Archives for September 2017

StockScan: Accelya Kale Solutions Ltd.

September 29, 2017 | Reading Time: 2 minutes | 1 Comment |

Here’s my StockScan report on Accelya Kale Solutions Ltd., leading software solutions provider to the airline and travel industry.

Please note that this is NOT an investment advice to buy or sell shares. This is just my analysis of the company’s business and not a stock advice. It’s important that you make your own decision.

StockScan is just my effort to compress my thoughts on a business in a single page, that forces me to focus on the most important things, and exclude the noise that too much information and analysis may bring.

Click here, if you cannot read or download the report above.

Statutory Warning: This is NOT an investment advice to buy or sell shares. Make your own decision. I do not own the stock, but my analysis may be biased, and wrong. I, Vishal Khandelwal, am a registered Research Analyst as per SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 (Registration No. INH000000578).

The Art of Reading Balance Sheet (Video)

September 27, 2017 | Reading Time: 2 minutes | 14 Comments |

For all my warnings against watching business TV over the years (I don’t want to get started on the reasons again), I was on at ET Now yesterday to speak about long-term investing (yes, long-term investing…on business TV!). I also talked about one of my favourite subjects i.e., reading annual reports and specifically the Balance Sheet.

Here is the video of the chat (click here if you are not able to watch the video below) –

Combine this with my earlier posts on how to master analyzing the Balance Sheet – Part 1 and Part 2.

In the above chat, I talked about the annual reports of Avenue Supermarts, Symphony, and Info Edge – all of which I have analyzed and written about recently (Disclosure – I don’t own any of these stocks).

On being asked in the interview about my all-time favourite ‘annual reports,’ I mentioned Asian Paints and Titan (Disclosure – I own both these stocks, so big bias here).

Hope you find value in what I spoke, but also understand that my views were always on the annual reports and underlying businesses and never on the respective stocks.

Statutory Warning: This is NOT an investment advice to buy or sell shares. Please make your own decision, as blindly acting on anyone else’s research and opinions can be injurious to your wealth. My analysis may be biased, and wrong. I have been wrong many times in the past. I am a registered Research Analyst as per SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 (Registration No. INH000000578).

StockTalk (September 2017)

September 25, 2017 | Reading Time: 18 minutes | Leave a Comment |

Latticework of Mental Models: Fundamental Attribution Error

September 25, 2017 | Reading Time: 14 minutes | 8 Comments |

The first impression is the last impression. I am sure you’ve heard this advice numerous times especially from the communication skill experts. But the more I studied psychology, stronger became my belief that there’s quite a bit of truth in this saying. However, if you’re into the business of working with people, it’s the first impression you shouldn’t trust.

Had I gone with my first impressions about some of the strangers I met in my life, I wouldn’t have found my best friends. If you look back in your life and trace the history of your relationships with your best buddies, you would tend to agree with me on this. In fact, go ahead and ask your old friends about how they thought of you (in the first meeting) as a prospective candidate for a long-term friendship.

Whenever we meet someone for the first time, we have a natural tendency to attribute his behaviour to his personality. If that stranger’s behaviour is cold and unresponsive, we jump to the conclusion that he is either shy or introvert or perhaps arrogant. Whereas an individual who seems warm and lively makes you believe that the guy is an extrovert.

Sometimes you may be right, but often you are falling for what is known as the Fundamental Attribution Error. This error is the result of people’s tendency to place an overemphasis on internal characteristics (personality) to explain someone else’s behaviour in a given situation rather than considering the external factors guiding that situation.

Imagine It’s September 2007

September 21, 2017 | Reading Time: 10 minutes | 11 Comments |

Imagine it’s September 2007. The world seems safer, for we have not seen much of Donald Trump or Kim Jong Un. We have an opportunity to trademark brands like Uber, WhatsApp, Quora and Instagram as they do not even exist. Twitter and iPhone are less than a year old. Steve Jobs, Robin Williams, and Michael Jackson still walk the planet.

Imagine it’s September 2007. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are still in business. Ramalinga Raju, along with his accountants, is still creating fictitious cash at Satyam. The market caps of Eicher Motors and Page Industries are less than 2% of what they would be ten years later. And those of DLF and Suzlon are 6x and 24x respectively of what they will be when you are ten years older. The BSE-Sensex is just four months away from peaking before crashing by 50%, though it is still 50% of what it will be after ten years.

When I imagine it’s September 2007, I am ten years younger, and stupider. I am busy writing stock recommendation reports for my employer, whom I am going to leave in another three years. The idea of Safal Niveshak does not exist in my, or anyone else’s, mind. Nobody knows me or trolls me (wow!).