Anshul Khare

How to Be A Fortunate Investor

April 8, 2019 | 22 Comments

If you think I am going to talk about some mystical way to increase your luck in stock market, then you’ll be disappointed. Being fortunate in life and in investing is largely about increasing your odds of success. And how do you increase your odds?

“Study the principles of sound investing and work hard to implement those principles,” you might say. But is that sufficient? Studying, reading and working hard are all necessarily conditions for being successful in the stock market, however they are not sufficient. You need one more thing.

Let’s turn to world’s greatest investor to give us some clue. In his 1982 letter to investors, talking about two of his managers Phil Liesche and Ben Rosner, Warren Buffett wrote –

Fighting the Last War

November 12, 2018 | 1 Comment

Note: This post was originally published in the November 2017 issue of our premium newsletter – Value Investing Almanack (VIA). To read more such posts and other deep thoughts on value investing, business analysis and behavioral finance, click here to subscribe to VIA.

In Safal Niveshak’s Value Investing workshops, when we discuss the mental biases, we show the following video to our participants.

I would suggest that you pause here and watch this video before reading further.

It’s a test of your awareness so don’t cheat 🙂 [Read more…] about Fighting the Last War

On Stories We Tell

September 27, 2018 | 6 Comments

For my twin toddlers, the instant attention-grabbing words are — Once upon a time. They drop everything and dash to whoever uttered those words.

It’s my only weapon to break their fights and tantrums. But once those words slip out then there is no escape.

“Tell me the story, Papa. Please tell me the story.” To their relentless prodding, I give in every time.

It doesn’t matter how interesting or boring the story is. Neither does it matter if I am telling them the same narrative for the hundredth time. Fed up they’re not. Any pause to catch my breath is cut short by an impatient stare demanding an exciting twist in the tale. Their eyes widen as if it’s not the ears but eyes they’re listening with.

Kids are suckers for stories. So are adults. Aren’t we?

The content may change but the fascination for stories is deeply ingrained trait that evolution has bestowed on the human brain.
[Read more…] about On Stories We Tell

A Hidden Cost Called Rented Suit Liability

August 21, 2018 | 11 Comments

Value Investing Workshop in Bangalore (9th Sept), Chennai (23rd Sept), Mumbai (30th Sept). Click here to register now. Few seats remain!

Lloyd’s of London, a 300-year-old insurance body, collects more than 33 billion pounds in gross premium every year. Its history goes back to the 17th century.

In 1906, when a major earthquake destroyed more than 80 percent of the Californian city of San Francisco, Lloyd paid out all the policyholder claims, irrespective of the terms of their policies. That cemented Lloyd’s reputation in the American market.

However, in the 1990s, this insurance behemoth was brought to its knees by a risk that had gone unnoticed for decades. After California earthquake episode, Lloyd started underwriting wide-ranging general liability cover to US businesses, including asbestos manufacturers.

Thousands of employees who had worked in asbestos plants were diagnosed with asbestosis, a deadly lung disease, twenty years later. These workers claimed the compensation from their former employer in 1990s. The employer, in turn, claimed it to the insurance companies like Lloyd who wrote the policy in the 1960s. Lloyd had failed to understand the nature of future risk and thus faced near bankruptcy.

Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect

August 13, 2018 | 10 Comments

Value Investing Workshop in Bangalore (9th Sept), Chennai (23rd Sept), Mumbai (30th Sept). Click here to register now. Few seats remain!

Why were Warren Buffett and his creation, Berkshire Hathaway, so unusually successful?

In 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting, someone asked the above question from Charlie Munger. He replied –

If that success in investment isn’t the best in the history of the investment world, it’s certainly in the top five. It’s a lollapalooza.

Lollapalooza in the conventional sense means something outstanding of its kind. A person, a thing or an event that is particularly impressive, or extraordinarily attractive. But being multidisciplinary learners, we shouldn’t be satisfied with the conventional definitions, should we? Moreover, Charlie Munger doesn’t use lollapalooza just for its dictionary meaning.

Here’s the definition of Lollapalooza taken from the book Poor Charlie’s Almanack –

Lollapalooza is, as personified by Charles Munger, the critical mass obtained via a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multidisciplinary mental models.

When Charlie Munger uses the word lollapalooza, he often attaches the word “effects” (as in “lollapalooza effects”) which means that multiple factors are acting together in ways that are feeding back on each other. [Read more…] about Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect