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What to do with Opto Circuits 2.0

I have written three posts on Opto Circuits (OCIL) so far – two in June 2012, followed by one in August.

The reason for the first post was requests from a lot of readers who wanted me to research the company.

The second post was my research report on OCIL.

The reason for the third post was requests from a lot of readers who were worried after seeing a 10% fall in the stock from the time I wrote my research on the company.

Now, I’m writing a fourth post on the OCIL…after requests from a lot of readers who want my view on the stock after it has fallen 52% since my second post and 46% since the third one.

“Too much of the past Vishal,” you might be thinking. “Tell me straight what I must do with Opto Circuits. I’m already sitting on a big loss!”

Before I move ahead, let me quote a long-time tribesman, Mansoor who wrote in a testimonial for my Art of Investing Workshop – “Vishal will make every effort to make you understand about investing and he will not give you so-called tips even if you pay him.”

So, to reiterate, even if you pay me to seek my view on OCIL, I won’t give you the same.

Not that I am a sadist, it’s just that buying OCIL was your sole responsibility, and thus you must find out what you must do with it now.

But here are some lessons that I have learned from a few “losers” like OCIL I personally faced in the past.

These lessons have served me very well ever since I learned them. I hope these serve you well, as you decide on your holding of OCIL and any such stock.

4 lessons from “losers” like Opto Circuits

1. Past is not future
The first post I did on OCIL in June 2012 was – Opto Circuits, and Power of Story in Investing.

A lot of readers had written to me then, seeking my view on the company. I was surprised being inundated by requests on this one company.

A lot of the requests were based on “stories” like…

  • OCIL’s sales have grown at a great rate pace in the past 10 years. If they can achieve this in the future, wouldn’t this be great?
  • OCIL has the best operating margins in the industry, and these are expected to improve by a couple of percentage points in the next year. How will these aid profits?
  • OCIL earns amazing return on equity, which has averaged 40% over the past 10 years. Isn’t this an amazing number?
  • OCIL’s stock has fallen 33% from its 52-week high price…so isn’t this a value buy?
  • OCIL has been advised as a ‘Buy’ by a brokerage, which expects it to rise 65% over the next one year. This is a great opportunity, isn’t it?
  • OCIL has been categorized among India’s fastest growing companies by a leading business magazine. Wow, what a business!

In other words, in most cases, investors were reading through a beautifully-woven story just by looking at OCIL’s past.

Even I gave OCIL’s past a benefit of doubt, despite knowing that the balance sheet was not in a really good shape.

As an analyst, I’ve made such a mistake several times in the past – duly aided by the beauty of an excel sheet that has enabled me to just drag the mouse and predict the future in few clicks!

In OCIL’s case, I adjusted the company’s valuations for my concerns on the balance sheet front…but then as Munger often says, “When you mix raisins with turds, they are still turds.”

Drawing patterns from the past to predict the future can be dangerous to your investments, as OCIL has helped us learn.

2. Hindsight is not foresight
Now this is one quality that has characterized my investing life – the quality of predicting in hindsight!

So, in 2009, it was obvious to me that financial institutions and financial markets were about to collapse in 2008!

Well, it was not obvious to me, and it was probably not obvious to you, either.

Hindsight error leads us to think that we could have seen in foresight what we see only in hindsight. And it makes us overconfident in our certainty about what’s going to happen.

As I look at OCIL, I curse myself saying – “Damn Vishal, you did see the working capital and other risks in the company’s balance sheet! Still your valuations justified the stock as attractive? How could you…?”

Anyways, I have been practicing a way to get over the hindsight bias, only that I haven’t perfected it as yet.

When I hear in my mind a voice that says that a stock is sure to rise or plunge – after I’ve done my research – I activate my “noise-cancelling” device rather than call my broker ad place the order.

This device is triggered in the last stage of my investing checklist process, and remains on for a week or two weeks…


This “device” has worked well for me in 8 out of 10 times over the past few years (not in OCIL’s case though, as I was not personally investing in the stock!), and has helped me make better investment decisions by avoiding my internal noise maker.

In order to avoid falling for “stories” like OCIL in the future, you might wish to install such a device in your mind as well.

