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Warning: A Big Investing Mistake You May Commit in these Rising Markets

A simple definition of investing is that it is the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future.

In simpler words, investing is the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the well-calculated expectation of receiving more purchasing power in the future.

Even simpler, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date.

I would’ve made this even simpler, but then as Albert Einstein said, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” 🙂

But isn’t “simplicity” what you as an investor looking for in your investment life?

Ask any expert his view on the latest sharp rise in stock prices and where does he sees the market going forward, and you may hear words like – monetary policy, fiscal policy, current account deficit, QE, shifts in Philips curve, inflationary expectations, interest rates, etc.

As an individual investor, I have little interest in such esoteric terms. I hope you are sailing in the same boat as I am.

But then, we as investors still need to make some decisions.

So how do you “simply” decide whether to invest in the stock market after it has risen by almost 10% over the past one month while you stayed out of it?

More specifically, what is the biggest factor in deciding whether you want to invest in stocks like Amara Raja, Blue Star, BHEL, and Crompton Greaves after they have risen by 25-30% over the past thirty days? (I’ve used these specific names just because some readers have asked my view on these stocks)


In fact, someone recently asked me whether he should invest in Kingfisher Airlines given that the stock has almost doubled from its lows of August!

What drives you in a rising market?
What do you think leads you to decide whether to invest in such buoyant times when everyone except you looks like a perfect market timer who invested right at the bottom and is now big time in the money?

If you think the answer is anything of the following…

  • Your deep understanding of the business
  • Quality of the business
  • Intrinsic value

…you are wrong!

There is one – and largely one – reason most people (yes, including you and me!) invest in a market that has risen too fast and too soon. And that is…

Regret
How you “feel” as an investor largely depends on your recent experience in investing.

If you have been out of the market and have not participated in the profits others have recently enjoyed, you may be feeling a sharp pain of regret…

…like I am feeling seeing stocks like Blue Star, BHEL, Crompton Greaves, which I analyzed when they were 30% lower than their latest prices, but did not buy because I thought those prices were higher than the intrinsic values.

Of course, I am not feeling as excited on seeing my recent gains in Tata Motors and Tata Steel as I am feeling the regret of missing out on the “star” stocks. That is a funny way the mind plays tricks on us!

Regret is an emotion that, psychologists have found, provides considerable motivation to investors.

Envy of others who have made more in the stock market than you, is a painful feeling.

Like this scene from 3 Idiots shows – “If a friend fails, it’s painful. But if a friend ranks first, it’s even more painful!”


The real cause of pain that makes you feel a “loser” is not that you missed out on those great returns in quick time. The real cause of pain is that such a miss diminishes your own ego (“How could he and not I?” kind of feeling).

Now, if these people who made so much in the market were really smarter and knew better, then one really feels like a laggard.

Even if they were not smarter, just lucky, it may not feel much better.

One can always seek emotional comfort in the thought that it was just luck that made others more successful in the short term (which, by the way, is mostly true), and bad luck that accounts for one’s own lack of success.

But the envy of others’ successes just continues to haunt you, and this leads you to regret staying out of the market (or not investing enough) when it was rising like a flame.

The instant thought that occupies your mind in such “envious and regretful” circumstances is that if you can participate in just one more period of an advancing stock market – assuming it advances for another such period – that will help ease your pain of losing out the last time.

It’s then that you jump into buying stocks that have already risen 30-40% in 1-2 months.

Even if you think that the markets can go down and your stocks can take a serious beating, you feel that the potential loss will NOT be much more demoralizing to your ego than the failure to participate has already been.

As Robert Shiller writes in his Irrational Exuberance

Although there are many other ways to deal with the thought that one is a “loser”, such as rediscovering the importance of being a good friend, spouse, or parent, or pursuing the simple things in life – it may well end up that the only really emotionally satisfying decision to make now is to get into the stock market.

Like it happened yesterday with me – instead of enjoying the movie at the theatre, I felt some pain having just seen the advertisement of ‘Sugarfree Natura’ and regretting not buying Zydus Wellness when it was 20% lower than the current price just a few months back, or when it was 60% lower when I had first met the management and had liked the story three years back!

Of course, since I have invested in some other winning stocks over the years, I occasionally feel the pride in these past successes. But the regret of not owning some bigger multi-baggers, while knowing that there are some close friends who have enjoyed their ride on such “jockeys”, sometimes takes me over.

Luckily, I realize these demons (of regret and envy) inside my head and have thus been fairly successful so far in not giving in to their provoking ways.

