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You are here: Home / Investing / Investing in Uncertain Times

Investing in Uncertain Times

July 26, 2019 | 9 Comments

…is almost always more profitable than investing when everything seems certain.

Investors, like most people going about their daily lives, don’t like doubts and uncertainties. So, they pay money and give up opportunities to avoid it.

Of course, it’s a good idea to avoid entirely what you can’t totally get your mind around, successful investing is largely about living through the uncertainties.

If you need reassurance, you’re giving up quite a bit to get it. Like high fees to experts who would predict the future (which you falsely believe as reassurance, which it isn’t), or expensive prices for stocks (because everyone knows their future is clear, which often isn’t).

On the other hand, if you can get in the habit of seeking out uncertainty, you’ll have developed a great instinct. Plus, in the long term, it’s highly profitable.

Mohnish Pabrai wrote in his brilliant book The Dhandho Investor –

Wall Street sometimes gets confused between risk and uncertainty, and you can profit handsomely from that confusion. The Street just hates uncertainty, and it demonstrates that hate by collapsing the quoted stock price of the underlying business. Here are a few scenarios that are likely to lead to a depressed stock price:

High risk, low uncertainty
High risk, high uncertainty
Low risk, high uncertainty

The fourth logical combination, low risk and low uncertainty, is loved by Wall Street, and stock prices of these securities sport some of the highest trading multiples. Avoid investing in these businesses. Of the three, the only one of interest to us connoisseurs of the fine art of Dhandho is the low-risk, high-uncertainty combination, which gives us our most sought after coin-toss odds. Heads, I win; tails, I don’t lose much!

While value investors are typically averse to taking high risks, that’s more a reflection of the price they’re willing to pay for any given investment than the types of situations they most often pursue, which are often fraught with uncertainty.

As businesses constantly evolve and change in response to challenges and opportunities, the lack of clarity around those changes. And the risks inherent in the potential outcomes can cause share prices to diverge widely from underlying business values.

The ability to recognize and capitalize upon that dynamic, and understand whether it’s temporary or permanent, is a key element of what sets the best investors apart.

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. harsh mirani says

    July 26, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    Habit of seeking out uncertainty, this sentence tells a lot about the approach one needs in the stock market.
    This article is the need of the hour. Wonderfully written. Thank you Vishal as always.

    Reply
  2. Mayank Bindra says

    July 26, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    Dear Vishal
    Truly Bang On ! with this piece.
    I admire your wit & wisdom. Low risk & high Uncertainity is THE dimension one needs to explore; as this is the space where fortunes are made.
    Regards

    Reply
  3. vinayak singh says

    July 26, 2019 at 11:58 pm

    Well as a student for me low risk and high uncertainty is a concept which will keep me in the market for a long period with good profit.Thanks for giving your knowledge in this uncertain period.

    Reply
  4. Mohan Lal Tejwani says

    July 27, 2019 at 11:46 am

    Low risk, high uncertainty. Is good for investor. Very well explained. Great. Thank you 🙏

    Reply
  5. Gaurav Sethi says

    July 27, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Hi Vishal,

    Thanks for your continuous efforts to upgrade knowledge of retail investors.

    You must have written this article seeing the current uncertainties. So whats your judgement on current times? In which bucket will you put this period into.

    Regards,

    Reply
  6. Furkan Ahmed says

    July 27, 2019 at 7:08 pm

    Very good article for value investor. Very helpful to take decision for investment in good undervalued stocks in high uncertainty environment.
    Thanks

    Reply
  7. Hitesh Hariani says

    July 31, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    Dear Sir, i have yet not invested any amount in markets, but i am a firm believer and practise value investing by Ben Graham Sir, but m confused as to how to recognize a stock from its balance sheet.
    I understand Cagr to be calculated for Earnings, Net profit, Sales turn. & Eps etc.
    But am confused as to is the time correct to invest in a stock which shows 10% cagr.
    How to check the Trap laid in balance sheet, becoz its always written as Reported Net Profit. Plus i have many more questions.
    Thanks & regards.
    Hitesh. H

    Reply
  8. milind says

    August 1, 2019 at 7:14 pm

    Very useful information.

    Reply
  9. pritam says

    August 1, 2019 at 7:15 pm

    Nice Written, Good Job.

    Reply

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