3. Balance sheet, balance sheet, balance sheet
I have talked about the importance of taking the balance sheet seriously several times in the past. Only that I did not take my own medicine in case of OCIL. :-(

Just because the stock’s intrinsic value was slightly higher than the stock price, I thought if I had money I would buy the stock.

The sad part is a few tribesmen took me seriously here, and bought the stock thinking this was my “recommendation” for them…while under-estimating my concerns on the balance sheet!

Now, concerns on the balance sheet have overpowered investors’ mind because the stock price has crashed.

If the stock had risen instead, the balance sheet would have been forgotten and your trust in my analysis skills would have increased.

Good for you that you made a loss on OCIL, for this would lead you to trust the balance sheet more than me in the future. :-)

4. All valuations are wrong
Some readers have written to me asking whether my calculation of OCIL’s intrinsic value has changed ever since I calculated it first in June 2012?

My answer is – now it’s not about the change in my intrinsic value estimates…but about my belief in any intrinsic value for OCIL and in the company’s future cash flows…that has been shaken.

With OCIL management remaining silent on the concerns surrounding the company (see a video here), I will not trust them even if they come out of their closets one day and say, “Hey, we are clean…and are willing to buy back our shares to show our faith in the company.”

Several companies have taken buy-back measures in the past to tide over the crash in their stock prices, and even OCIL my walk that track.

In case that happens, it will be important to ask two questions to the management:

  1. Whose cash are you using to buy back given that you already owe a good amount of debt?
  2. How do you value your own shares given so much uncertainty surrounding your business?

Coming back to the question on OCIL’s intrinsic value, well I won’t venture out to calculate this anymore for I do not know the real worth of the company’s cash flows.

What is more, as Aswath Damodaran says…

  • All valuations are biased, and
  • Most valuations (even good ones) are wrong

…I won’t venture out to calculate OCIL’s valuations as of now given that my estimates will be biased (I am disturbed by the management’s silence) and my estimates will be wrong (I will be projecting the cash flows in complete dark).

Made a mistake? Now what?
In investing or in life, it’s easy to know that you made a mistake. What is difficult is to answer the question – Now what?

My suggestion, with respect to your investing mistakes is – Write down why you made this mistake for that will help you find the solution with some clarity.

Your reason for making the mistake could be any of these…

  • I was greedy. I wanted to make quick money, and thus let my greed overcome my better judgment and make an unwise investment.
  • I was lazy. I didn’t do my homework, didn’t look at the balance sheet, didn’t understand the value of the business, and simply bought because someone wrote about it, or I wanted to speculate on it.
  • I did what others did. Everyone was talking about and buying OCIL, and everyone was looking to make money. So even I bought, because I hate being left out.

But what to do with OCIL?
If there’s one question that investors have asked themselves over and over again, and many investors in OCIL must be asking this question now, it is– “If only I had acted differently? If only, if only, if only!”

You can’t go back into the past to alter your actions. You can only take lessons from them.

In situations like OCIL, it’s good to follow your mother’s sound advice, “Don’t cry over spilled milk.”

Stop focusing on blame and regret and yesterday and start thinking about today and tomorrow.

Don’t let regret lead you to hold on to the stock if rationality suggests that you must sell it.

Instead, consider getting rid of the stock and use the money immediately to buy into better opportunity.

You’ll feel the pain of regret today. But you’ll feel the joy of pride next April when the realized losses turn into tax deductions.

So, if you have lost 50%, or even more, of your investment in OCIL, be happy and move on…for you have learned some important lessons.

If you can engrave these lessons in your memory, this 50% loss in OCIL would save you many more such losses later because these will make you a better investor.

Over my investing life, I’ve learned that you need to analyze your mistakes, identify the reasons the mistakes were made, and commit to memory the lessons that will prevent you from making additional, and bigger, investment mistakes in the future.

Then, to reiterate what Prof. Sanjay Bakshi shared with me…

  • There are no mistakes, only lessons.
  • Learning does not end.

Before I close…
Before I end this long and boring post, let me share one personal experience I’ve had with my investing mistakes, and how I’m trying to minimize them.

It has often happened that while I knew I made investment mistakes, and vowed not to repeat them, I had the vaguest sense of what those mistakes were, or, more important, why I made them.

Why did I think and feel and behave as I did? Why did I act in a way that today, in hindsight, seems so obviously stupid?

Only by understanding the answers to these questions can I improve my financial future.

The way to understand the answers is to maintain an investing diary – where you must record your thoughts in real-time that go into your investment decisions.

The diary will serve you very well as it would help you cross reference your decisions and your reasons with the actual outcomes.

Maintaining such a diary will also help you understand when you were lucky and when your genuine skill helped you.

And like me, you can call it – Diary of a Dumb Investor. :-)

Whatsay?

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Comments

  1. Vishal, Just 1/2 an hour back i sold all my shares in opto circuit.i.e. before i saw this article. Yes u are right. No sense crying over spilled milk. I guessed it is better to book loss and utilise the money in some other stock or just hold.Let us not forget that there were times when we have also booked profit in opto a few years back.

  2. Investor23 says:

    Vishal: It seems the SafalNiveshak site has been redesigned and in this redesign, the link to “forums” is lost. Pl. enlighten where we can see it, or do you not plan to have it? Thanks.

  3. Yes lessons to be learnt for sure.
    I bought at around 130 and sold around 88 or so.
    This is part of the game.
    We mostly hear of profits and phenomenal profits that xyz made not realising that the losses the xyz made will probably never be mentioned by him or her and even if they mention such items will not make a good story (and therefore unlikely to reach our ears through the media).

    • Indeed that’s true, Sudhir!

      We never see a lottery commercial showing a man muttering “lost again” as he tears his ticket in disgust! What we always see are smiling winners holding giant cheques. This is also true in investing. But losses must not disappoint an investor to freeze in inaction. Regards.

  4. Another impressive articulation of your thoughts Vishal!

    As Sudhir has rightly mentioned, we always here stories of XYZ making phenomenal returns and never hear of his losses. You are doing a great job in helping us identify that losses are part of investing, and we must take lessons from them instead of ruing over them.

    The Munger quote you mention above is classic :-)

    I am now enjoying my loss in Opto for the lessons I’ve learned. Thanks for helping me through this. Cheers!

  5. Hi Vishal,

    Have been following you and trying to learn!! Let me on the outset commend the effort you take in educating the masses. I quite enjoy reading your posts!

    I was wondering, are there any workshops planned in Mumbai. Would love to attend one!

    Also, I was wondering, how does one select a good stock. I have used screeners only briefly. And was wondering, are there any key ratios that should be put in these screeners to pick out undervalued stock? Or does one have to keep looking through which might take an eternity. Or is there any advise like to look at the second and third placed companies in an industry?

    Thanks a lot!!! Happy to be a tribesman and eagerly looking forward to the 7th lesson on valuations (specially DCF)

    Thanks,
    Umang

  6. Dear Vishal, I had cashed out after multiplying my money almost 10 times in Opto before the 2008 crash. Then I bought it again last year, assuming the past performance to repeat (as you rightly wrote above). Then I held on to it assuming that it was just a small correction, and because I had complete faith in my IV calculation.

    Also, like you, even I was worried about the deteriorating balance sheet. But I ignored that, thanks to Endowment bias that I occasionally suffer from. I sold off all my holding in the stock just last week, at an almost 50% loss.

    I vouch for the idea that you have discussed in the article above, and as Sudhir has mentioned in his comment. While I was happy to share with the world my gains in Opto, I was shy of doing it when I made a mistake.

    Not any more! Your post has given me immense confidence to accept my mistakes, get over them and learn from them so as to not make similar mistakes in the future.

    I will start with my investing diary soon, and like you said, I will name it “Diary of a Dumb Investor”. ;-)

    Thanks for helping us readers with your gems, day after day! Have a great life. God bless you.

  7. Dear Vishal,
    I bought it a very long time back in 2012 and sold it in late 20102 with quite a loss which was hard to digest, but as u rightly said, every mistake is a lesson learnt.The lesson i learnt is that too much of equity dilution in the past is something a value investor has to be wary about.