What about you? If you have missed out on the current rally, are you considering yourself a “loser” and thus itching to invest out of regret? (Please be honest!)

You see, it’s fine being a “loser” at times, until you are not losing your head!

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About the Author

Vishal Khandelwal is the founder of Safal Niveshak. He works with small investors to help them become smart and independent in their stock market investing decisions. He is a SEBI registered Research Analyst. Connect with Vishal on Twitter.

Comments

  1. Nice way to control your emotions, Vishal, smart 🙂

    Yes, I also regret not buying some stocks – like more of INFY when it fell below 2200. Yes, I’ve bought some, but not quite a lot…

    on a different note, I bought UNITED SPIRITS at 535, assuming that at some point stake sale would occur, but I could not hold on patiently, and dumped it at 620 when emotions told me not to touch a business which is tainted by unethical motives…but now in the hindsight, I realize, this way, I should quit investing, since my gain is someone else’s loss, so probably not such a morally pure thing…I really wished I kept holding USL and sold at 1300+ when finally the stake sale news came in recently…something similar with KFA…yes, bad stock, but I bought purely to leverage from FDI announcement, and could have made over 50% profit here too…special situations where you exit as soon as new is out…

    Other value picks include IGL which I bought first time in 2008 november! I missed Jubilant Foodworks IPO!!! Uff…its painful…but yes, it’d be more painful to now jump in…

    On the other hand, I’m happy I bought BHEL at 220, yes, I had strong conviction that its too undervalued at 200…similar with CROMPGREAV, and happy about PNB too…but then exiting PNB now since my objective is served, although much quicker than I thought…and yes, happy to see SRF stable above 220, my first small cap pick which is going good so far, and I’m comfortable and happy…

    The best thing is to have better control on my emotions 🙂 which is priceless!!!

    • Sunny…
      True… USL yes.. i didnt take a position due to the management concerns…
      But yes.. BHEL I had taken an exposure at 200 – 220 levels …
      i was tempted to buy ITC/colgate/Godrej… but anyway seems i have controlled my emotions ..praying all thses will fall to our IV levels…

  2. You got me, Vishal! Believe me, I was reading today’s post as if I was reading my mind. 😉

    Same emotions, same regret, envy etc….I have been going through in the past few days. So your post comes just in time. Thanks for writing and guiding us tribesmen on to the right thinking path. Cheers!

  3. Amit Kinhikar says:

    Thanks Vishal for timely reminder of rule #2, We should develop a investment process of always reminding rule #2.

    rule #1 : Do not lose money in the market.
    rule #2 : Always remember rule #1.

    Kind regards,
    Amit

  4. Krishnendu Ghosh says:

    Wonderful analysis on the effects of recent surge in stocks. If the feeling causes pain, it shows we are still not believing in the words of Warren Buffet, however we might show that we do understand him. Personally, I am not perturbed as I feel that good times (rally) or bad times(bear effect), a company with good management and strong business moat would continue to do well and may be better than its competitors in the bear market. If the stock is worth buying at a price relatively cheaper than the intrinsic value, then I would; else NO!!

    Controlling the the greed would be important. that’s my opinion.

    Regards,
    Krishnendu

  5. Manish Sharma says:

    I have always remained wary of paying too high a price not only for the stocks but for anything in general. And, as a result i have remaiend out of the market for long 😛
    However, i was reading the book by Parag Parikh and here i would like to write a portion that is appropriate in the context you have written this article –

    “For a retail investor there are two components of a stok return:
    A. The dividend one gets from the stok.
    B. The capital appreciation of the stok.

    However, both these sources of RETURNS ARE DEPENDENT ON THE PRICE ONE PAYS when one acquires the stock. If one buys a stock in a bull market when prices are high, then one takes a hit on the dividend yield, and capital appreiation would take much longer as the base price is higher.

    So, it is very important that the acquisition price is lower for one to have healthy stock returns. Hence, buying stocks WITHOUT TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE VALUE OF THE STOCK and the price one is paying for that value is a SURE WAY TO TAKE A HIT ON ONE’S LONG TERM RETURNS.

    Stock returns multiply over time. Hence, PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE are its best friends.”

