and martial arts. He is an eight-time US national chess champion, thirteen-time Tai Chi Chuan push hands national champion, and two-time Tai Chi Chuan push hands world champion.

In his book, Josh recounts his experiences and shares his insights and approaches on how you can learn and excel in your own life’s passion, using examples from his personal life. Through stories of martial arts wars and tense chess face-offs, Josh reveals the inner workings of his everyday methods, cultivating the most powerful techniques in any field, and mastering the psychology of peak performance.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

 
 
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One of my favourite chapters from Josh’s book is titled – Making Smaller Circles – which stresses on the fact that it’s rarely a mysterious technique that drives us to the top, but rather a profound mastery of what may well be a basic skillset.

Josh starts this chapter with the story of the protagonist in Robert Pirsig’s book Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. This man is Phaedrus, a teacher, who in this particular scene is reaching out to his student who is all jammed up when given the assignment to write a five-hundred-word story about her town, Bozeman.

[Read more…] about Small Circles: The Theory of Mastery in the Art of Learning and Investing

Charlie Munger on Inflation, Envy, and Why Investing is Going to Get Harder

In an interview recently, Charlie Munger warned about the biggest inflationary bubble in world history bursting and shared his thoughts on how it is going to unfold. He elaborated on the difficulty of building wealth for the young generation of today compared to his. Charlie said that we’re flirting with serious trouble and the consequences may be worse than what Paul Volcker was dealing with in the 1970s.

Here is the transcript I have prepared based on what Charlie said.

[Read more…] about Charlie Munger on Inflation, Envy, and Why Investing is Going to Get Harder

How to Judge The Quality of Your Decisions (Hint: It’s Not by Outcomes)

One peculiar but common way our brain works is that we often remember what’s easily available to us, and see what’s easily visible.

So, we conclude that the stock trader who is rich must know what he is doing. In the same way, an investor who uses leverage to increase his bets and in the process magnifies his returns is also considered a role model.

In business, a CEO who borrows a lot of money to make acquisitions and in process turns his business bigger in quick time, also seem to be doing the right things (at least when times are euphoric).

In effect, the general belief is that if the outcome is good, the process and decisions made to arrive at that outcome must have been sound. Right?

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

 
 
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My Conversation with Radhika Gupta (Video and Notes)

I recently interacted with Radhika Gupta, MD & CEO of Edelweiss AMC. The subject was – how to become a successful investor.

Click here to watch the video of the conversation, or watch below.


Here are the key notes from the conversation. These are not as detailed as what I spoke, but contain the important ideas.

[Read more…] about My Conversation with Radhika Gupta (Video and Notes)

The Intangibles of Assessing Management Quality

I read a column on Forbes sometime back that contained a narration from one Nancy Ortberg, who was once a nurse at a hospital emergency room in California.

In her story, Nancy described something astonishing that she witnessed in the emergency room.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

 
 
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[Notes] Howard Marks on the Illusion of Knowledge

Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, recently published his latest memo titled ‘The Illusion of Knowledge’, where he not only questioned the value of macro forecasts, but also explained why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge, and argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable  — and focusing on what they can know.

I have compiled some notes and highlights on the memo.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

 
 
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The ‘Art’ of Investing (Video)

I recently presented to Prime members on the ‘art’ of investing, where I showcased my illustrations to emphasize the idea of long term investing and the key attributes that investors need to work upon to behave well in their pursuit of wealth creation.

Here are just a few topics I covered in my presentation –

  • Is investing as simple or as difficult as it is made out to be
  • Most important attributes we need to become a successful investor
  • How to do well as an investor despite market corrections and recessions
  • Why value investing works
  • Dangers of blind long term investing
  • Is investing a game of luck or skill
  • How to protect ourselves against our own ego
  • Are there any iron clad laws in investing
  • Why stock market is a great humiliator, and how to avoid getting humiliated most of the time
  • Basics of my stock selection framework
  • How to think like a business owner
  • Idea of financial independence
  • Most important advice for wealth creation

Here is the video of my presentation and the Q&A session that followed.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

 
 
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Remembering Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, one of the most successful Indian investors, passed away on 14th August.

I never got an opportunity to meet and interact with him, except for a few moments more than a decade ago. “Respect the market and be prepared for failure” is my faint memory of the advice I heard from him and, in hindsight, it was a great advice that I have never failed to practice.

Mr. Jhunjhunwala is known for his passion for the stock market. But how passionate was he?

[Read more…] about Remembering Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
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