  8. Someone shared this recent video on Opto, which is disheartening…and shows the management in really bad light!

  9. R.K.Chandrashekar says:

    Vishal
    Opto circuits are in the business of making life saving devices but the company itself needs life support!!!
    While i write this post, i notice that the price has moved after it was confirmed by the mgmt that no promoters shares have been pledged- some comfort!! We all make mistakes, but what is more important is to acknowledge and learn from it-where we went wrong and move on. Very often we blindly buy a stock based on the fundamentals, hype, momentum, etc without assessing our own risk profile and why we bought it in the first place. Now if you are risk averse, looking for an investment to fund a commitment 10/15/20 years down the line- think children’s marriage/education or monthly pension- would you bet on Opto, a sulzon, or rather an HDFC, Asian Paints, Castrol,. Well you have the answers!!

  10. Vishal,

    I think you still haven’t figured out the key mistakes.Please read my posts carefully again here.

    hopefully you should be able to gain something from them.

    Thanks,
    Rakesh.

    • Thanks Rakesh. I think you are pointing out to the mistake of not understanding a company before buying its stock. Right?

      Well, I did not cover that here as I’ve already said this a lot of times in the past, with or without specific to OCIL.

      Anyways, thanks for reminding the key mistake – buying a stock just because its price has fallen to lows doesn’t make it an opportunity, and especially when one does not understand the company’s business. Regards.

      • Yes that’s correct, that is what Buffet calls the circle of competence. We can neither make big gains or avoid big losses in stocks if we don’t follow this principle and according to me this is the single most important filter for successful investing.

        Even if opto circuits tripled since you have recommended, I would still be posting the same comments as in my previous post.

        As everyone, I have learned this lesson in a hard way :)

        • 100% agree with you on this, Rakesh. In fact, the size of an investor’s circle of competence isn’t as important as clearly defining the borders.

          Then, remaining within the circle adds a layer to the margin of safety.

  11. There are no mistake only lessons!!

  12. Hi Vishal,
    Once again a great post with lots to learn. I wanna share my small experience with opto circuits which might interest you. As i read your analysis and then second post on opto 3-4 months back, I was convinced that its a good company selling cheap. I bought stocks a couple of months back, yet I continued my study on the company. While reading financial shenanigans(recommended on safal niveshak) and another book, I felt a little uncomfortable with their acquisition growth as I couldnt understand those deals. Hence I sold all stocks on a marginal loss and accepted my mistake of buying it without complete knowledge. As I saw this mail, I smiled and felt a bit satisfied on my decision in retrospect. It might have gone other way, but still buying without conviction would have given me that bit of uncomfort. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

    Vikas Kukreja

  13. I never bought this stock but I have known about this company since 2008.By knowing,I mean,I read various articles about the company’s business and heard many arguments about its bright future prospects.I also know a little bit of how to read a balance sheet and basic terms like EPS,CAGR etc.

    So perhaps I can share my experience of why I avoided this company. since 2008.

    1.This company doesn’t fall into my circle of competence.Its too difficult to understand about their products and their future market demand.For this solereason I could skip a potential 10 bagger like Opto and invest in something boring and understandable like cement industry where there is no scope for extraordinary returns.

    2.A lot of newspapers and magazines carry positive articles about this company, which suggests that everyone knows about its bright prospects .The share is always trading at premium suggests that everyone is bullish on this company.So even if the bullishness is vindicated I can make only a little money as I am following the crowd, and there is higher probability of the opposite scenario happening in which case I could lose lot of money when people start dumping the stock.I think this is what Howard Marks was talking about in his latest book.

    3.They are growing at a stupendous rate for past 10 years through mergers and acquisitions of overseas companies.My experience tells me that such a M&A success rate is rarely seen in business world.Most of them often fail or give mediocre results.For all the success I could seen only 2 possible reasons.a) they should have extraordinary financial and management capability to achieve such a feat. or b) their accounts should be cooked.Since I could not find any evidence for a. I concluded b. would be the probable reason.

    4. I don’t know how to value a company using IV different formulas and I don’t have any intention of learning them in the future as they are useless.That’s only my opinion :).So I never bothered to calculate them for Opto and compare it to the share price.If I have done that I would be tempted to buy the stock on price falls and would be sitting on losses.

    Even if Opto was a ten bagger since 2008,I would still have no regrets in missing it because I am more confident in my process,than the money I fail to make on any company that I knew for a long time.

  14. Well accept it,this is faulty try from your side to gain your reader sympathy.
    I am sure if this stock had gained,you would hve given the example of your stock picking ability,well winning on both side,praise on gain,sympathy on loss.What has happened to your warren buffet lecture???? giving up on a company with just 1 or 2 quater result?.