  6. This is the beauty of markets.Inactivity can kill you emotionally with regret in both raising and falling markets. 🙂

  7. In this note you are actually poking.
    Stock markets are called markets of regrets “if you do not sell you regret and if you do not buy you regret”. It may well be true of other markets.
    I try not regret but just try to learn about my own thinking and the process. What I have concluded for sure is stay way from buying when the tide is rising…. thanks to all the articles on this fabulous tribe site.
    All such ups and downs show which stocks have strengths, which have latent weaknesses and which are consistent performers. So to me the list (posted by you and others a few days back) of probable stocks was very interesting.
    Thanks to all tribe members as always.

  8. Aksh Sheth says:

    If something is worth buying at all, it’s worth buying even after 10% or 20% hike in price…The underlying valuation of the business doesn’t change just because there has been some popular announcements by the Govt….they are almost as good as they were 4 months or even 8 months ago…There are plenty of good companies out there which are underpriced even today…error of omission is far better than the error of commission….There is no regret at all, at least on my side…what I think is worth buying, they are worth buying even today…It’s deadly to run after a running bus if you missed one…far better to wait for the next one…It’s coming soon! 🙂

  9. Hello All,
    I have a “Sell” story that i remember after reading this article. I bought Unitech @ 32 several months ago. When it fell to 22, i read an article on this website about when to sell stocks. Off all the reasons the one that stuck me was “The mistake was already done when you bought the bad stock.” So, after a week or so, i offloaded Untiech @ 18.25. Now its @ 24.9!! So, even though i kick myself for selling at 18.25, i know it was the right thing to do. So its true learning comes at a cost! Since then I dont mind paying a litlle extra for a stock as long as its a good long term investment (30+ yrs)and its not over priced.

  10. R K Chandrashekar says:

    Hi All Tribesman
    Here is a bit of advice for all of us:
    1. Don’t lose faith in the investing habit. No one including Buffet can buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price. That said, you win some, loss some. For every Page or TTK Prestige, Colgate I lost out selling early, I have gained in HUL, HDFC Bank,Asian Paints, Pidilite, Zydus Wellness, BHEL and whole host of others. Patience can cover up a whole lot of mistakes in the initial purchase of a stock.
    2. Buffet holding period is Lifelong. Let me tell you this if i had held on to the initial Colgate IPO -allotted 25 shares in 1979, followed by 5 Bonuses of 1: 1 and one 3: 5, followed by a split 1: 10, I would be holding 12800 shares @ current price of 1250 = Hold your breath: 1.6 Crores!!! That is the power of patience + Compounding.
    and i am not even talking of the dividends!! Tax free.
    3. Many a times we buy their product but not their stock. When we think of inner wear what comes to the mind- Jockey, Paints- Asian, Adhesive to stick- Fevicol, Paste- Colgate, Oil- Parachute/ Saffola, Sugar Free- Natura.
    Watches- Titan, the list goes on. If only we had bought: Page Ind, Asian Paints, Titan, Marico……!!!!
    Advt could also give you a clue about a co- Fevicol and Asian Paints come readily to mind.
    4. Like a mutual fund SIP, one can do a similar thing with a bunch of stocks- so over a period of time , you own a portfolio of quality blue chips. That is what i have done and wish all of you do the same.
    5. Don’t love the stocks- they can’t love you back. Don’t chase them if there prices have risen way beyond fundamentals. Wait- Law of averages will catch up.

    • Hi – I admire your examples – frank and to the point. thank you for sharing.

    • Sanjeev Bhatia says:

      Hi Mr. Chandrashekhar,

      very interesting cases but differ on couple of points: 🙁

      1. We might buy the product but it may not necessarily be a good stock buy. I might buy a maruti vehicle (in fat, I just did recently, two of them 😉 ) but will still not buy maruti stock. Reasons for buying a vehicle will be diffrent ( Availability of spares, resale etc.) than buying a stock. Valuation, eroding moat, declining market share can be other few aspects.

      2. SIP in a stock will not necessarily be a good idea. What is blue chip today might not be blue chip tomorrow, given the fast pace of fas changing dynamics. Just see the number of scrips which were originally in Nifty/Sensex which have simply vanished. Two, SIP works best in volatile markets. In a secualrly rising market( like we had between 2003-2008), lump sum investment is always better than SIP. Further, the monitoring still has to be done because if, God forbid, you are doing SIP in a stock whose fundamentals are deteriorating, your portfolio is going to take some nasty hit.

      Regards.

      Sanjeev Bhatia

      • Manish Sharma says:

        Bhatia Ji,

        Very good and astute observations, like always 🙂 Yup, buying the stock is not too similar as buying the product. Valuation is the key…and this factor is most important when it comes to buying ‘blue chips’ stocks as normally we have stable business and able management in most cases, we just need to figure out the reasonable price (easier said than done :/).

