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Vishal Khandelwal

The Folly of Prediction (Freakonomics)

“It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.”

Listen to the radio here: [audio:https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/audio.wnyc.org/freakonomics_specials/freakonomics_specials060411.mp3]

Safal Niveshak Weekly Wrap

The global financial markets are standing on the brink of a steep cliff, with the US economy staring at a possible default.

Whatever happens during the coming week, when the US government decides its future course of action whether it must borrow more or cut its spending, it’s dawning on investors that a major crisis is just round the corner.

So whether or not the US defaults, or the Chinese economy goes downhill, or maybe the European crisis intensifies, times are indeed scary if you are already invested.

Talk about the Indian economy, and things aren’t any rosier out here. Inflation remains high and rising interest rates are choking the growth of businesses.
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What Do You Understand By ‘Risk’ in Investing?

“You must know your risk appetite before investing.”

“Markets are risky and can crash 30%. Invest later.”

“I am a risk-averse investor.”

“I can’t take risk with my money. This stock can fall 20%!”

“Investing is risky. And I don’t have the risk-taking ability.”

These are some common statements/advice I’ve heard from investors and financial advisors over the past few years, and especially when stocks prices are on a correction mode.
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Can Your Stocks Defeat the Inflation Demon?

“Americans are getting stronger. Twenty years ago, it took two people to carry ten dollars’ worth of groceries. Today, a five year old can do it.” – Henny Youngman

This is a telling statement on the menace that is inflation.

You must’ve heard stories from your grandmother how a few rupees used to buy a week of groceries when she was young.

We, the present generation, can only imagine such a situation. Now a few rupees would get you a snare from a beggar!
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Who Else Wants to Beat The Market?

When you invest your money with a mutual fund, you don’t normally think in terms of losing money.

All you want is to make money. And this must be your fund manager’s goal as well, or so you may think.

But if you read most mutual fund advertisements and what fund managers boast about on business channels and in newspaper interviews, their ultimate goal is to ‘beat the market’.

In fact, the entire mutual fund industry seems to have conspired against the small investor by pitching him nothing but this – “Give me your money, and I’ll help you beat the market!”
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Only One Thing Matters When Investing in a Company

That you must identify good businesses and invest in them for the long term to become a successful investor is what we discussed yesterday.

The most obvious question you might have now is – “How do I know which businesses are good?”

Well, there are several rules that successful investors like Warren Buffett follow to separate good businesses from the bad ones.

But the one rule that stands tall amongst them is… [Read more…] about Only One Thing Matters When Investing in a Company

Know Where to ‘Bang’ To Become a Successful Investor

A plumber was called to fix a pipe. After completing the task, he turned to the house-owner and said, “That’ll be a hundred rupees.”

“What?” the owner replied, “A hundred rupees for just banging on the pipe? That’s too much!”

“Banging on the pipe is only five rupees, sir. Knowing where to bang – that’s ninety-five.”

Well, in stock market investing, knowing where to ‘bang’ – finding the right stocks to invest – is the secret to your fortune.
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Safal Niveshak Weekly Wrap

The times are highly uncertain if you are a stock market investor. While global and Indian stock markets are showing occasional bouts of euphoria, we at Safal Niveshak believe these are going to be short-lived.

The western economies are not doing well. And the Indian economy isn’t showing positive signs as well. Inflation remains high and rising interest rates are choking the growth of businesses.

Amidst all this, there is a flurry of predictions from stock market experts – on topics ranging from depression in the west, inflation in India, movement of stock markets next week, and performance of derivatives market this coming Friday.
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