Here is an email I received from a reader of The Safal Niveshak Post some time back.
I am an NRI living in the Gulf, with no plans to return to India in the near future. Now the problem is that, my wife and all her relatives are insisting that I invest in real estate in Chennai. They feel that it is the real “solid” investment, all the rest is in paper. They keep giving me examples of other people, especially relatives, who have seen terrific returns by investing in real estate.
But, when I see the current prices when compared to the rental yield and the risk and hassle which we take upon ourselves when we invest in real estate, it makes me hesitate. Also when I went to the OMR (Old Mahabalipuram Road) I saw at least 15,000 to 20,000 new units coming up…including Hiranandani, Purvankara and the others. Most of the purchasers there are investors who are planning to rent them out.
Will it not create a glut of housing in the near future and bring down the rents even more?
I already have an own house in Chennai, so, even when I come to India, I have a place to stay.
Because I’m an NRI, all my money is white and I feel that the high prices in Chennai or anywhere in India, are due to a large extent due to the black money involved.
Another reader asked me recently why I don’t like companies from the realty sector as I’ve mentioned on the StockTalk page.
Then, one attendee at the Art of Investing Workshop in Chennai asked my opinion on the future of realty prices in India.
While I have provided my answers to the respective gentlemen, I thought a post on this subject was long overdue. Thus I am writing today my personal views on where I see realty prices in India moving in the future.
Let’s start with…
What ails India’s real estate?
Well, there is clearly a demand for real estate in India.
Unlike the US or other developed countries that continue to bear the burden of their housing bubble burst, most people in India don’t have their first home. And most of those who have their first homes, it’s almost like a cubicle.
As per some statistics, India has an unfulfilled demand for around 20 million homes, 5 million office units, and around 150,000 hotel rooms.
Then, we require hundreds of schools and colleges to educate millions of children. Apart from this, we also need to construct hospitals to take care of millions of elderly people who have been ignored by their children.
Roughly, India needs to build some 3 billion square feet of property over the next 5-10 years to partially meet some of this demand.
So I see no problem in terms of demand – there’s going to be a massive expansion in the amount of square footage that people (and companies) will be buying in India going forward.
So what ails India’s real estate?
The only – and the biggest – problem I see with real estate in India is that the sector is very closely connected to the politicians.
Sam Zell, one of the most famous real estate experts globally, was in India in late 2006. When asked about his view on the real problems in the Indian real estate market, he said something like this – “…there is no shortage of land in India; there is a shortage of zoned land.”
Zoned land is what the politicians ration to builders thus creating artificial shortages.
So the shortage of zoned land – on which real estate is constructed – is a man-made shortage in India…a shortage created by policy.
As we saw during the license raj days of 1980s, you had the Ambassadors and Fiats as the only cars selling in India. These were the worst cars in the world selling at one of the highest prices for quality in the world.
This is exactly what the problem is with India’s real estate.
You have limited amount of real estate being sold because the land zoning (that creates artificial shortage of land for construction) is there to make the friends of the politicians (builders, real estate companies, etc.), and the politicians, rich…at your cost.
So unless there’s a revolution to end this nexus, the mess in India’s real estate is not going to get cleaned up (and buyers like I and you will continue to wait for prices to fall, which won’t happen).
See what happened to property prices in India…
If you look at what happened after the Lehman crisis that started in September 2008, foreign investors who were investing in real estate projects and backing realty developers took money out of real estate in India.
There was a fall in realty prices in some of the hyped locations. Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Mumbai…all corrected sharply.
Source: National Housing Bank
But see where prices in these cities are as of now – they’ve all gone right back up!
In short, even when realty prices globally are reeling under trouble after the Lehman crisis, property prices in India didn’t fall as much as they should have or for as long as they should have.
“So what’s the reason?” you may wonder.
See, this may be coincidence, but then if you remember, we had elections in April 2009.
As per RBI data, starting 6 months prior to this i.e., around October 2008, bank lending to realty companies went through the roof (see the green bar in the chart below).
Source: Reserve Bank of India;
Note: These loans are only to real estate companies, and exclude housing loans to individuals
The PSU banks whom we have our deposits with, took our money – our savings – and gave it as loans to realty companies so that they could stay afloat and they were not forced to sell their real estate to you at cheap price.
This is because once the banks gave them the money, the ‘about to go bankrupt’ realty companies had the holding power…the power to stay alive.
