Investing

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Safal Niveshak Investor Sentiment Survey 2014

The Indian stock market has been on a high since its August 2013 lows. The BSE-Sensex is up almost 37% since then!

Many have missed this rally. Some don’t even know there has been a rally.

Anyways, as stock prices remain on steroids and caution gets thrown to the wind, it seems a good time to measure the sentiment of investors, at least those who are part of the Safal Niveshak tribe.

If you are willing to share what you are thinking as far as the stock market is concerned, I invite you to participate in the first-ever Safal Niveshak Investor Sentiment Survey.

Click here to visit the Survey form, and let me know what you are thinking and how you are acting now as far as your stock investments are concerned.

I will announce the Survey results on 19th May (Monday).

Value Investing Workshop in Mumbai & New Delhi: Very few “Rs 1,000 early-bird discount” seats remain for my Value Investing Workshop in Mumbai (1st June) and New Delhi (8th June). If you want to claim one for you, click here to register now!

How I’m Planning My Life After Retirement

I am not an expert on retirement and planning for life after sixty (if that is what defines the term ‘retirement’).

I am also willing to bet that anyone who has never retired can never be an expert on this subject (you can only be an expert in things you do), however sagely an advice he/she can offer on how to plan a life after retiring from active work.

But in planning and working towards my own retirement, here is one big mistake I see most retirees (and to-be-retirees) make and how it can be a such a dangerous mistake.

I’ve never heard it mentioned by retirement experts. Nor have I read a word about it in retirement books.

Everyone talks about saving money and allocating it well so that you accumulate enough to spend through the 20-30 years of your post-retirement life.

This is a good advice, but one that misses a big point.

Poke the Box: Don’t Pursue Success…Attract It

Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days and weeks…

My 15 rules of sensible stock market investing. Please don’t follow any of my advice you read in this post. This is what I do and follow myself, and it works for me.
Launched a special page on the website – Ask Vishal – where you can seek answers to your investing and related questions. 100+ new members already joined on Day 1, and around 30 questions got asked.
I am hearing a lot of financial experts outlining their strategies for the Indian stock market post the election results on 16th May. Some things are indeed useless!
If money worries keep you awake at night, you must read this.
Opened registrations for my Art of Investing Workshop in Mumbai (1st June) and New Delhi (8th June). If you wish to attend, please register here.

Book Worm
If the thought of losing money in the stock market keeps you awake at nights, here is something very important for you that I read in Peter Lynch’s Beating the Street…

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. This point cannot be overemphasized. Every year finds a spate of books on how to pick stocks or find the winning mutual fund. But all this good information is useless without the willpower.

In dieting and in stocks, it is the gut and not the head that determines the results.

Have an Investing Question? Just Ask Vishal

Ever since I started Safal Niveshak in July 2011, I have received 7,500+ emails from readers asking their doubts and questions mostly related to investing and personal finance.

While I must have responded to 7,000+ of those emails since then, I am guilty of missing out responding to the remaining 500 emails, owing to either lack of time, or procrastination (I hold a PhD in it!).

I thus apologize to readers who have not received replies from me till yet…and if they still subscribe to my emails.

Anyways, to ensure that I do not miss out on replying to so many questions in the future, I have created a special page on Safal Niveshak called “Ask Vishal”.

Ask Vishal will be the centralized location where I invite all your questions henceforth – questions related to the following subjects –

General Investing
Value Investing (except stock tips or stock-specific questions)
Basic Personal Finance
Blogging
Reading

Having all the questions and answers on this one platform will also help people with similar questions get their answers without having to ask them again.

Anyways, I also invite members of the tribe to help me answer questions that are received on this platform, so that we all get to share our knowledge and make this a mutually beneficial forum (plus I get to cut down my burden of replying to all questions). 🙂

All you need to get started on Ask Vishal is register here for free, and then log in with your credentials.

Remember, whenever you have an investing question, all you have to do is ask.

Value Investing Workshop in Mumbai & New Delhi: Seats are filling up fast for my Value Investing Workshops in Mumbai (1st June) and New Delhi (8th June). Click here if you wish to attend, and claim an early-bird discount!

15 Quick Rules of Stock Market Investing

Despite all the fun stock prices seem to be having these days, there is no doubt we are passing through one of most uncertain times ever to invest.

I do think the uncertainty is going to rise even further so I wanted to put this note together.

Please don’t follow any of my advice you read below. This is what I do and follow myself, and it works for me.

