Archives for June 2018

The Paradox of Knowledge

June 28, 2018 | 8 Comments

Tourist: This is a dangerously steep road with a sharp bend. Why isn’t there a hazard sign for motorists to slow down?

Guide: We had a warning sign untill yesterday. But since accidents were rare, officials concluded that the spot isn’t that dangerous after all. So they removed the sign.

Tourist: Don’t you think the rarity of the accidents was precisely because of the warning sign?

Guide: Ugh..

Amused at the stupidity of the officials? That’s because it’s easy to spot the cause and effect relationship between ‘presence of warning sign’ and ‘frequency of accidents.’ You can test the hypothesis. Remove the warning sign and if too many cars start plunging down the valley, there we have it – a clear correlation between an action and its consequences.

High Quality Vs Low Price

June 25, 2018 | 13 Comments

If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys. ~ Old adage

If you remember the stock market crash of 2008, you also remember that it spared almost no stock. Companies, even the well-managed ones, lost half or more of their market capitalization in few months.

As an example, Pidilite (makers of Fevicol), which was one of those extremely well-managed businesses then, lost 55% between December 2007 (just before the crash started) and March 2009 (the bottom). Titan and HDFC Bank, two other stalwarts, lost 50% each. In short, the crash was like a bad dream for people even in these marquee stocks.

But for those who held on to their nerves, and to these stocks, the next decade was about to turn into a beautiful dream.

As an example, assume you were owning Pidilite near its peak in December 2007 and went into a deep sleep that continued till today (June 2018). Your return from the stock would have been around 1,000% (CAGR of 26%) over this decade!

How Much is Enough?

June 20, 2018 | 43 Comments

As I was talking with my daughter Kavya about the importance of making a living doing work she loves, and saving and investing well, she asked a question that trumped me. I was not prepared for it.

“How much is enough, Papa, to live a happy life?” she asked.

Kavya’s question reminded me of a recent post I did about my talk to a group of friends. The focus of my talk was on a few important questions I have tried to seek answers to at various stages of my life, and that have helped me tremendously in choosing a path that, when I look back at, I am glad I chose.

One of the questions that I talked about was – How much is enough?

[Read more…] about How Much is Enough?

The Turkey Illusion

June 13, 2018 | 7 Comments

Note: This post was originally published in the May 2018 issue of Value Investing Almanack (VIA). To read more such such insights on behavioural finance and other deep thoughts on value investing and business analysis, click here to subscribe to VIA.

When anyone asks me how I can best describe my experience in nearly forty years at sea, I merely say, uneventful. Of course there have been winter gales, and storms and fog and the like. But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident…of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.

Those were the words of E.J. Smith, captain of RMS Titanic, the ship that sank in the North Atlantic Ocean on 15 April 1912, after colliding with an iceberg during its maiden voyage, drowning 1500. Out of 2200 people onboard only 700 could be saved.

Since it has never happened in the past it’s unlikely to happen in the future. That’s perhaps the most dangerous assumption to make when the stakes are high. Smith’s mistake wasn’t in failing to predict the disaster. No one could have. His blunder was in not preparing for it.

On Titanic, there weren’t enough lifeboats for 2200 people. To add insult to an injury, the lifeboats actually had the capacity for more than 700 people but in confusion to get the ladies and the children first, many lifeboats were lowered partially filled. They hadn’t practiced the emergency evacuation protocols properly.

[Read more…] about The Turkey Illusion

Feynman’s Hack and the Map of the Cat

June 7, 2018 | 17 Comments

Richard Feynman, a celebrated scientist and the winner of Nobel prize in Theoretical Physics, was infamous for barging into any classroom (unrelated to Physics) in his university. He would then ask questions and make his fellow professors uncomfortable.

One day Feynman decided to attend a Biology class. Being aware of Feynman’s history of mischief, the Biology professor posed a condition to discourage him. Feynman could attend the class provided he would do all the assignments and write research papers like everyone else attending that class. To the professor’s surprise, Feynman agreed.

Feynman’s first assignment required him to study the nervous system of cats. So he went to the librarian in the biology section and asked her if she could give him a map of the cat.

“A map of the cat, sir?” she asked, horrified. “You mean a zoological chart!”