Safal Niveshak

Wit. Wisdom. Value Investing.

Dealing with the Unknown Risks in Life and Investing

In the world of investing, risk is an ever-present companion. We spend countless hours analyzing data, studying market trends, and crafting meticulous strategies to mitigate known risks. Yet, as the legendary investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital, Howard Marks, once famously stated –

Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything.

This sentiment is a stark reminder that in the unpredictable world of investing, there are always unknown and unexpected risks lurking in the shadows.

Today, I share with two compelling stories told by Marks and another noted investor Joel Greenblatt, to shed light on the importance of acknowledging the existence of these hidden dangers and surprises, especially when you are sure that no such surprises exist.

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The Dark Room of Investing Success

Growing up in the 90s, and before digital cameras became common, one of my most precious possessions was a Kodak roll camera.

It was a simple box camera that came loaded with a 36-exposure roll of film (if I remember that correctly). When the roll was finished, the camera or the roll was handed to a photo studio for processing.

My friend’s father had a photo studio that was one of the best in town and where I got my photos developed. The studio contained a dark room (called ‘darkroom’) that no one was allowed to enter, which was typical of any photo studio those days.

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If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

The 45th Lesson

Life’s passing by too fast, or so it seems. I complete 45 years in my present state of existence today. That’s more than three-fifths of the average life expectancy of an Indian male.

Now, while spiritualists would want me to believe that I have existed from anadi (before the beginning of cosmos) and will exist till ananta (infinity), I see forty-five years as a good enough time to find some meaning in one’s life. At least, my rapidly greying hair and receding hairline help me realize that.

Now, while it amazes me that I’ve been around that long — I feel like I’ve barely begun (except when I look at the actuarial table).

[Read more…] about The 45th Lesson

The Charlie Munger Investing Manifesto

Close on the heels of The Charlie Munger Manifesto, which contains his most important rules for living a good life, and avoiding bad outcomes, here comes The Charlie Munger ‘Investing’ Manifesto, which lays down some of his most profound ideas on becoming a wiser investor.

Click here to download the manifesto in high resolution.

Click here to download the manifesto in high resolution.

Read it. Print it. Frame it. Face it. Remember it. Do it.

And if you find value in it, please share it.

* * *

You can never get enough of Charlie. And so, in his memory, and as part of The Inner Game podcast, I am launching a new series titled “The Munger Method” on his unforgettable speech titled “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment.”

In The Munger Method, I am going to try and dissect Charlie’s timeless wisdom from that speech and break it down into bite-sized, easy-to-understand podcasts.

Click here to watch the introduction episode.

You can also find this series and all past episodes of The Inner Game podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, and Amazon.

Hope you like them and find some value. Please let me know your feedback and/or suggestions for improvement. Thank you.

The Charlie Munger Manifesto

“We have a passion for keeping things simple,” Charlie Munger would often say.

And taking a leaf out of that, I have created The Charlie Munger Manifesto, which contains his most important rules for living a good life, and avoiding bad outcomes.

These rules are something you can reflect back on, like I have done, if you ever feel stuck in your life.

And if you believe in them, follow them, and stand for them, your life will be good.

Click here to download the manifesto in high resolution.

Click here to download the manifesto in high resolution.

Read it. Print it. Frame it. Face it. Remember it. Do it.

And if you find value in it, please share it.

Thank you.

Charlie Munger Lives on as All Great Philosophers Do

“The best armour of old age is a well spent life preceding it.” – Charlie Munger

It’s a natural human tendency to seek comfort in the belief that certain scenarios are beyond the realm of possibility. Whether it’s a health issue, or a personal tragedy, we often tell ourselves, “That could never happen.” We build mental fortresses around these notions, finding solace in the illusion of invincibility.

But life has a way of humbling us, showing us that no one is exempt from its capriciousness.

Today is one such day.

Charlie Munger, whom I have considered a hero in my life, has passed away at the age of 99, just 34 days from turning 100.

And Charlie is not just a hero for me on paper. He has been, and always will be a guiding force in my life, shaping my values, decisions, and aspirations. His wisdom has been my compass, and his principles are sort of my North Star.

As I mourn his passing, I also celebrate the incredible legacy he leaves behind. The impact he had on my life and the lives of countless others is a testament to his extraordinary character and the enduring power of his words.

This is a moment of grief for me, and it may take some time for acceptance to set it. And so, I will stop writing right away, and just leave you with these beautiful quotes from Charlie on how to be happy in life and survive a long time to tell the tale.