        I was just looking at some of the numbers of stocks like Titan, Asian Paints, Colegate etc….and I was quite astounded at their current valuation. Notwithstanding that these products will remain in demand 10 years from now, but is it a feasible decision to buy them at today’s sky-high prices?

        Like a bond, in stock also their is an inverse relationship between the yield and the price. But, unlike bond, we don’t know the terminal value and the rate of return. in a stock That’s a guesswork (unfortunately :s). Now when i see that Aisan paints market cap is even bigger than the market size of thew whole paint industry, i wonder aren’t we paying the terminal value at today’s price. That’s what happened to Infosys. The guy who bought Infosys at its peak had earned very lousy returns. Same is the case with Colegate, the market is discounting a growth rate of 25% for the next 10 years at today’s high prices. Titan too has a similar story. Its forward P/E is around 70 whereas ROE is in mid-30s. That means it will have to do twice the running to stay at the same place

        Stock prices don’t go up and down on fundamentals, they move on the basis of expectations. And, market is expecting too much from a Titan or a Page. Come to think of it, can Titan who has got around 20% share of the unorganised jewellery market can retain 30% growth year after year. Even, if we assume normalised economy growth of 6% then Titan will be earning 5 times of it, that means most Indians will be buying jewellery more than toothpastes, and soaps, a very unlikely scenario…Also, can Titan eat into the lion’s share of the unorganised market so soon,,what is the possibility of everyone buying jewellery from a Tanishq showroom !?…Can we see a situation where 10 years from now a Titan will be controlling 60% market share of the jewellery market, like Asian paints and Maruti Suzuki do in their respective industries!!??

        In my very humble opinion, these are some of the tough questions that needs to be probed before making investment even in the well established companies..

  11. Sanjeev Bhatia says:

    HI Vishal and other tribesmen,

    One of my favourite topics, behvioral finance. This is dam interesting one.

    In their book, “why Smart People make Big Money Mistakes” by Belsky/Gilovich, the authors have listed typical psychological biases investors are subjectd to, this Regret Aversion, combined with Loss aversion and sunk cost, ranks right at the top.

    Fortunately, an early awareness of these biases just when I joined Safal Niveshak has enabled me to move pretty much out of clutches of these biases. So now there is no exuberance on gettin hold of Symphony at 212 which is now at 450 in 3 odd months in he same way there is no despair on buying GI which has not moved anywhere. Keeping a zen like head is necessary to control your emotions, there will alwyas be omissions, there will always be comissions and there will always be next opportunity. What is important is your PROCESS has to be right, other things will automatically fall in place, as I was discussing with a great friend Manish a few days ago. Maybe having been there, done that for quite some time has enabled me more to be aware of my own fallacies a bit quicker.

    A great way, I have found, to keep out these biases is to have checklist of sorts, be it buying or selling. And always one should have a list of possible shares to buy so that once an opportunity is there due to some market crash, one is not subjected to anaylisis paralysis.

    More important is to have proper discipline than anything else. I bought some BHEL at 198/200 levels when my IV-Mos was about 192. It bounced back and went upto 230, then again it dropped down to 195. I put up a bid for 193. Sadly, it didnot go through and today the stock is at 255 levels just within 2 months. But instead of regret, I am happy that atleast my PROCESS of arriving at suitability of BHEL to my portfolio as well the IV calculations were okay. The market may or may not give me another chance to buy more of BHEL but if my Process is okay, I can find many more BHELs in my investing career, isn’t it? 😀

    Similarly, I bought Symphony around 212 about 3 months ago. My IV-MoS price was ard 420 at that time. Today the stock is at 450 +. Since I was getting about 100% return in 3 months flat, and more imprtantly, the CMP was nearing my IV calcualtion, I sold part of it at 425 levels. And now the price is at 450, even then there is no regret. Since I followed what my IV caculations were showing, the holding cost is now down to Rs.145/- and I still can afford to wait one or two quarters on how the company is faring. Opportunities will come, opportunities will go, what is important is the path you follow.:D

    Chasing the current hot stock/fund is the worst you can do to your portfolio. As one tribesman has put it, buses will come and go. What goes up comes down and vice versa, sooner or later law of averages will catch up.

    Happy Investing.