So your savings went – and continue to go – to realty companies…so that property prices are kept high…so that you are denied a home.
Amazing, isn’t it?
Maybe you should talk to your PSU bank branch manager the next time you meet him, and ask him where have your deposits been ‘deposited’.
So where are India’s realty prices headed?
My answer to this question depends entirely on what happens to the politician-builder nexus in the future.
Economics tells me that realty prices should go down, but politics (which has always had a heavy hand in India) tells me that this is not going to happen.
I see India’s real estate to remain a massively corrupt industry. This coupled with the ever-rising demand will keep this industry in a bubble..always waiting to pop!
What do you say?
By the way, I recently wrote an article on why a house is a great investment for someone starting on his investing career. Let me clarify one thing here – my view on house as a great investment is assuming that you are able to buy the asset at the right price after doing a proper assessment of prices in your area. It’s dangerous to speculate on housing prices, and it’s equally dangerous to buy a house just because you see prices continuing to rise in the future.
About Vishal Khandelwal
The real estate industry is a deeply entrenched cartel, which is very evident. The only two industries which can suck up and hold large amounts of cash (apart from crime/ money laundering/ drugs) are real estate and education (again in a way real estate).
During good times real estate sucks in funds from banks and during bad times black money sustains it. The evidence is that in 2008 the equity markets fell some 60% while real estate only got illiquid, but hardly any distress sales happened !!
Given the demand supply gap, real estate will continue to give returns. The nexus mentioned by you exists in all industries which have limited supply (real estate – land, education – again land grab/ license) / natural resources (coal/ power/ spectrum). Real estate is only more evident while many of the rest happen in a more sublime manner. the recent judgement regarding 2G that all resources should be auctioned has stalled the whole well greased nexus.
So, I guess I have to grit my teeth & invest in Real Estate… One of the few places to protect your purchasing power.
Stocks are volatile, risky and largely untested for the middle-class mindset(so far).
Gold is easy to buy but difficult to sell for a good price nowadays, also difficult to protect. We can’t trust ETF’s, who knows whether they are really holding gold? Also, in worst case scenarios, governments can confiscate gold, like it happened in America in the 1930′s.
I can’t buy large barrels of crude oil or tons of nickel or copper. Where do I keep them?
I think I’ll have to accept my fate.
As long as Governments around the world along with their central bank friends continue to print fake money, I have to keep my money in something solid, which for the reasons listed above, is real estate.
Dear Dr. Khan, in fact, the arguments I’ve put above should lead you to stay ‘away’ from property, especially buying one in Chennai (see the first chart above). Of course, if you can find a ‘reasonably’ priced property, it can be worthwhile investing in the same, but then the question is – What is ‘reasonable’?
An appropriate allocation between stocks (either directly or through mutual funds), gold, debt fund, and real estate can do well for you over the long term.
“So unless there’s a revolution to end this nexus, the mess in India’s real estate is not going to get cleaned up (and buyers like I and you will continue to wait for prices to fall, which won’t happen).”
From this I deduced that you favoured real estate.
(Moreover this revolution is not going to come, at least in the near future. And, the nature of the Indian people, is, that we tolerate too much. Looking back in our history, we NEVER had a revolution. The Chinese had many times in their history deposed their emperors due to incompetence. The French and the English and even the Russians had had their revolutions. Has such events EVER happened in 5000 years of our history?. The British conquered and maintained their rule largely with the help of Indian Soldiery!)
Indeed your are right Dr. Khan! The nexus needs to end if the common man has to get to his dream of buying a home at a price he can afford.
Here are my two cents,
From personnel experiences: I have been searching a land or a home in bangalore from past 1 years, and have seen many land and houses, the lesson i have learned in this past year is, the prices keep going up month after month, it does not matter weather anyone is buying or not. the owner just keeps increasing the prices. This is not the owners mistake, in totallity its the Buzz around that is making these owners hike the prizes , however the site or land is not getting sold, no one is buying them. For example i saw a B Khata land near K R Puram, which was in a OK area and very near to the Highway, the prize quoated to me was 1200/sq feet, in last 2 years the land prize have gone up by almost 100%, he is asking now 2K for the same land.
These politicians and company guys are killing us, looks like it would take me years to buy my house, because of all these now i am thinking if i should buy a house/land now or wait for another 15 years build corpus and then think about it.
Here is a rupee,
The rise in housing price is unrealistic but we have to for some reason believe that it is happening as the the rise in price is evident.
