Safal Niveshak

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A Business is Not a Math Problem

Two Books. One Purpose. A Better Life.

Imagine the scene from the battlefield of Kurukshetra, where Arjuna stands frozen. He is not fearful, just confused. He looks at the faces on the other side, and sees family, teachers, and cousins. Suddenly, the whole battle doesn’t make sense anymore.

Here’s a warrior, born and trained to fight, and yet, when the moment comes, he lowers his bow.

And what does Krishna do? He doesn’t give him a five-point strategy like you find thrown around on LinkedIn, or even a “battlefield ROI calculator.” He doesn’t even talk about odds or probabilities.

Instead, Krishna tells Arjuna a story. Or rather, he reminds him of his story…about who he is, what his role is, and why he is there. And only once Arjuna understands that does he lift his bow again. Now, none of the facts have changed for Arjuna, but the meaning behind the facts have become clear to him.

I think about that moment a lot, especially when I see how most of us go about investing. We open the annual report, we skip to the numbers, and ask questions like, “What’s the profit growth?” “What’s the ROCE?” “What’s the free cash flow?” And we think, “Yes, this looks investable.”

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The Psychology of Investing #11: The Most Dangerous Story is the One You Tell Yourself

A quick announcement before I begin today’s post – 

My new book, Boundless, is now available for ordering!

After a wonderful response during the pre-order phase, I finally have the book in my hands and am shipping it out quickly. If you’d like to get your copy, click here to order now. You can also enjoy lower prices on multiple-copy orders.

Plus, I’m offering a special combo discount if you order Boundless along with my first book, The Sketchbook of Wisdom. Click here to order your set.

The Internet is brimming with resources that proclaim, “nearly everything you believed about investing is incorrect.” However, there are far fewer that aim to help you become a better investor by revealing that “much of what you think you know about yourself is inaccurate.” In this series of posts on the psychology of investing, I will take you through the journey of the biggest psychological flaws we suffer from that causes us to make dumb mistakes in investing. This series is part of a joint investor education initiative between Safal Niveshak and DSP Mutual Fund.

One of the most damaging patterns in investing isn’t what we believe about the market.

It’s what we believe about ourselves.

So, when we make a winning investment, we often quietly assume we’re a genius, yet when an idea goes sour, we believe we got unlucky and blame the market or some outside factor.

If you think this has applied to you sometime in the past, welcome to the world of Self-Attribution Bias. This is a common psychological pitfall in investing (and life) where we credit our successes to our skill and intelligence but blame failures on bad luck or others.

[Read more…] about The Psychology of Investing #11: The Most Dangerous Story is the One You Tell Yourself

Be the Calm

Two Books. One Purpose. A Better Life.

(Now at a Special Price. Ends today — 10th May 2025)

There are moments in life when everything feels fragile.

You wake up to news of conflict, war, tragedy, or chaos. Even if it’s happening far away, or on a screen, it seeps into your system. And suddenly, that spreadsheet of stocks you were reviewing just yesterday seems almost pointless.

What’s the use of a long-term plan when the world itself feels unsure?

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Letter to A Young Investor #11: The Warrior’s Way

Two Books. One Purpose. A Better Life.

(Now at a Special Price. Until 10th May 2025)

I am writing this series of letters on the art of investing, addressed to a young investor, with the aim to provide timeless wisdom and practical advice that helped me when I was starting out. My goal is to help young investors navigate the complexities of the financial world, avoid misinformation, and harness the power of compounding by starting early with the right principles and actions. This series is part of a joint investor education initiative between Safal Niveshak and DSP Mutual Fund.

Dear Young Investor,

I hope you are doing well, and that the lessons we’ve covered so far have been useful in guiding you through the early stages of your investing journey.

In the last letter, I wrote about something I believe sits at the very foundation of investing success: character. We looked at how humility, integrity, tenacity, self-awareness, and adaptability are what really shape an investor’s journey. And if you remember, I shared that character is mostly revealed not when things are easy, but when they’re falling apart.