  12. Reni George says:

    Good Evening Tribesmen
    OK so now here we are ,discussing one of the biggest sins committed unknowingly for known things.”Hi reni,how are you yaar so whats up,hey it was a nice movement in the market,well actually i did not know this was coming….but lucky yaar, made 100000 cool profit and you might have made more than me….so your equity asset might have grown by 40 %,so where is the party for the profit”.Having heard that,a pain erupted in reni’s heart…sending some pain waves to the brain also. “You idiot how could you miss that,you were looking at nifty 4200, and look now nifty is at 5700…and before you again do your, that bloody value investing calculation…nifty will reach its all time of 6357 and will move beyond that…look too much of time has been wasted…..there is still pretty more movement left…the FIIs are pouring in the money by hordes….so what if your selection “Bhel” has moved by 60 Rs,still it can go further a 40 % appreciation cannot be ruled out from here…look for the year it’s still 22 % down,come on act fast”These were the words of reni’s heart which was trying to convince his brain to invest.Invest or you will regret.

    So this might be happening with everyone here,if someone says no then please do not try to fool me…these thoughts are bound to generate…who could not invest at low level and looking at the rally is tempted to because he is regretting…Opportunity loss.Ratio regret takes place..you might have seen that our brain hypothetically buys stock at low level and the selling point is the highest price,but reality is different.

    Now when the regret bias is born,look how it tries to influence our thought process…the incremental value of the stock is calculated on price terms and not percentage terms,because in percentage terms the actual difference might be pretty Large.Let me put it in an Example you are a investor and you researched a stock that is a good buy at current market price of 20 rupees,you are ready hammer and tong to buy that stock,but for some unforeseen activity you just delayed the buy,in the meantime a nice rally happens and this stock of yours reached 26 one day you check at money control and find its price at 26,Oh no i was buying at 20 and now its 26…but no prob my target is 50 and it has just moved 6 rupees more..I will enter at this level or it will move more up.You buy that stock,now look actually if the rise would have been calculated in percentage terms it was 30 %,which would have had a large movement effect on your brain and you could have postponed your purchase…but the 6 rs movement felt less.Now assume this 30 % movement for the whole year took just in a fortnight,now you are holding and holding…and one find day your patience run out and you dump it for 25 and its again starts moving slowly to your target of 50.Everything was right about the stock you researched,but your brain fooled you with some biases and you lost out.

    So what is the medicine for this regret effect…can it be nullified… why not ,lets check out..
    (a)Always calculate the appreciation in a stock in percentage terms…it gives out the real picture.
    (b)Start a piggy bank for your son….drop the money that you intended to buy the stock in regret..into that piggy bank…break it after some time when you are saner…you might find the stock again at you intended buy price level and your son will also be happy seeing the piggy bank well..
    (c)When regret effect takes place…move away from all the noise that is generated…stop looking at business new,the paper and above all money control.
    (d)Start accumulating cash……like a tiger wait for the kill..and then go full speed…believe me you will enjoy the kill
    (e)start asking multiple questions about the rally,the more you question,the more it will be difficult for your brain to find satisfying answers.

    so here we are killing the regret effect.I would thank vishal bringing this to the fore.Its one of the deadly tools and is like slow poison.
    Thanks and Regards
    Happy Investing

    Reni George

  13. Dear Vishal,

    Q: How do you “simply” decide whether to invest in the stock market after it has risen by almost 10% over the past one month while you stayed out of it?

    A: My past experience taught me not to look in index or market in total.

    When investing in individual stocks, you are not buying index, hence you need to look at individual stocks and its intrinsic value and not the 10% rise in market. Just look at share prices of RCOM, DLF, suzlon kind of stocks when index touched 14000 1st time and then now at 19000 levels. At the same time look at page industries or even Tata Motors or HUL during this period.

    When investing in fund, if you are in a good fund, most likely the fund value would have increased somewhat better than the bench mark index and you must be happy about it. If not, look at the past record of the fund and its past / present performance. If its a regular under performer, it can be ear marked for redemption to tweak your asset allocation however need not be redeemed immediately. If the rise in market value warrants a selling to adjust your asset allocation, just sell that under performer.

    Q: What is the biggest factor in deciding whether you want to invest in stocks like Amara Raja, Blue Star, BHEL, and Crompton Greaves after they have risen by 25-30% over the past thirty days?

    A: It should be intrinsic value of those stocks, if one knows how to value it. Otherwise, don’t even bother to buy stocks. Equity investment is always possible through quality mutual funds.

    Q: What about you? If you have missed out on the current rally, are you considering yourself a “loser” and thus itching to invest out of regret? (Please be honest!). You see, it’s fine being a “loser” at times, until you are not losing your head!

    It will always itch you if you have missed out on the rally. Here I split the investments as investments made in Mutual Funds and Stocks:

    In Mutual funds, this 10% rise will not make materialistic difference (unless you have invested a substantial amount in it) if you look at your very long term goals that are always staring at you. In fact, I will curse such short term rallies, which makes my purchase cost higher. If you have already invested enough in funds, look at your asset allocation and decide if you can reduce your equity holdings by booking some profits. If you are SIPing for your long term goals, you need not bother too much, this 10% raise is insignificant for you. You should continue to invest irrespective of this 10% rise in index. I continue to do that.

    In stocks, yes you will really feel bad about it. But instead of itching and cursing, look at it as an opportunity. A month back you (me included) may be looking at portfolio tracker and watching many stocks in deep red. You would have certainly felt, how and when you can get out of the same (even if its at loss). This is one such opportunity for you. As one of the reader pointed out that he quit unitech at 18 and now it is at 24. If someone is still holding unitech, it is certainly an opportunity to get rid of it in this rally. You may switch this amount to cash and wait for another chance to invest in quality stocks. It has never been one way up market (except for some stocks), law of average brings all stocks down with or without bad news and wait for such a time to reinvest this cash.

    It is futile to time the entry beyond a certain level. If you are convinced that BHEL’s IV is 190, and you see the stock is at 200 or 205, and if you are a long term investor who is ready to hold this stock for many years to come, at least just go and buy some reasonable quantity. Don’t wait for that 193 to get in to. It doesn’t make any big difference (unless you are a trader) in the long term. I bought reasonable quantity between 220 and 200. Do you think I am smart, not at all, on the next bad news you may get it even at 180 and I may look like a fool.

    As I had cash, I have picked many good stocks also of reasonable quantity in the down turn. Most of them have gone up with the market, I may not sell them in this short run up. In fact, in this run up, I am selling all those stocks that I was cursing myself till last month for buying it. This will give me some cash to wait for next round of purchase. In that next round who knows may be BHEL at 180 or other quality stock around its I.V is available then I shall buy them.

    This selling and buying will also adjust my asset allocation, which is the key in managing risk.

    Regards

    Ajay

    • Manish Sharma says:

      Very good points Ajay. I totally agree with you on differentiating your investments from trades. If you are a long term investors or investing through MFs then this 10-15% up and down movements are not too significant. Focusing on long term investment goals and paying attention to adequate margin of safety are more important than regretting missing the recent rally.

  14. R K Chandrashekar says:

    Hi Sanjeev
    Your points are certainly valid. What i meant was, it gives you a starting point for evaluation and not necessarily to go and buy the stock just because you bought their product. Many a times, wealth of information can be gleaned by observing what people are buying at a store or retail outlet, or even talking to the lady of the house!! Again, when i talk of blue chips- these are companies with strong brands which are supposed to last a lifetime and readily come to mind when we talk of a product category and the holding period as Buffer would say- For ever. They make stagnate for years but bounce back and last a lifetime. Look at companies which stagnated for a while and bounced back- Colgate, HUL, Tata Motors ( Made a loss of 500 Crores after launching Indica, and the stock price came down to 55 ( FV 10) , L & T, Titan, GSK Consumer ( Think of Crocin, Iodex, Horllcks -brands which are leaders in their category).
    Again SIP in stocks only to build a portfolio of quality blue chips at reasonable valuations- Rupee cost averaging and spreading of risk- only after due diligence of the stocks you want to have in your investment basket. Again as i said -don’t chase stocks which have risen beyond their fundamentals and wait patiently till it has come down. Be realistic- to pick a quality Blue chip, you may have to pay a small premium to the intrinsic value to own it for a life time. You could even depending on your risk profile, make a portfolio of emerging blue chips- some may turn out duds, but a few can give you multibagger returns- Think of Zydus Wellness, Havells, Page Ind, Eicher Motors.

  15. Vikas Bargale says:

    Hi Vishal,
    Good write-up.
    If the discussion of ‘Regret’ has come up, let me share this video link from PPFAS.
    Its from Parag Parikh. As per me he is the second best after Sanjay Bakshi when it comes to understanding of Behavioral Finance in India.

    Regards,
    Vikas

  16. Same feelings here.

    All the more I am rushing to buy a few which have risen only 10% when the peers have risen 20-40%. The notion here is that the bull market is in and I will get off before it heats up.

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