Safal Niveshak

Wit. Wisdom. Value Investing.

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How to Judge The Quality of Your Decisions (Hint: It’s Not by Outcomes)

One peculiar but common way our brain works is that we often remember what’s easily available to us, and see what’s easily visible.

So, we conclude that the stock trader who is rich must know what he is doing. In the same way, an investor who uses leverage to increase his bets and in the process magnifies his returns is also considered a role model.

In business, a CEO who borrows a lot of money to make acquisitions and in process turns his business bigger in quick time, also seem to be doing the right things (at least when times are euphoric).

In effect, the general belief is that if the outcome is good, the process and decisions made to arrive at that outcome must have been sound. Right?

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The Intangibles of Assessing Management Quality

I read a column on Forbes sometime back that contained a narration from one Nancy Ortberg, who was once a nurse at a hospital emergency room in California.

In her story, Nancy described something astonishing that she witnessed in the emergency room.

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The ‘Art’ of Investing (Video)

I recently presented to Prime members on the ‘art’ of investing, where I showcased my illustrations to emphasize the idea of long term investing and the key attributes that investors need to work upon to behave well in their pursuit of wealth creation.

Here are just a few topics I covered in my presentation –

  • Is investing as simple or as difficult as it is made out to be
  • Most important attributes we need to become a successful investor
  • How to do well as an investor despite market corrections and recessions
  • Why value investing works
  • Dangers of blind long term investing
  • Is investing a game of luck or skill
  • How to protect ourselves against our own ego
  • Are there any iron clad laws in investing
  • Why stock market is a great humiliator, and how to avoid getting humiliated most of the time
  • Basics of my stock selection framework
  • How to think like a business owner
  • Idea of financial independence
  • Most important advice for wealth creation

Here is the video of my presentation and the Q&A session that followed.

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A Thought Experiment on Indian Two-Wheeler Companies

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A Thought Experiment on Asian Paints

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Think in Market Caps, Not Stock Prices

Consider these stock prices –

  • NTPC – Rs 144 per share
  • Bajaj Auto – Rs 3600 per share

Do these prices tell you something if you were to decide which of these stocks to buy?

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