But the point is the change is price as mentioned price increased by 100 % in two years…..So unrealistic but evident….very much like a BUBBLE….well that is the way a bubble is.
Guys bubbles eventually burst, because it bursts it is called a bubble. Poltician Builder Nexus will have to give someday to the presure, well it has happened in 1991, politician and bussiness nexus gave up….Prices are unrealistic and i believe that they cannot be unrealistic for a long time frame. Well how can property rates in India be higher than the property prices of Developed countries like USA, Canada…etc.
BSE has grown @ 18 % since 1979…..Investment ka doosra naam stocks ( good ones offcourse)…..Defination of Good ones : Ha ha…Complex hain boss
Real estate worldwide is a huge money spinning nexus. What seems quiet and beautiful posh localities in the western world have their share of intrigue and bloodshed.
In India given urbanisation is a trend and the demand supply gap is so huge plus the nexus, its a heady cocktail. Dont drink pegs after pegs but atleast swallow 1 or 2
Hi!!! I don’t think you will get any loss is real estate market because everyone wants there own house and as as he population increases demand of property also increases.
In the longer term real estate prices have to fall in-line with the salary levels of people buying it. The prices of RE is a complex function. e.g. when Mumbai started to grow exponentially in 50′s / 60′s the rates went up and certain locations developed at the time as up-market/posh and their prices were quoted high as there were too few ‘very nice’ apartments available on a Malabar Hill and too many wanting to stay there. Extrapolate. Those who managed somehow bought in and reaped massive dividends.
It may seem there is ample land in India, but it is not about quantity, it is about quality (proximity to opportunities, amenities, infrastructure). I don’t mean that the prices today are reasonable or the politician-builder nexus does not exist, but there is some truth to the high prices in a country that is so populated. Besides in a real sense we don’t have so much land in India, we need land to produce food for a billion+ people, store water for them, provide roads, rails etc. After all we are 3 times smaller than China/US geographically and 4 times more populous than US!
@andy: there are many of us waiting for such time to come where the RE prizes fall in line with our salary, the 100 million question is would it ever come?
@vikrant: we are all in the same boat. But the fact that there is no correction or any signs of it tells me builders are able to sustain the prices in one way or the other. They are able to raise funds from inexplicable (to me) sources.
Amen, Andy
Thanks anyways for your invaluable inputs. Regards.
Dear Vishal,
My first investment in 1996 was in a plot, which I sold just before the 2008 crisis with a net gain of 10 X my investment amount. I sold it because, I felt that those rates are unsustainable. Although, it dipped during the crisis, but it is still on its way up. But, I have no regrets about selling.
My second major investment was in 2002 in a Independent house, the cost of the land has appreciated some 12 x times in 10Years. This property is for my end use, it doesn’t matter if it multiplies.
So my past experience with real estate has been plesant. Although, I still have capacity to buy / invest in real estate, I have the following reasons for not buying it:
The property price (what you pay for a flat) is much higher compared to what you pay in Developed Countries (if you could buy there). Even in places like Dubai, that has got excellent infrastructure, the cost of real estate is much cheaper than my place (chennai).
Atelast in Chennai (i think same holds good for most other cities), there is absolutely no infrastructure and ameneities to support such a huge grwoth in high rise buildings. It may come in future but it will take another 5 to 10 years and still you know we are not going to get all what we want as amenities. Even the climate in chenai is so harsh.
The developers take the investors for a ride by the time they handover the flats. What is promised is not delivered and you cannot fight against the developers (who go the time for it).
A friend of mine invested in Hiranandani and DLF projects in chennai worth 1Crore each and he is now being asked to pay almost 20% more than what is agreed referring to terms and conditions. The agreement is always one sided favouring developers. He has got no other option but to pay.
It is a nexus between banks, developers and politics. Of course, the political corrupt black money plays a big role in real estate.
If there is a crash, it will hurt many people. But, it may or may not happen in near future.
If you are a value investor, you will not invest in it. Well, you may look like fool to others who are investing in it!
Regards
Thanks Ajay for sharing your experience as an investor in real estate. I second your opinion.