Over to Charlie.

If all you succeed in doing in life is getting rich by buying little pieces of paper, it’s a failed life. Life is more than being shrewd in wealth accumulation.

Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets – and can be lost in a heartbeat.

A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid: early death, a bad marriage etc.

Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?

Confucius said that real knowledge is knowing the extent of one’s ignorance. Aristotle and Socrates said the same thing. Is it a skill that can be taught or learned? It probably can, if you have enough of a stake riding on the outcome.

Some people are extraordinarily good at knowing the limits of their knowledge, because they have to be. Think of somebody who’s been a professional tightrope walker for 20 years – and has survived. He couldn’t survive as a tightrope walker for 20 years unless he knows exactly what he knows and what he doesn’t know. He’s worked so hard at it, because he knows if he gets it wrong he won’t survive. The survivors know.

Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.

Finally, as Charlie would have said, “I have nothing to add.”

Will miss you, Charlie! 🙁

The Most Important Decision You Will Ever Make

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: A Hand-Crafted Manual on the Pursuit of Wealth and Good Life

Buy your copy of the book Morgan Housel calls “a masterpiece.” It contains 50 timeless ideas – from Lord Krishna to Charlie Munger, Socrates to Warren Buffett, and Steve Jobs to Naval Ravikant – as they apply to our lives today. Click here to buy now.

After I had decided to quit my job in late 2010, we got to know that our second child was on the way. There was a momentary dilemma whether to go ahead with the decision to quit the job or not.

A new family member meant added responsibilities, that too in a period of high financial uncertainty. I had exhausted a large part of my savings to pay off my home loan to be able to quit that job, and now there would be an extra mouth to feed, apart from other expenses of a newborn.

“Quit your job!” was my wife Vidhi’s call. “We will see what happens only after we take this step. Worst, if nothing works out, we will sell our house and move back to a small town.”

[Read more…] about The Most Important Decision You Will Ever Make

It’s Either Hell Yeah or No

When it comes to thinking and decision making, Derek Sivers is one contemporary philosopher I look up to.

In 1998, Sivers was making a comfortable living as a full-time musician. He wanted to sell his music CDs online, but there was no way for a small time musician to sell online, so Sivers took matters into his hands and built a website to sell his CDs. Very soon his friends started requesting him to list their CDs on the website. That’s how CD Baby was born. Ten years later when he sold the company, it was doing $100 million in revenues. Sivers gave away the proceeds from the sale ($22 million) to a charitable trust.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.

The Illusion of Security in Investing

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: A Hand-Crafted Manual on the Pursuit of Wealth and Good Life

Buy your copy of the book Morgan Housel calls “a masterpiece.” It contains 50 timeless ideas – from Lord Krishna to Charlie Munger, Socrates to Warren Buffett, and Steve Jobs to Naval Ravikant – as they apply to our lives today. Click here to buy now.

In his thought-provoking book “Fooled by Randomness,” Nassim Taleb presents a compelling analogy that sheds light on how we perceive risk and reality. He writes –

First, reality delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security.

Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette – and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.

  • Why it matters: What Taleb has done is compare the infrequency of life’s critical risks to a revolver with hundreds, even thousands, of chambers, rather than the mere six of Russian roulette. His analogy encapsulates a significant problem in human psychology, and that is our tendency to underestimate risk due to its infrequent occurrence, which ultimately leads us to a dangerous false sense of security.

After 20 years in the stock market, and through a few cycles where I have sensed such false security myself and have suffered due to it, I can completely vouch for what Taleb has written.

You see, when we engage in activities or make decisions, like in the stock market, where the consequences of our decisions will be seen a few years or decades later, we often overlook the potential risks involved. This oversight is not because these risks are nonexistent, but because they are infrequent.

The rarity of a fatal outcome, like the rare chance of a bullet being fired from a gun with thousands of chambers, leads us to complacency. Like when it comes to investing, you may become overconfident after a few years of favorable market conditions, forgetting the possibility of a steep or prolonged market decline. Or when it comes to health, you might ignore the risks of a sedentary lifestyle or unhealthy diet because the consequences are not immediate.

The Invisible Barrel of Reality

Taleb also delves deeper into the human psyche. Unlike the clear and present danger in a game of Russian roulette, where the risks are obvious and quantifiable, real-life risks are often hidden or misunderstood.

We might be engaging in risky behaviors without even realizing it, thinking we are playing a “low risk” game. This lack of awareness is a critical factor in many of the poor decisions made in various fields, from finance to personal health.

Now, our understanding of probability plays a significant role in how we perceive risk. We are notoriously bad at assessing probabilities, especially when it comes to rare events. We either overestimate the likelihood of extremely rare events like plane crashes, or underestimate more common but less sensational risks, like market crashes or even car accidents. This miscalculation is compounded by the fact that our perception of risk is heavily influenced by personal experiences and emotions, rather than objective analysis.

The Illusion of Control

Another factor contributing to the false sense of security is the illusion of control. We tend to believe we have more control over events than we actually do. This belief leads to an underestimation of risk.

For example, a stock market trader or investor might think his skill is the main reason for his success in the stock market, ignoring the role of luck and external factors. Similarly, someone might believe their good health is solely due to their lifestyle choices, discounting the influence of genetics and environment.

History is replete with examples where a false sense of security led to disastrous outcomes. The financial crises of the past few decades, including the 2008 global financial crisis, serve as stark reminders of what can happen when risks are underestimated.

In these scenarios, what was perceived as a low-risk environment turned out to be a game of Russian roulette with dire consequences.

Applying Taleb’s Insights

To apply Taleb’s insights in our lives and investing, the first step for us is to acknowledge and accept our tendency to underestimate risk.

We should also strive to improve our understanding of probabilities and be aware of our psychological biases. This awareness can help us make better decisions that may lead us to better long term outcomes.

The key takeaway from Taleb’s analogy is the importance of acknowledging and preparing for the improbable. Just because a risk is infrequent does not mean it is nonexistent.

By recognizing the potential dangers in our decisions and actions, no matter how unlikely they seem, we can better prepare for the uncertainties of life.

This preparation does not mean living in fear but rather embracing the unknown with a balanced perspective.

In doing so, we can navigate the complexities of the world of investing or otherwise with a more realistic and prudent approach, enhancing our ability to make informed decisions and, ultimately, leading a more resilient and fulfilling life.

I recently announced admission to the January 2024 batch of my most comprehensive classroom course in Value Investing titled – Value Investing Blueprint.

This residential course is scheduled to be held from 11th to 14th January 2024, at the campus of Pune-based FLAME University. The last date to apply is 10th December, 2023.

Click here to read more and apply if you are interested in joining this course.

Since it’s a classroom course, seats are limited.

The course will take you through the entire process of practicing value investing to identify long term wealth creating stocks. This includes helping you:

  • Create the right value investing mindset and build a behavioural framework to avoid biases and create the right investment thought process.
  • Assess business quality – separating good from gruesome
  • Analyze financial statements to find well-performing businesses
  • Calculate intrinsic valuations using various methods
  • Identify competitive moats and whether they are sustainable
  • Build a portfolio of sound, wealth-creating businesses

Click here to read more and apply if you are interested in joining this course.

I have started work on a series of short videos – titled The Inner Game – to share my thoughts around investing, decision making, learning, and just the practice of trying to live a good life. You can watch them on my YouTube channel, including these recent ones –

You can also find these and all past sessions on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, and Amazon.

Hope you like these and find some value. Please let me know your feedback and/or suggestions for improvement. Thank you.

That’s about it from me for today.

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Stay safe.

Regards, Vishal

The Sketchbook of Wisdom: A Hand-Crafted Manual on the Pursuit of Wealth and Good Life

Buy your copy of the book Morgan Housel calls “a masterpiece.” It contains 50 timeless ideas – from Lord Krishna to Charlie Munger, Socrates to Warren Buffett, and Steve Jobs to Naval Ravikant – as they apply to our lives today. Click here to buy now.

The Dunbar’s Number of Investing

Man, they say is a social animal. Leave him alone on an Island, and he will not last long even if he has the amenities needed for survival. I am not sure if any social scientist has ever done such an experiment, but it is highly unlikely that many people can survive in an isolated environment. Maybe that is the reason Hollywood makes so many movies on this theme.

In fact, one of my favourites is one such movie titled ‘Cast Away.’ This film depicts a FedEx employee stranded on an uninhabited island after his plane crashes in the South Pacific and his attempts to survive on the island using remnants of his plane’s cargo.

This content is reserved for Mastermind Members. To access, please login below with your membership credentials.

If you are not a member, please consider joining the Mastermind Membership to access my most comprehensive value investing course, plus practical, time-tested ideas in investing, human behaviour, business analysis, and decision making, and get onto the path of becoming a better version of yourself.