There’s a comforting illusion many of us as investors hold onto, which is the idea that if we just read enough, track enough, listen to the right experts, and follow the right indicators, we will finally be able to predict the direction of the market with some confidence.
But experience, history, and honest reflection reveal a more humbling truth: nobody really knows anything for sure, especially in investing.
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Now, don’t get me wrong here. It’s not that people aren’t smart or that research doesn’t help. It’s that markets are shaped by a complex web of human emotions, economic variables, political decisions, global events, and plain randomness, none of which can be forecasted accurately and consistently.
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