I have decided to not invest in India as i can buy a better property in New Jersey, U.S.A. The Prices in Hyderabad has sky rocked and people in Hyd still eager to spend money in buying flats and plots. i was looking to buy a 2 bed room flat in Rahway, NJ, USA near train station for $110 K which is equal to 60 lakhs. I get a rent of $1800 per month and have to pay a tax and maintenance of about $800. So it is clearly a $1000 (55000 RS) profit. Where as in Hyd, for the same 60 lakhs I saw a place in Gachibowly, Hitec City, Hyd with problems of water, electricity. Builder says as the area is still under development, he expects the roads to be completed in 2 yrs which i doubt. This will fetch me a rent of about 15000 rupees and this shows the realy value of land in india. And the builder says it will double in few year !!!! i was what the F*** ??? People her are dumb to think that prices will go any higher.
I think people in India have no other options to buy in other countries and have to settle with this corrupt system. Indians deserve every single bit of this. i used to curse the politicians, but i was wrong. I think they are doing there duty of corruption. Its us who put this peopple in power and we need to shut up and bend over, so politicians can further Screw us.
Not sure if i need to be happy or sad to be an Indian.
Vishal: An interesting article, thanks.
It has been my view for a few years that the Real-Estate in India will continue to be expensive and rewarding as long as our governing systems don’t change. They are the sink for black money and also zoning/conversion/permit is a revenue earner for ‘neta’/'babu’, thus highly throttled. RE will not become more affordable as long as our politics is driven by black money.
But, there are other important fundamental reasons as well:
1. India is rapidly urbanizing. This is putting pressure on tier1,2 & 3 cities. This urbanization is expected to continue for next 20-30years, till India becomes largely a urban country with above 70% of its citizens living in urban areas.
2. Land supply is limited. As Mark twain said ‘buy land, they don’t make it anymore’. The population continues to grow at a rate of about 1.5% every year. i.e. 1.5% less per capita land availability every year! The population increase (thus demand) will be almost 3 times (i.e. 4.5%) in urban areas. i.e each year we’ll continue to see Urban area boundaries grow 5%. And majority of people will be pushed to outskirts (satellite towns) for reasons of affordability.
Result: You’ll get higher returns if you invested in outskirts of city, than in core city.
3. Transportation costs: In most developed countries of the west, transportation cost vis-a-vis per capita income, isn’t very high. In India, it is.
So, an average Indian can’t really live 50-70miles away and commute to work in his car. It’d kill him financially. His choice would be to use public transport, an infrastructure that is growing at a pace that it’ll take one more generation to build efficient system.
So, rush for land close to urban population centers, where commute won’t be long/tedius or expensive.
4. Alternative investments are risky: Indian stock markets are insider traded gambling dens. Reliable Mutual funds are the only way to go, but they normally manage between 12-15% returns. Fixed Deposits and liquid funds provide less than inflation adjusted returns.
5. Commercial Rental market will continue to be attractive. Especially in urban centers. In Bangalore you can get inflation adjusted 5-6% returns.
7. India is moving toward nuclear families, like in the west. Children living with parents is becoming more scarce, largely because of employment opportunities in larger cities or different city. This drives up demand for housing as well.
8. Lack of technology in buildings. In USA they moved to pre-fabricated housing kits some 40-50 years ago! In India, building construction is still about a lot of labor, and labor costs have shot up and will continue to shoot up, as more people move out of manual labor to blue/white collar jobs.
9. Lack of commodity. Worldwide the commodity prices are on rise. Steel, aluminium, Sand/glass etc. will continue to become more expensive as their availability reduces. This shoots up cost of constructed space. In past 3 years alone the sand cost in Bangalore has become double. It is not almost 13 times of what it was when I built my house in 2001. In fact, if one had bought sand in 2002-04, Today one would have seen same returns as one would’ve got from Real estate!!
Hi Harkol, these are very interesting and key viewpoints. Thanks for sharing! Regards.
It is completely true, that the real estate industry is a highly volatile one and is dependent on a number of circumstances, making it one of the most volatile industries.
There is no point in talking about the 1.1 billion population of India and expecting that all those people will need houses or land. More than 80% of those are poor people and earn hand to mouth. They will end up in existing overcrowded Govt schools and Hospitals. Govt is not looking into buying land/flats to accommodate them.
Those eligible for Bank loans are very few in our total population. They are also the same kind of people who have a sentimental value for ‘own house’, jealous, comparing relatives kind and will not care about Rent/Cost ratio.
The banks and Builders will hunt these eligible people down and enslave them for life. The bubble would grow forever and it will engulf more and more of these eligible, converting every paise they earn into ‘EMI’ and it will flow into the hands of our Politicians funding the next election and their personal assets. So do you want to get enslaved, Jealous, or compare you with your relatives??