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You are here: Home / 2023 / Archives for July 2023

Archives for July 2023

Stress and Investing: A 20-Point Checklist

I was at my hometown recently and chanced upon a friend who works as an investment banker in Delhi. We had met almost after 15 years, and so I could notice a big contrast in his looks as compared to what it was in the early 2000s. He looked much older than his age, around 39, and so I enquired about his health.

To my utter shock, he said, “I had an angioplasty late last year, where they put a tiny tube in my blood vessel to restore blood flow through my arteries.”

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In short, he meant, “I just survived a heart attack.”

“Stress is part of my job profile, you see,” he shrugged it off jokingly.

I had earlier read of a 35-year-old London-based hedge fund trader who died of a heart attack in 2013, and of the head of JP Morgan’s equity sales, aged 37, who had also died of heart failure in 2012. But my friend was, well, my friend, and thus the gravity of the situation weighed heavier this time.

“Is it worth it?” I asked my friend.

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Of Lucky Idiots and Orangutans

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Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital wrote this in one of his 2006 memos to shareholders titled ‘Risk‘ –

In the investing world, one can live for years off one great coup or one extreme but eventually accurate forecast. But what’s proved by one success? When markets are booming, the best results often go to those who take the most risk. Were they smart to anticipate good times and bulk up on beta, or just congenitally aggressive types who were bailed out by events? Most simply put, how often in our business are people right for the wrong reason?

These are the people Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “lucky idiots,” and in the short run it’s certainly hard to tell them from skilled investors.

Warren Buffett, in his brilliant 1984 article titled The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, describes a contest in which each of the 225 million Americans starts with US$ 1 and flips a coin once a day. The people who get it right on day one collect a dollar from those who were wrong and go on to flip again on day two, and so forth. Ten days later, 220,000 people have called it right ten times in a row and won US$ 1,000.

Buffett writes –

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

After another ten days, there are 215 ‘survivors’ who have been right 20 times in a row and have each won US$ 1 million. By this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million.

…this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they’ll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?”

By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same — 215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

This is a very important story and the reason I am reminding you of this today is because there are now more than 215 egotistical orangutans that are talking about how they have turned small amounts of money into millions investing in stocks and elsewhere and how you can do that easily too.

Worse, each of these 215 have a following of more than 215,000, so you can understand the multiplier effect of the ‘how to get rich easily from stocks’ theory.

Even worse, they are not chest-thumping hanging on trees of some far off jungle, but in a computer or mobile screen right in front of you, on Twitter, YouTube, and everywhere.

Buffett said –

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

Sir John Templeton said –

The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.

This time is not any different, and I wish you realize this now and not when the tide goes out.

There will be a lot of naked swimmers then. I wish you are not one of them.

Watch out.


That’s about it from me for today.

If you liked this post, please share with others on WhatsApp, Twitter, LinkedIn. Or just email them the link to this post.

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Stay safe.

Regards, Vishal

Be Water, My Friend

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It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change. – Charles Darwin

The thing that separates us humans from other animals is that we constantly change into new forms, new avatars. We are sad, we are happy, we are emotional, and we are angry. We communicate through different languages, we do different kinds of work, and we deal with different kind of people differently. Effectively, we keep on changing ourselves as per the demands of time and situation.

In fact, success in life depends largely on whether we are able to change ourselves with changing times.

If we are flexible and formless – like water – taking the form of whatever is around us, we gain power and succeed against those who rigidly hold on to their ground.

Despite this, when it comes to our ideas – especially when we have only one – we rigidly hold on to them.

This is very much like Henry Ford who supposedly said, “People can have the Model T in any colour – so long as it’s black.” This nearly ruined Ford Motors Company in the 1920s, because while Mr. Ford was in love with his idea of “only black Model T” cars, Americans were shifting to bigger, faster, fancier, and brightly painted automobiles.

Or very much like the old “me” who would often not change views on stocks even when circumstances changed, and paid heavy prices.

I see investors fall in love with their stocks in the garb of ‘buy and hold’. We will hold on to bad businesses, and especially those that are going downhill. We will remain stuck in a status quo mode because we hate to admit we have lost money. We will even put a higher value on the stocks we already own than we would be willing to pay for the same things if we didn’t own them. All this because we are too rigid to change our ideas, even when circumstances are shouting at us to do so.

If you have been through such a moment in your own life (or investing life), you would like to hear what Bruce Lee, who died 50 years ago, today, advised –

Empty your mind. Be formless, shapeless, like water. Put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. Put water into a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Water can flow or creep or drip or crash. Be water, my friend.

Haruki Murakami wrote this in Kafka On The Shore –

Sometimes fate is like a small sandstorm that keeps changing directions. You change direction but the sandstorm chases you. You turn again, but the storm adjusts. Over and over you play this out, like some ominous dance with death just before dawn. Why? Because this storm isn’t something that blew in from far away, something that has nothing to do with you. This storm is you. Something inside of you. So all you can do is give in to it, step right inside the storm, closing your eyes and plugging up your ears so the sand doesn’t get in, and walk through it, step by step. There’s no sun there, no moon, no direction, no sense of time. Just fine white sand swirling up into the sky like pulverized bones. That’s the kind of sandstorm you need to imagine.