    • Thanks for your feedback, Abhishek!

      I don’t seek sympathy, and neither do I want to manipulate my reader’s thought process.

      As for OCIL, I have not tracked the company’s results to arrive at the latest view…it’s just that the conditions in which I made my original report do not stand true as of now, and thus my latest view.

      Yes, I realize I made a mistake in my original analysis. But I don’t want to become Mark Twain’s cat that never sat again on a stove after being burned. There are a lot of mistakes that I’ve repeated.

      If you, as my reader, can learn from my mistake without being sympathetic of me, my job will be done.

      Even Buffett has said it so often, “If we lose confidence or conditions change, we sell. If we were wrong, we sell.”

      Now if my reader wants to crucify me for this mistake or learns from it, it’s purely his/her choice.

  15. Reni George says:

    Hi Vishal
    Good Afternoon to you

    I would like to sing a hindi song which would be apt for this situation,the song is from film “Guide”
    ‘Kya se kya ho gaya,bewafa tere pyar mein,chaha kya,kya mila bewafa tere pyar mein
    Chalon suhana bharamh to toota,mana kya husn kya hai’.

    These words truly depict the nature of investors,we fall in love with our researched stock,start our expectation,calculate the profit that is going to be generated in next couple of years,start making plans,and one day we come to know that our beautiful lady,was actually a witch hiding behind some craftily created make-up(Read-Balance Sheet).
    I was guilty of the same, i researched a stock found it extremely beautiful stock,with a beautiful balance sheet,with a cheap price,not understanding that it was a value trap,but when i dug deeper,had talk with some employees of the company and then i got the real picture,and dumped the stock tough i lost some money on that,and then shifted the balance to one of good dividend yielding stock.

    What i learnt: Go deeper when you find the beauty to be too true or flattering(Balance Sheet)
    sleep over your decision for a considerable time of time,even if you think its best,time will let slowly rationality creep in your mind.

    So will i revisit the company,not at all, when the management itself is not forthcoming on its blunders.Its like when you go outside to eat at a eatery joint,the first time you may order the food,but if you do not like the food and the service,would you go back to the eatery again.No not at all.

    By the way will be missing the forum….. here i could empty my hearts…try to created some page separate from this site,where collective information could b loaded and analysed.

    Thanks and Regards
    Happy Investing

    Reni George

  16. Hi Vishal,

    May I suggest, starting a forum using google-groups service.

  17. L S Chauhan says:

    Dear Vishal
    1. I am a novice and can’t match skills of experienced tribesmen. So what follows may please be taken as my effort to understand this stock. Till you give me further lessons in understanding a bal sheet, I may continue coming up with silly questions which may be obvious to everyone else.
    2. From all that I have read about OCIL, the concerns expressed about the Company are as follows:-
    (a) It has a debt of approx Rs 1000 Cr
    (b) Its debtor cycle is close to 6 months, leading to increase in working cap cycle and poor cash flows.
    3. Over next four years OCIL has to re-pay approx Rs 400 Cr worth of loans which mathematically works out to Rs100 Cr per year. With PAT of approx Rs 515 Cr in FY 12(excluding one-time tax benefit of Rs 57 Cr) and annual growth rate of 15-20%, should this be a problem ?
    4. Long debtor cycle implies ‘delayed payments’ which will be reflected after two quarters. Why should it matter so much except for the fact that OCIL has to raise debt to meet working capital requirements (if it has to) and thereby incur more interest payment.
    5. If OCIL does not lose its growth momentum (till now there is no evidence that it has), there should be no reason to worry. High growth has been the reason for investor’s faith in this stock so far. Now that new (valid)concerns have arisen, should we lose sight of why we invested in this stock in the first place ? Can some one please put a figure to, how finance cost is out-stripping the PAT in the case of this Company.
    6. Market has battered OCIL out of shape. Could it be that market is being unreasonably harsh?

    I would be grateful if the experienced tribesmen can enlighten me.
    Regards

    • Dear Mr. Chauhan, thanks for your views. Given the analysis and thoughts you have shared above, you are not a novice investor for sure. :-)

      In my belief, the biggest concern that has cropped up with respect to OCIL is the management’s silence for such a long time on all concerns surrounding the company, and its rejection of credit rating it did not like and then shopping for a better one.

