Archives for November 2011

“Europe’s debt crisis is threatening to push large parts of the world into recession,” read a headline in The Telegraph.

The Greeks, the Italians, the French…the Europeans are seemingly all set to bring the entire world economy down to its knees, as if to prove a point to the Americans that they aren’t the only ones to be controlling the ‘recession’ lever.

Anyways, if the woes in Europe and the US aren’t enough, weakening economic growth and corporate profits in India are also playing spoilsport for the stock markets.

Note: Country names represent their respective stock market indices; Source: Yahoo Finance
One company here is asking the government to bail it out because it can’t pay off its debts that it had taken to fund an aggressive growth in the past.
[Read more…] about Fasten Your Seat Belt…Air Pocket Ahead

If you follow global financial news, you must have come across reports of the recent IPO of Groupon. Well, for those who haven’t heard of it, Groupon is an online seller of discount coupons, and acts like a ‘deal of the day’ website.

The company’s shares listed on the US exchanges on 4th November, and jumped 31% by the end of the first day of trading. This brought the company’s valuation to more than US$ 16 billion.

How much is US$ 16 billion? Well, that’s more than the respective market capitalization of 14 of India’s top 30 companies on the Sensex.

Now that’s not amazing. What’s amazing is that US investors have paid a high price for a company, which… [Read more…] about Groupon and the Great Stock Market Insanity called ‘IPOs’

I recently got the opportunity to lecture on the subject most close to my heart – the art of sensible stock market investing – at Tata Business Support Services (TBSS), Pune.

It was a great first experience. The audience consisted of 30 young and middle-aged executives who were great listeners, going by the questions they asked me after the lecture was over.

Here is my presentation from the lecture. I hope you get the value that you expect of it.

I also take this opportunity to thank Mr. Pradeep Bahuguna, Sr. Manager, Corporate HR at TBSS and an avid reader of The Safal Niveshak Post, without whose support this lecture wouldn’t have happened.

Here’s your presentation. Enjoy it, and please share it with your friends and colleagues who might be interested in learning the art of sensible, independent stock market investing.

If you are not able to view the presentation above, click here to view.

Click here to view the photographs from the lecture.

I am talking about the unemployed Indian youth, who has the potential to create big trouble for the country in the future, if his aspirations are not met.

Of course, the choice of bad investments, rising inflation, rising interest rates, or a weak economy also pose as big risks to your investments.

But then, these are some of the risks that you can see now. And over that, these are risks that are manageable to a great extent.

But who can manage or control a youngster, without a job for months and years, with himself and family to feed, and not knowing what to do to meet his basic needs?

Now imagine millions and millions of such youngsters and what their combined force can do to bring a country down to its knees, and with the it entire economic and financial system.
[Read more…] about The Biggest Risk to Your Investments Might Be Your Neighbour

James Montier, a long-time favourite among the readers of value investing, produced a white paper in March 2011, entitled “The Seven Immutable Laws of investing”.

In the paper, the investment strategist at the leading global investment management firm, GMO, presented a set of laws to guide investors towards investing sensibly in stock markets.

These laws are:

1. Always insist on a margin of safety
2. This time is never different
3. Be patient and wait for the fat pitch
4. Be contrarian
5. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number
6. Be leery of leverage
7. Never invest in something you don’t understand

These seven laws capture everything you need to become a smarter and successful investor.

I hope these help you to avoid some of the worst mistakes, which, when made, tend to lead investors down the path of permanent loss of capital.

Click here to read the white paper.