1. Expect, Don’t Fear Corrections
A stock market correction is always around the corner. But no one can predict when it will strike and how much it will hurt. So don’t sit on the sidelines expecting a correction. But always be prepared for one at all times.

“Stock Market Strategy for 16th May” and Other Useless Financial Advice

“We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.” ~ Warren Buffett in his 1992 Letter

Over the past few years of studying investors and their behaviour, there is one clear trend I see all around – the amount of money people pay every year to financial advisors, forecasters, stock recommendation providers, and investment gurus claiming to have some insight into the future, has been on a rise.

Apart from costs involved in buying and selling stocks, this is one big expense item that people don’t account for while calculating their investment returns.

Interestingly, people seek financial forecasters in a desperate attempt to avoid confronting the black hole of an unknowable and uncertain future.

They want to believe these “experts” have enough foresight about financial events to make a meaningful difference. Unfortunately they don’t!

I learned this painful lesson about financial market forecasting the hard way – by getting involved in it first-hand only to realize that it doesn’t work.

30 Most Dangerous Myths about Money & Investing

Dangerous Myths There is an awful lot of bad advice out there when it comes to managing your money or investing in stock markets.

Like rumours, these myths get told and retold as if they were true. They spread like wildfire even though they are flat out wrong.

Some of these myths are just plain dumb, some are deceptive…but almost all are downright dangerous!

It’s time you know what these dangerous myths are, so that you are in a better position to side-step them.

So let’s get started right here, right now!

What Are Your Stocks Telling You…About You?

I’ve always believed that there’s more wisdom, insight and instruction to be found in your day to day experiences and results than you will ever find in any book.

There’s much more you can learn from your own life and from the lives of people around you, then you would from the eminent alive and the eminent dead.

But you must pay attention. You must be conscious. You’ll see and learn nothing with your eyes and mind closed. And because it’s your life that’s providing the information, wisdom, insight and instruction that I speak of, it’s all totally specific to you. No book is going to give you that!

This also holds true of your stock investments.

What lies already inside your portfolio says a lot about you.

Announcing: Two-Month Course in Financial Statement Analysis

Over the years, if there is one big issue I have seen small investors face while searching for businesses to invest in, it is that they find it difficult to read financial statements that companies use to report their financial performance.

The terms like Assets, Liabilities, and Equity seem like bouncers!

In fact, the very term ‘financial statements’ sounds so over-whelming to most investors, that they don’t look what lies inside an annual report, which is such an important document to read before investing in any business.

But the reality is that reading financial statements in one of the most important skills you must learn before getting into stock picking…

…and it is one skill that would give you an upper edge over 95% of all individuals who are just trying their luck in the stock market, as they speculate in stocks without understanding what they are getting into.

In fact, if you know just the right ways to read and understand the financial statements, you can make much better investment decisions than someone who would just not look at the ‘numbers’.

Over the last few months, I have received requests from a lot of readers for a specialized course in financial statement analysis.

In light of that, I am happy to announce a new 2-month course exclusively focused on this subject – of analyzing financial statements.

Value Investing Contest Winning Entry #6: Swaraj Engines

This report was prepared by Nishanth Muralidhar, as part of the Safal Niveshak Value Investing Contest. None of the facts herein have been validated by Safal Niveshak. Also, please DO NOT treat this report as a “recommendation” from either the author or Safal Niveshak. Do your own homework.

About the Business
The Indian tractor industry has 13 national and a few regional participants. The market share is, however, concentrated amongst the top-five manufacturers, who account for over 90% of total volumes.

India’s current tractor penetration is estimated at 20 tractors per 1,000 hectares of agricultural land. While this is close to the averages in some countries, the statistic belies the fact most of the land holdings in India are smaller than those in foreign countries. Also penetration numbers vary widely across states, with states like Punjab, Haryana or Western UP enjoying significantly higher penetration compared to the rest of the country. Some regions like Eastern Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have relatively low penetration levels.

Also, there exists headroom for growth of smaller horsepower tractors among small and marginal farmers. Further, even if tractor density was to remain constant, demand in the industry is expected to remain sound on account of shortening tractor replacement cycle.

Industry growth drivers are scarcity of farm labour, strong replacement demand, government support, increasing mechanization and exports (From ICRA 2012 Report).

Mahindra and Mahindra Tractors (M&M) is the market leader, having a share of 40% and has only one supplier for its ‘Swaraj’ brand of tractors – Swaraj Engines Ltd. (SEL).