      The balance sheet is an issue for sure, largely due to working capital constraints and goodwill writeoffs. But the way the management is handling the issue is a concern for minority shareholders.

      I believed the management when I wrote about them first, but the way they have handled the situation makes me concerned.

      As for Mr. Market, yes it is unreasonably harsh in such situations…and thus the choice needs to be made individually whether one wants to have his/her money in something where things can get even murkier (again give the management’s silence).

      Views from other tribesmen are welcome. Regards.

      • L S Chauhan says:

        Dear Vishal

        1. I wish to invite your comments on a specific issue. Can you please put a figure to, how finance cost is out-stripping the PAT in the case of this Company. I tried going through Annual statement for FY 2011-12, but I think I need a lot of tutoring before I can read through that maze. Could you please consider taking OCIL bal sheet as an illustration while you post your next lesson on ‘How to read a bal sheet’.
        2. When is your next post on the subject coming ? I am eagerly looking forward to it.
        3. I think you are contributing immensely to the cause of investor education. I came to know of your site accidentally a couple of weeks back. In this short duration I have become your ardent follower. May your tribe thrive.

  18. manoj sharma says:

    sir if u could plz send me the excel sheet where u did IV calculation of opto circuits.

  19. Sorry for jumping in late. I studied this company about an year back and the company didnot cross the initial set of filters.
    1) High working capital to revenues
    2) Huge Debt
    3) Huge Net capex
    If free cash flow is what is left after this, investor will be left with very little on the plate.
    Some debt restructuring by going for cheaper loans may help considering the attractive returns ratios.

  20. Hi. Just in case you wish to attend…Opto Circuits conference call on Wednesday, February 13, 2013 at 4 PM.

    Call any of these nos. to connect – 1800 102 1300 / 044-6688 0330.

  21. Hi Vishal,
    I must say I have learnt more about stocks in last month since I have become a tribesman here than at any other place. Mr Chauhan has also lucidly pointed out my viewpoint with this company and your response has certainly put the things in perspective for me. I have been with this company since 2005 and sleeping over it as it was giving me wonderful results all along till last year. I am looking forward to the quarterly results to be declared tomorrow and will certainly need your help in deciphering them. Looking forward to your analysis of the results and the conference call.
    regards
    PGA
    PS I have gone through the seventh lesson in the learning series and have few questions, can you intimate the email I should send me query to.

  22. Pallav Ved says:

    Sir,

    you are right , But just tell me Why FII is investing in stock ?? They have appx. 30 % + holding in company as on 31 March 13. There’s no major decline in promoter’s share or FII in last 3 quater’s , still so volatile ??

  23. Hi Vishal great blog.
    Can you pl adv prospects for andhra paper how much is it expected to rise.
    Also is tata coffee and astral poltech good buying for say 50% return in 1 yr?

  24. quantinvestor says:

    There was too much red flag in Opto circuit still people missed that…Biggest red flag was auditors remuneration which jumped almost 4-5x times in 4 years….Auditors remuneration jumped to 2 cr in 2012 annual report from 50 lakhs in 2008…Even 50 lakhs is huge with respect to size of the company…..

    CFO and PAT clear divergence from last 5-6 years…Either Company was under severe working capital stress or just inflating top line and bottomline by dumbing goods to neighbor’s store room….

  25. I have opposite views here. I am very much sure about OCIL that it will come back and it is right time now to look positively.. Yes, the past has been bleak but that has nothing to do with the company’s products.. Nothing will change overnight.. Company has gone through severe beating, when it comes to balance sheet as well.. management is competent enough to turn the table, no matter what alleged fabrication they might have done with their numbers..
    PS: I hold this stock and have started accumulating from 25..

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  1. [...] What to do with Opto Circuits 2.0 | Safal Niveshak [...]

  2. [...] is what Mr. LS Chauhan, a tribesman, wrote as a comment on my latest post on Opto Circuits – “Could you please consider taking OCIL balance sheet as an illustration while you [...]

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  5. […] attention. In fact, I proved the “dare-to-be-wrong” philosophy instantly with my analysis of Opto Circuits, despite some clear thinking about its business, but thanks to my fuzzy thinking about its […]

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