[Read more…] about Letter to A Young Investor #11: The Warrior’s Way

Warren Buffett’s Timeless Wisdom: Notes from Berkshire’s 2025 AGM

Special Discount on My Books! (Until 10th May 2025)

Each year, Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual General Meeting in Omaha draws tens of thousands of shareholders, investors, and admirers from around the world, to hear the thoughts of Warren Buffett, whose calm, rational voice continues to cut through the noise of the financial world.

I attended the meeting last year, but this year I followed from afar. And I must admit, I missed being there in person. There’s something grounding about sitting in that arena, surrounded by people from every corner of the globe, all gathered to learn from a man whose clarity and humility have remain unmatched.

Anyways, the 2025 meeting carried a historical weight. Buffett, now 94, formally announced that he will step down as Berkshire’s CEO by the end of the year. While the transition of leadership to Greg Abel has been long anticipated, the announcement was like a passing of the torch. Buffett handled it with the humility and wit that has long characterised his approach.

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The Price of Freedom

A couple of quick announcements before I begin today’s post.

1. My new book, Boundless, is now available for ordering: After a wonderful response during the pre-order phase, I finally have the book in my hands and am shipping it out quickly. If you’d like to get your copy, click here to order now at a special discount (available till 10th May). Plus, I’m offering a special combo discount if you order Boundless along with my first book, The Sketchbook of Wisdom. Click here to order your set.

2. Relaunch of Value Investing Almanack: I have relaunched my premium newsletter, the Value Investing Almanack (VIA), which subscribers have called “…the best source in India on Value Investing, for both beginners and experts.” Click here to read more and subscribe to VIA at a special launch price (available only for the first 100 subscribers). Also, if you wish to check out the March 2025 VIA issue before deciding to rejoin, click here to download.

The Price of Freedom

There’s something uniquely tormenting about looking back at a decision you made years ago, one that you made with good intentions and maybe even a little excitement, and realising that today, you’d choose differently.

I’d been wrestling with that feeling a year ago, every time I entered an apartment I bought in 2018. It was my second apartment in the same building, just a floor below the first one where we lived. At the time, it seemed like a sensible and exciting step. Our kids were growing up, space was always tight in Mumbai’s famously matchbox-sized homes, and I imagined this second apartment as a seamless extension of our current one. It had a beautiful view too: a big garden and a hill in the distance, which is a rare sight of calm in this noisy and cluttered city.

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How to Survive the Wrong Turns in Life and Markets

A couple of quick announcements before I begin today’s post.

1. My new book, Boundless, is now available for ordering: After a wonderful response during the pre-order phase, I finally have the book in my hands and am shipping it out quickly. If you’d like to get your copy, click here to order now. You can also enjoy lower prices on multiple-copy orders. Plus, I’m offering a special combo discount if you order Boundless along with my first book, The Sketchbook of Wisdom. Click here to order your set.

2. Relaunch of Value Investing Almanack: I have relaunched my premium newsletter, the Value Investing Almanack (VIA), which subscribers have called “…the best source in India on Value Investing, for both beginners and experts.” Click here to read more and subscribe to VIA at a special launch price (available only for the first 100 subscribers). Also, if you wish to check out the March 2025 VIA issue before deciding to rejoin, click here to download.

How to Survive the Wrong Turns in Life and the Markets

It’s been a few years, but I still remember that day with unusual clarity.

A phone call came in the morning. A cousin of mine had met with an accident. I assumed he was in the hospital, down with a few injuries. That’s how the mind protects itself, by assuming the best.

But the next statement in the call took my breath away.

He didn’t make it.

He was just in his thirties. Riding to work on a regular weekday morning. Same road and same routine. But that day he took a wrong turn. He wasn’t wearing a helmet. Maybe he thought he didn’t need to. It wasn’t a long ride. It never is, until it is.

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The Stock Market’s Casino Problem

A couple of quick announcements before I begin today’s post.