And you really will have to make it through that violent, metaphysical, symbolic storm. No matter how metaphysical or symbolic it might be, make no mistake about it: it will cut through flesh like a thousand razor blades. People will bleed there, and you will bleed too. Hot, red blood. You’ll catch that blood in your hands, your own blood and the blood of others.

And once the storm is over you won’t remember how you made it through, how you managed to survive. You won’t even be sure, in fact, whether the storm is really over. But one thing is certain. When you come out of the storm you won’t be the same person who walked in. That’s what this storm’s all about.

Problems arise all the time in life and in investing, and you can try to keep your rigid shape, smashing into the problems until you break. Or you can be like water and slip through the cracks.

Charlie Munger said –

The game of life is the game of everlasting learning. At least it is if you want to win.

In fact, a few of life’s great pleasures are to keep learning, letting go of previously cherished ideas, and emptying your mind for new ideas to come in. Then you’re free to look for new ones.

Be formless. Be adaptable. Be open to new ideas. Like water.

It’s indeed a pleasure to be water, my friend.


That’s about it from me for today.

If you liked this post, please share with others on WhatsApp, Twitter, LinkedIn, or just email them the link to this post.

With respect,
— Vishal


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The Art of Asking Good Questions

Two hunters are out in the jungle when suddenly one of them collapses. His pulse is gone and his eyes are glazed. The other guy yanks out his cell phone and calls the emergency services.

He gasps, “My friend is dead! What should I do?”

The operator says “Calm down, sir. I can help. First, let’s make sure if he’s really dead.”

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Beware the Boredom of Bull Market

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I received an email recently where one reader asked – “What you say about long-term investing in the stock market is all good. But doesn’t it get boring after a time? I mean, first the process of reading annual reports to find good businesses, and then if you find some, holding on to them for the long run doing nothing. How does one maintain interest in this thing? How does one make this process and journey exciting?”

I thought these were good questions. In fact, questions like these used to bother me when I started out on my journey of reading annual reports, analyzing financial statements, and practicing long term investing more than a decade back.

In fact, I was talking to an investor friend recently, who confessed of boredom because he was not able to find stocks worth buying in this rising market. “Even if you are a long-term investor, what do you do but feel bored when you don’t find anything worth buying because everything seems to be so inflated?” he questioned.

“I agree,” I said.

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Stock Investing is a Humbling Game

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Not losing money is a critical part of the stock investing process. Successful investors say it in different ways, but the point is always the same.

Warren Buffett has often said – “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”

But he has also said – “If you don’t make mistakes, you can’t make decisions.”

You see, the problem is not in making mistakes. The problem is in not knowing when you have made a mistake and thus not learning from it.

Unfortunately, openness to making mistakes and recognizing them is beyond most of us. Why is that?

Two reasons. The first, our society’s phobia for making mistakes, something that begins at school, where we learn to learn what we are taught rather than to resolve problems. We are fed with facts, and those who make the fewest mistakes are considered to be the smarter ones. So we learn that it is embarrassing to not know and to make mistakes. We feel bad when we find out we have made a mistake or do not know something.

[Read more…] about Stock Investing is a Humbling Game

Thinking in Bets

Have you ever wondered where did the idea of “40-hour work with 2-day weekend” begin? Many believe that it was Henry Ford who started this practice of 5-day work week. Ford is considered one of the greatest capitalists of the last century.

In an apocryphal account, a journalist asked Ford the secret behind his massive success.

“Two words,” replied Ford, “Good decisions.”

“And how did you come to make good decisions?” the journalist asked.

“One word. Experience.” Ford quipped.

“Well, then it begs the next question. How did you gain the experience?”

“Two words again. Bad decisions.” Ford smiled.

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Safal Niveshak is 12 Years Old

This is a story from January 15, 2009. It’s not my story, but an inspiring one.

US Airways Flight 1549 on its way from New York City’s LaGuardia Airport to Charlotte, North Carolina, struck a flock of birds shortly after take-off, losing all engine power.

Unable to reach any airport for an emergency landing due to their low altitude, pilots Chesley ‘Sully’ Sullenberger and Jeffrey Skiles glided the plane in the Hudson River. All 155 people on board were rescued by nearby boats, with only a few serious injuries.

[Read more…] about Safal Niveshak is 12 Years Old

Value Investing in the Age of Disruption

In a world where you can’t predict the direction from which disruption will strike, how do you deal with the challenge of finding and owing businesses that may not be disrupted, or avoiding the ones that may be?

In 1968, Warren Buffett accepted a seat on the board of Grinnell college’s endowment fund. Joe Rosenfield, Buffett’s friend at Grinnell, was making an initial investment of $100,000 in a small semiconductor startup. He offered Buffett to participate in the deal which he refused.

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