1. My new book, Boundless, is now available for ordering: After a wonderful response during the pre-order phase, I finally have the book in my hands and am shipping it out quickly. If you’d like to get your copy, click here to order now. You can also enjoy lower prices on multiple-copy orders. Plus, I’m offering a special combo discount if you order Boundless along with my first book, The Sketchbook of Wisdom. Click here to order your set.

2. Relaunch of Value Investing Almanack: I have relaunched my premium newsletter, the Value Investing Almanack (VIA), which subscribers have called “…the best source in India on Value Investing, for both beginners and experts.” Click here to read more and subscribe to VIA at a special launch price (available only for the first 100 subscribers). Also, if you wish to check out the March 2025 VIA issue before deciding to rejoin, click here to download.

The Stock Market’s Casino Problem

Casinos have long known a simple truth: if you want people to gamble more, just add a subtle unpredictability. Just enough to keep people guessing. Make the lights flash. Add a few near-misses. Let them win once in a while so they feel like they’re on the edge of something big.

[Read more…] about The Stock Market’s Casino Problem

The Psychology of Investing #10: The Seductive Trap of Stories

A quick announcement before I begin today’s post – 

My new book, Boundless, is now available for ordering!

After a wonderful response during the pre-order phase, I finally have the book in my hands and am shipping it out quickly. If you’d like to get your copy, click here to order now. You can also enjoy lower prices on multiple-copy orders.

Plus, I’m offering a special combo discount if you order Boundless along with my first book, The Sketchbook of Wisdom. Click here to order your set.

The Internet is brimming with resources that proclaim, “nearly everything you believed about investing is incorrect.” However, there are far fewer that aim to help you become a better investor by revealing that “much of what you think you know about yourself is inaccurate.” In this series of posts on the psychology of investing, I will take you through the journey of the biggest psychological flaws we suffer from that causes us to make dumb mistakes in investing. This series is part of a joint investor education initiative between Safal Niveshak and DSP Mutual Fund.

The world is an uncertain place. A country’s economy grows at 7% and yet the stock market crashes. A company you’ve never heard of suddenly becomes a 20-bagger, and another you followed religiously disappears. Interest rates rise, but the markets rally. Crude oil falls, and inflation doesn’t move. Predictions fail, but still new ones are made with remarkable confidence.

Despite this randomness, and maybe because of this, we are constantly in search for order. We tell ourselves, “There must be a reason.” And when we can’t find one, we make one up.

[Read more…] about The Psychology of Investing #10: The Seductive Trap of Stories

The Investor’s Survival Guide to Spotting Bad Promoters (Before It’s Too Late)

A couple of quick announcements before I begin today’s post.

1. Masterclass – Thinking Clearly in A Market Crisis: I am hosting this Masterclass tomorrow, Saturday, 19th April 2025, 7 PM IST Onwards. The underlying idea is to help you deal with the messiness of market panics and crises, so you can protect your wealth, peace of mind, and long-term goals. I had 100 seats available for the Masterclass, and now just 20 remain. Click here to know more and join.

2. Relaunch of Value Investing Almanack: I have relaunched my premium newsletter, the Value Investing Almanack (VIA), which subscribers have called “…the best source in India on Value Investing, for both beginners and experts.” Click here to read more and subscribe to VIA at a special launch price (available only for the first 100 subscribers). Also, if you wish to check out the March 2025 VIA issue before deciding to rejoin, click here to download.

The Investor’s Guide to Spotting Bad Promoters Before It’s Too Late

We Indians love stories. From Ramayana to Reliance, we’re a country moved by narratives. And when it comes to investing, perhaps no story sells better than that of the visionary promoter — the larger-than-life figure who claims to be solving big problems and creating generational wealth for shareholders (don’t ask, which) in the process.

Now, I don’t mean here that all such stories that Indian promoters tell us are bad. Some are genuine. But most are just well-packaged, and a few are designed to do just one thing — take you for a ride. And when you peel back the layers of some of these stories, what you often find is not innovation or integrity, but obfuscation, opportunism, and in some cases, outright fraud.

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